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Thread: do you put your surrender money on top of next bet at high count

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    "Hi, what i been doing is

    Lets say i surrender the hand at +4, then i would put surrender money on top of my next hand if count still postive.

    Am i doing the right thing?"


    At least you have stopped directing your serious questions to the pros, there is no need to, just ask the board. You need to realize you are a beginner starting from scratch. From the indication of your questions all of your previous casino experience has NOT helped you learn anything valuable in any way. All it has done is cost you a lot of money. Until you are absolutely clear, and know the answers to all the basic questions you been asking, you need to understand that it is people like yourself that keep the casinos in business.
    Yes, the more i learn now, the worse i feel about myself before. I was so stupid giving money out to the casino for free. Actually the best part for me to learn card counting is not making money, it makes me stop be a addicted gambler. I appreciate all the helps i been get from pros here.


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  2. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by abc4000 View Post
    Yes, the more i learn now, the worse i feel about myself before. I was so stupid giving money out to the casino for free. Actually the best part for me to learn card counting is not making money, it makes me stop be a addicted gambler. I appreciate all the helps i been get from pros here.


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    I would look at it as an educational investment (i.e. tuition). After researching, reading, practicing, etc., I had to sit at the tables, feel the variance, fell the heat, feel the pace, make the mistakes etc. before I really knew what to do and how to act -- and I'm still learning!! There is more to learn about the games than the theory.

  3. #29


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    Ian Anderson didn't mention anything about increasing your bet after a surrender. It's probably not as bad for cover as increasing after loss, but I've never done it.

    OTOH I decrease my bet by half after a surrender all the time, if the count warrants it.

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I assume the OP's question has been answered but I will sum things up for the OP.

    There is a lot more to card counting than counting cards. The is money management (a combination of EV, CE and variance), risk management (RoR or Risk Of Ruin) and the number of rounds needed to be played to increase certainty enough that you are no longer gambling (n-zero or n0 or it's equivalent inversely proportional stat SCORE gives some sort of idea for comparison. n0 is the number of rounds needed to be played for EV to exactly equal or surpass the standard deviation for that number of rounds). Your simulator calculates the optimal ramp to maximize all these aspects of the game. For any deviation from the plan it can be assumed will cause your stats to become less optimal.

    Counting works because EV, expected value, grows linearly as rounds accumulate while SD, standard deviation, grows in proportion to the square root of the number of rounds played. Even though SD starts around 10 times EV with few rounds played, as you play more rounds EV approaches and even surpasses SD for the number of rounds played. Results will fall within the bell curve percentages from EV as defined by SD:

    https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/imag...tion-large.svg

    As you play more rounds EV will grow faster than SD so the 0 EV point on the bell curve will walk further and further to the left as you accumulate rounds. The effect is you are more and more likely to show a profit as rounds accumulate. When you reach n0 rounds the zero point is at -1 SD. Since SD grows with the square root of rounds played at 4*n0 the 0 EV point will be at -2 SD's. Similarly the EV = 0 point will be at -3SD after 9 times n0 rounds. In this way counting works over time if you follow your game plan.

    If you stack your surrender money on your bet n0 will get larger which will hurt the likelihood you will be ahead over time which is the most important statistic. Your EV will go up if you stack it but as you can see the way certainty is an exponential function of rounds played the cost to certainty is worse than the gain of EV. As certainty is reduced you must play far more rounds to get to a point you aren't gambling and the stats work to make you a likely winner.
    3
    Though your answer is correct (assuming since I didn't read it), it's totally useless for the OP, since he doesn't have a fucking clue what you're talking about (okay, I read some if it).

    You seriously need to learn how to structure an answer for the audience that you're directing it to.

  5. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by scroogemcduck View Post
    "Ian Anderson didn't mention anything about increasing your bet after a surrender."
    Ian Anderson wrote two (2) books. The first was dreadful. After that fiasco, he changed the book's title and completely re-wrote it.

    You need to note the copyright date(s). There is some good advice there though most of it is rather severely outdated, and was never

    intended for those of us mere mortals who do not play at tables with $100 minimums with naive pit critters and weak surveillance.

  6. #32


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The use is to show him what he needs to learn to be successful. If you don't give the newbies direction they are almost certain to fail. He should be studying up on these terms now and asking why they are so important. You can teach a chimp to count and play but he will never be successful unless he learns the math of the game.
    He still won't have a fucking clue, because he still can't understand the hieroglyphics telling him what direction to go. Make it simple.

    Part of being a genius is being able to dialogue with virtually anyone at virtually any level. I'll leave the meaning if that for others to discern.

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    He still won't have a fucking clue, because he still can't understand the hieroglyphics telling him what direction to go. Make it simple.

    Part of being a genius is being able to dialogue with virtually anyone at virtually any level. I'll leave the meaning if that for others to discern.
    Why are you lobbing moses softballs? I suspect he will repeat his best engineers analogy.
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Galvin View Post
    Why are you lobbing moses softballs? I suspect he will repeat his best engineers analogy.
    It wasn't Moses I was lobbing to

  9. #35


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I think he should understand the answer his question and be shown why the answer is such even if he doesn't understand it, yet. He will learn the answer and be shown what he needs top understand in order to answer questions for himself. I never assume a person is too dim to understand. I make the explanation as simple as possible without missing the point. He know understands what he must know to be successful. He may not learn it for a long time but maybe he won't run out and bust his BR by getting answers to his questions without understanding how much more he needs to learn before he is ready to be an AP in BJ. I have trained some to count extremely advanced stuff. I don't train beginners but still after training them in the most advanced methods I still have to train them how to win money using it. Most newbies think you just show up and play whatever you find. That is the recipe for disaster. They learned to count proficiently, which is just enough to get themselves in big trouble with todays conditions. Applying all parts of the math of the game to actual play will allow them to win consistently and feel they are in control rather than at the mercy of variance. It is all about increasing the certainty of your results and how to choose when and where to play to increase certainty the most.
    Not sure why you're so insistent on showing a guy an answer he can't understand. It starts with baby steps. Let him learn 1 thing at a time, give his balls a scratch while he ponders - oh, and just to clarify, that's for him to scratch his own balls, not for you to show him how.

    Geez, if I had you as a teacher when I started, I would have quickly lost interest. I read lots, practiced lots, pondered lots, scratched lots. It takes time to build that base of knowledge even the base is established, provided your motivated, knowledge is absirbed at a geometric rate.

    We're all different we learn in different ways. Scratching gives me ideas.

  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I gave him his answer. I explained what he may not understand. HE won't promoting or demoting situations because they are close to the next bin since he knows it will deviate from the plan that is based on all the stats. I gave him enough info so he won't make a lot of mistakes even if he doesn't understand what I said. I just give people more credit than most. Flash and I get people all the time that are being brought up with baby steps and a simple approach. They are being wiped out by the advice of those trying to help them get started. In a short time of teaching them what is important to understand before they go to a casino they are ready. For their own safety they should learn the statistical stuff of money management before they learn to count. Or at least get started at understanding it. Then when they are good enough at counting to play they don't get killed so readily. If I mentor someone they have to do both at the same time because they will be months learning to be proficient at using any count I would teach them. Even after understanding the statistics used for normal counting they may never understand the stats used for my approach because you need to unlearn the stuff you learned first. I see few with what it takes to be in my graduate class. I am not prejudging the OP. I give him the credit to either understand or research my answer. If he doesn't have that ability he is probably going to get wiped out anyway.
    Thanks for spend time answer my question three


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  11. #37


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    Quote Originally Posted by abc4000 View Post
    Thanks for spend time answer my question three


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    Do you understand it though?

  12. #38


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I assume the OP's question has been answered but I will sum things up for the OP.

    There is a lot more to card counting than counting cards. The is money management (a combination of EV, CE and variance), risk management (RoR or Risk Of Ruin) and the number of rounds needed to be played to increase certainty enough that you are no longer gambling (n-zero or n0 or it's equivalent inversely proportional stat SCORE gives some sort of idea for comparison. n0 is the number of rounds needed to be played for EV to exactly equal or surpass the standard deviation for that number of rounds). Your simulator calculates the optimal ramp to maximize all these aspects of the game. For any deviation from the plan it can be assumed will cause your stats to become less optimal.

    Counting works because EV, expected value, grows linearly as rounds accumulate while SD, standard deviation, grows in proportion to the square root of the number of rounds played. Even though SD starts around 10 times EV with few rounds played, as you play more rounds EV approaches and even surpasses SD for the number of rounds played. Results will fall within the bell curve percentages from EV as defined by SD:

    https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/imag...tion-large.svg

    As you play more rounds EV will grow faster than SD so the 0 EV point on the bell curve will walk further and further to the left as you accumulate rounds. The effect is you are more and more likely to show a profit as rounds accumulate. When you reach n0 rounds the zero point is at -1 SD. Since SD grows with the square root of rounds played at 4*n0 the 0 EV point will be at -2 SD's. Similarly the EV = 0 point will be at -3SD after 9 times n0 rounds. In this way counting works over time if you follow your game plan.

    If you stack your surrender money on your bet n0 will get larger which will hurt the likelihood you will be ahead over time which is the most important statistic. Your EV will go up if you stack it but as you can see the way certainty is an exponential function of rounds played the cost to certainty is worse than the gain of EV. As certainty is reduced you must play far more rounds to get to a point you aren't gambling and the stats work to make you a likely winner.
    Professor Three, the op for blackjack knowledge purposes is in preschool, "no pun intended, just a fact" and somehow you do not recognize this why? I believe you are wayyyyyyyyy too far ahead for actually helping him.

  13. #39


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    Ok guys, i know im a newb here, and be honest i dont understand what three talk about first time i read, but since three explaint so detail about every single term, and i spent some time on the side to do some research online, i clearly understand what three is trying to teach here. He show me a whole picture of card counting. Now i understand that counting card and play perfect deviation just part of it, and I thank three for spending so much time to write so much explanation to a person he doesnt know


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