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Thread: Opinion on "even money" and max bet BJ.

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    I've had the unfortunate situation of being less than IC+3 and the dealer having the blackjack, or take the insurance at well past IC+5 with the dealer not having blackjack, but there is always the most absolute correct playing decision for any given hand, in any given deck composition, and at any level of penetration and that's what you're supposed to go with. You sort of missed the boat on this taking even money in a neutral count on your blackjacks. To review and critique your play for any flaws is a positive step in the right direction, though.

    If I run into any sort of question on a hand or situation, I'll go back and review my information on that hand. It's often a matter of an extremely close call in which it's very close to the line, a matter of an unbalanced grouping or key card situation. Immediately after a playing session, I will question as to whether my betting and playing decisions were flawless, and further examine anything occurring that was questionable, perhaps write down a few notes while it's fresh in my mind. In this case, you were way off in the direction to not take even money. Live and learn, even if it means trying to teach an old dog new tricks. Go with what the exact is telling you to do rather from allowing feelings, intuitive thinking, or perceived psychic abilities to get in the way of that.
    Getting there ever so slowly, thanks.

  2. #28


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    There is a right and wrong way to play every hand. You have to decide how much EV you are willing to give up for other factors. The play, mathematically, was wrong.

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    In my OP, I did not mention that I use HiLo (Ace reckoned). Thus, in my OP, RC=TC=+5. When 3 Aces and 2 Tens are on the table, the HiLo TC is 0. Thus, it does not call for insurance/even money. I took even money because, psychologically I needed that win.

    Don and others are correct that I should have gone with the count and not taken "Even Money" but I am still not quite a professional AP, still have issue outside of Heat that keeps me underbetting at times. My BR reached $48k but I still play as if my BR was $15k. Still trying to overcome a life of frugality and bet optimally.
    Zee
    You mat not have mentioned that you use Hi lo reckoned, hiwever, we do have a library of several hundred posts where you indicate your count if preference without sudecounts, as well as your dad and shoe spreads.

    What we miss, however, is your current shortage if rub and tug stories.

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    So you'd seen roughly 52 cards and there were 5 more 2-6s played than A-10 and this constitues a max bet? Something wrong with this picture.
    TC +5 with one deck remaining calls for a max bet when spreading 2 x $25 to 2 x $150. Is this incorrect? I actually underbet at 2 x $25 to 2 x $125. It's simple HiLo, not a complicated "bin" oriented count. What does CVCX show?

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Zee
    You mat not have mentioned that you use Hi lo reckoned, hiwever, we do have a library of several hundred posts where you indicate your count if preference without sudecounts, as well as your dad and shoe spreads.

    What we miss, however, is your current shortage if rub and tug stories.
    At 69, the need is much less, Freightman. It can also get embarrassing. Now, it has to be planned with a couple of pills.

  6. #32


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    Yes, of course you'd make your max bet in DD with TC = +5. Bets were right; insurance was wrong.

    Don

  7. #33


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    Just to clarify for novice readers, the idea of taking insurance (below the insurance index) on 19 or 20 is to reduce variance obviously at the expense of EV. It also provides some cover, as these are considered good hands. Taking the same approach when having 3 or 5 makes no sense from perspectives of EV, variance or cover. This whole thread seems destined to the orange color.
    Last edited by Banker; 06-25-2017 at 02:38 PM.

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by Banker View Post
    Just to clarify for novice readers, the idea of taking insurance (below the insurance index) on 19 or 20 is to reduce variance obviously at the expense of EV. It also provides some cover, as these are considered good hands. Taking the same approach when having 3 or 5 makes no sense from perspectives of EV, variance or cover. This whole thread seems destined to the orange color.

    Again for novice players, regarding having a 3 and a 5 which I think you meant to say, has nothing to do with EV, variance, or cover, it has everything to do with the side bet alone, and what the TC is currently at.

  9. #35


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    In some locations you can actually purchase insurance right before the dealer resolves their hand, giving you the opportunity to insure a hit to 21, which presumably is even more attractive to insure below the index than a measly 20 or 19.

  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Okay. So you go from 2 $25 chips on the table to 12. Im not sure what the percentage of plays are at or above tc5. But if its more than 10%, then you are ruffling some feathers. Really Zee, this is a key barometer you should know before you worry yourself sick.
    Moses, I said that my best spread was from 2 x $25 to 2 x $150 but I DID NOT say that I moved from the minimum to maximum. Several rounds were played before one deck was remaining since the cut card was placed at about 65-70% of a DD deck. The count rose to TC +5 and my bets increased from the previous round (dont know whether I had $100 each (or $75 each) on the hand before.

    If I win a prior hand and the count goes up, I just parlay the bet or withdraw part of the win and leave a max bet out. If I lost the prior bet, I would do a bit of steaming before putting the max out. If I am being observed, I take my winnings, say something about being back after a meal and head towards the buffet. If I feel safe, I just keep playing.

  11. #37
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    I too will often take Insurance with a sub-optimal TC,
    but rather than debate the issue, I will simply point
    out that there is a purely mathematical arguement
    and there is an economic position. Recently I found
    myself kicking back with my coterie of expert Card
    Counters, a bottle of very fine Vodka and a truly fine
    strain of Cannibas Sativa, cultivated and retailed as
    "Head Cheese" ~ when a debate Re: the "true"
    <?>
    House Edge in a non-blackjack casino game. As
    you may expect by now, the debate saw no conclusion.
    Both arguements, while opposed, were equally correct.
    How the question is posed, and how we defining "correct"
    are the real issues. So we had people debating an issue
    which immediately devolved into people trying to prove
    that they were correct, and more importantly, that the
    other party was wrong.


  12. #38


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    So TC and RC are the same?
    They are for Hi-Lo, with one deck left, which is his scenario.

    Don

  13. #39


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Jimmybond 007 says he would consider insuring 19 and 20. I would more likely insure f I have a 2,3 or a 4,5 than I would insure a 19 or 20 because those hands make it more likely dealer has a BJ.
    The idea of insuring a good hand like 19 or 20 in a border line case is it will reduce variance. If you lose your insurance bet on a good hand you will probably still win the hand. Now if you insure a bad hand in a border line case like 16 it will increase variance because if you lose your insurance bet there is a good chance you will lose the hand also. So in border line cases I say be more likely to insure a good hand than a bad hand. Of course, in cases where there is no doubt play according to the count.

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