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Thread: Opinion on "even money" and max bet BJ.

  1. #14


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    it seems absurd to react to a spread of $25 to 2 x $100 in a DD. if it is a $100 to 2 x $400 that may be different.

  2. #15


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    Im pretty sure you cant insure a Natural for less anywhere, but for all other hands you can..For level 2 counters our index is +6 for insurance..When playing TWO hands i really like to insure one of the hands at +3>+6 unless its a Natural or an 11 then ill insure that at +2 because thats my index for doubling 11 v A(+4> when playing single hand only) and insuring 1/4 my bet at +3>+6 on Single hands...

    Im must ask! How could not insuring 1/4 of your bet on a Single hand if the TC is (+3>+6) +5 for example when i would be taking FULL insurance at +6?
    Last edited by Jack Jackson; 06-24-2017 at 11:49 PM.
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  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmybond007 View Post
    Consider this, you refuse the even money, the dealer happens to have BJ and your natural pushes, NOW you have your max bet out there and the count next round is even or negative.

    No problem so far, you did the right thing.


    Quote Originally Posted by jimmybond007 View Post
    You know have to either let the bet sit out there or try and take it down. I feel you can more easily get your bet down if you take the even money and pull your money back... You dont want to get into a habit of adjusting bets too much and lowering bets after a push is not something ploppies do very often.

    This above quote is absurd! The best move now would be to take a session break. If you elect to continue to play, do not compound your problems, by all means lower that bet. After all if you cannot lower your bet after pushing a blackjack which also gave the appearance of you being a good basic strategy player, who is now upset, then when the hell can you do it ?


    Quote Originally Posted by jimmybond007 View Post
    Same thing for insurance, you can insure your "good" hands like 19 or 20 slightly under the index. While technically an incorrect move you are paying a small price for reducing variance.

    First, taking even money IS the very same thing as taking insurance, and it is nothing more than a side bet. Making the wrong move, and forming bad habits, to cut down on some variance in a single hand is not the way to help beginners. What next not make some soft doubles when they are called for? Don't ever split 88 vs a ten? Where the heck do you draw the line? Being properly bankrolled, and the long term is what it is all about, not the current hand, or session.
    Last edited by BoSox; 06-25-2017 at 06:49 AM.

  4. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    Im pretty sure you cant insure a Natural for less anywhere, but for all other hands you can
    Utter Nonsense. If you have a $100 bet out and you have a blackjack you can take insurance for as little as a buck.

  5. #18
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Say you have a max bet out, get a BJ with the dealer showing Ace, do you take even money or go by count? Some AP's say they make an exception with a positive count (even if under TC2) and take even money, others say, follow the count for the decision.

    i was playing DD, heads up. TC reached +5 with a deck to go, I had two hands of $150 each, received BJ on both hands, dealer had an up card of A. Thus, TC is really now at 0. I took even money, dealer flipped and had a 5 under. Did I make a mistake? Do you do otherwise?

    I usually take "even money" only if I have a BJ and TC is 2 or more.
    I ignore all seen aces when I readjust count for insurance because I'm insuring against a ten under the dealer's ace.
    In this case (one deck left) TC = RC = +5; now for insurance after seeing 5 cards (two of which are 10's), RC is now +3, TC = 52/47 X 3 = 3.3. Truncate to 3. take insurance.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    I ignore all seen aces when I readjust count for insurance because I'm insuring against a ten under the dealer's ace.

    Joe, the problem here is although in real life you personally can make great insurance decisions, in the example other than knowing the true count you do not know the make up of the high cards of the previous rounds in the example given by ZeeBabar.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post


    This above quote is absurd! The best move now would be to take a session break. If you elect to continue to play, do not compound your problems, by all means lower that bet. After all if you cannot lower your bet after pushing a blackjack which also gave the appearance of you being a good basic strategy player, who is now upset, then when the hell can you do it ?



    First, taking even money IS the very same thing as taking insurance, and it is nothing more than a side bet. Making the wrong move, and forming bad habits, to cut down on some variance in a single hand is not the way to help beginners. What next not make some soft doubles when they are called for? Don't ever split 88 vs a ten? Where the heck do you draw the line? Being properly bankrolled, and the long term is what it is all about, not the current hand, or session.
    I am WAY more comfortable winning a bet and pulling all the money back and making the next bet rather than moving my money down when the count have so obviously changed to anyone observing. Why make it easier for anyone who may be analyzing you? Also consider the way you play when milking a store for hundreds of hours vs the hit and run approach need to vary. I've seen many counters who just bet in lockstep with the count and just look so obvious.

    Of course it is about the long run, and its not about the bankroll or bad habits. I like the assume most beginners have at least got as far as understanding bankroll requirements beforehand. It's about knowing the cost of some alternative plays that you can execute in certain situations. You draw the line when the play is too costly. Have not worried too much about the soft hands my self, the weaker counts are not the best in identifying the best decisions on these plays. 88v10? If the game has no LS then not splitting them is more costly. If the game has LS, the cost of surrendering all 88s vs 10 under the index is very little. Go ahead and run a sim, take even money on all your BJs at any positive count and take insurance on your 11s, 19s and 20s etc at a slightly lower index than optimal. You might be shocked and how little difference it makes.

    I'm not saying perform on these "wrong moves" each and every time. Just be mindful of how much cost some cover has. Do I do this stuff every single time. No way. If i'm at a local store vs a distant store I visit much less, I play the game differently.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    First, taking even money IS the very same thing as taking insurance, and it is nothing more than a side bet. Making the wrong move, and forming bad habits, to cut down on some variance in a single hand is not the way to help beginners. What next not make some soft doubles when they are called for? Don't ever split 88 vs a ten? Where the heck do you draw the line? Being properly bankrolled, and the long term is what it is all about, not the current hand, or session.

    What I previously failed to mention about is Risk Averse Approaches which depending upon which ones are used is always a good thing. The reason I did not mention this before is because I believe new players should learn the game in stages, and that approach requires a little more seasoning.
    Last edited by BoSox; 06-25-2017 at 09:32 AM.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmybond007 View Post
    Go ahead and run a sim, take even money on all your BJs at any positive count and take insurance on your 11s, 19s and 20s etc at a slightly lower index than optimal. You might be shocked and how little difference it makes.

    In an earlier post ZeeBabar wrote:


    "Jimmybond 007 says he would consider insuring 19 and 20. I would more likely insure f I have a 2,3 or a 4,5 than I would insure a 19 or 20 because those hands make it more likely dealer has a BJ."


    I have to agree on this one with ZeeBabar, although I wish he would practice what he is preaching.

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    In an earlier post ZeeBabar wrote:


    "Jimmybond 007 says he would consider insuring 19 and 20. I would more likely insure f I have a 2,3 or a 4,5 than I would insure a 19 or 20 because those hands make it more likely dealer has a BJ."


    I have to agree on this one with ZeeBabar, although I wish he would practice what he is preaching.
    I certainly agree with this when you are not counting. When you have information from the count. Your hand composition means nothing. Just go by your count.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    What I previously failed to mention about is Risk Averse Approaches which depending upon which ones are used is always a good thing. The reason I did not mention this before is because I believe new players should learn the game in stages, and that approach requires a little more seasoning.
    Agree 100%

  12. #25


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    In my OP, I did not mention that I use HiLo (Ace reckoned). Thus, in my OP, RC=TC=+5. When 3 Aces and 2 Tens are on the table, the HiLo TC is 0. Thus, it does not call for insurance/even money. I took even money because, psychologically I needed that win.

    Don and others are correct that I should have gone with the count and not taken "Even Money" but I am still not quite a professional AP, still have issue outside of Heat that keeps me underbetting at times. My BR reached $48k but I still play as if my BR was $15k. Still trying to overcome a life of frugality and bet optimally.

  13. #26
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    I've had the unfortunate situation of being less than IC+3 and the dealer having the blackjack, or take the insurance at well past IC+5 with the dealer not having blackjack, but there is always the most absolute correct playing decision for any given hand, in any given deck composition, and at any level of penetration and that's what you're supposed to go with. You sort of missed the boat on this taking even money in a neutral count on your blackjacks. To review and critique your play for any flaws is a positive step in the right direction, though.

    If I run into any sort of question on a hand or situation, I'll go back and review my information on that hand. It's often a matter of an extremely close call in which it's very close to the line, a matter of an unbalanced grouping or key card situation. Immediately after a playing session, I will question as to whether my betting and playing decisions were flawless, and further examine anything occurring that was questionable, perhaps write down a few notes while it's fresh in my mind. In this case, you were way off in the direction to not take even money. Live and learn, even if it means trying to teach an old dog new tricks. Go with what the exact is telling you to do rather from allowing feelings, intuitive thinking, or perceived psychic abilities to get in the way of that.
    Last edited by Tarzan; 06-25-2017 at 11:03 AM.

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