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Thread: Opinion on "even money" and max bet BJ.

  1. #66


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I still play 75% DD but often the conditions for DD are not so good (3-4 other players at each of the 2-3 DD tables) and since I have driven far and there are 6 deck tables one can play heads up or with just one player, I hit those from time to time.

    As for the other stuff, the big change as I moved from 65-66 to 68-69 years old is trust in my tool is quite low and embarassing. The drugs need prior planning and take away the spontaniety and thus not as appealing. The performance at the table is inversely proportional, it seems. I get better on the tables, worse on the beds.
    Zee
    The solution is obvious. Take your wife on your next trip, use the pills, and let spontaneity overcome you whenever, wherever you are. Not only will your next backoff be memorable, it will be critiqued as to style, execution and degree of difficulty.

  2. #67


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Zee
    The solution is obvious. Take your wife on your next trip, use the pills, and let spontaneity overcome you whenever, wherever you are. Not only will your next backoff be memorable, it will be critiqued as to style, execution and degree of difficulty.
    She hates casinos.

  3. #68


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    She hates casinos.
    a loss for the Trojan Games

    https://youtu.be/h63Ak9Y93NM

  4. #69


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    Originally Posted by Three
    "That aside, if I didn't factor in the aces, I would take the even money (RA insurance) on one or both of the BJ's which would lose EV for a zero variance decision and some cover value."


    BoSox reply in post #60

    "I do not know the RA number for insurance, or if they even have one, but I do not believe it would be at a TC of 0 in a double deck game. I bring it up because having two blackjacks with max bets out should deserves one, but I might do it at +1 in that double deck game.[/quote]"


    My answer on this point was flat out wrong. I was talking about a possible Risk Averse number for insurance. After thinking about it the only RA number for insurance possible is at strike point, I believe it could never be lower than the strike point, as a matter of fact using any number above or below would be wrong as it will cost you money, "you are either to late, or to early" because we are only talking about the insurance bet. I said above that I might take the two even money bets in that two deck game at +1 but it would be strictly for cover, at a big price.

    Ps: Taking insurance late or at a higher number is better than not taking it at all.
    Last edited by BoSox; 06-28-2017 at 06:16 AM.

  5. #70


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    Moses, in Zee's example the true count was the same as the running count, Don did tell you that earlier in the thread. You do not think a max bet was warranted? I guess that single deck game is spoiling you.

  6. #71
    Senior Member Emeritus Sonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Zee
    The solution is obvious. Take your wife on your next trip, use the pills, and let spontaneity overcome you whenever, wherever you are. Not only will your next backoff be memorable, it will be critiqued as to style, execution and degree of difficulty.
    Would you really want sex advice from the surveillance nerds?

    Just kidding surveillance guys. You guys are the best. I love you. Please don't bust me. Please.

    -Sonny-

  7. #72
    Senior Member Emeritus Sonny's Avatar
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    2 out of 4 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Getting back to the point of the thread...

    Not taking insurance was the correct decision mathematically. And, in my opinion, making a max bet and NOT insuring it is good cover. This was the best of both worlds - you make the correct index play AND you behave the opposite way a card counter would.

    -Sonny-

  8. #73
    Senior Member Emeritus Sonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Unlike shoes, the spread allowance is not enough to overcome variance.
    Can you elaborate on that? I don't understand what you mean.

    -Sonny-
    Last edited by Sonny; 06-28-2017 at 09:52 AM.

  9. #74


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    As for the other stuff, the big change as I moved from 65-66 to 68-69 years old is trust in my tool is quite low and embarassing. The drugs need prior planning and take away the spontaniety and thus not as appealing. The performance at the table is inversely proportional, it seems. I get better on the tables, worse on the beds.

    Zee I think the real thrill for you would be to take the blue pill and then go play blackjack for four hours with a hard on, during which you had six hands of even money. Followed by heading back to your room unable to preform, then stating but I am up $375. dollars.

  10. #75
    Senior Member Emeritus Sonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    A game of cards played by people says insure (for this count).
    Insure at a HiLo TC of 0? Did I misread the OP?

    -Sonny-

  11. #76
    Senior Member Emeritus Sonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Now, in HiLo DD, this scenario has the ratio of A-10s to 2-6s around 54% to 46%. Plus a bunch of 7,8,9s.
    But wouldn't that ratio be the same for a +5 TC using any number of decks? The TC is the ratio of high/low cards per deck. So would it matter if there were 5 more high cards with 52 left to play compared to 500 more highcards with 5200 cards left? The ratio is the same.

    But moving beyond the ratios, what we really care about is the player's advantage. After all, our bets are based on the advantage at the beginning of the hand, not the card ratios (although they are correlated). If the advantage tells us to make a max bet, why wouldn't we? Why would we wait and hope for a bigger advantage when we already have a good one? Why not bet big now AND bet big if the advantage increases? If it's a matter of risk aversion, just lower your betting unit and play the same spread. Using a slower bet ramp will mean less profit without much less variance. That makes for higher risk overall.


    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Im typing in to a small window with a two 9 year olds in the house.
    They're never too young to learn...

    -Sonny-

  12. #77


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    My understanding is there are several different ways to figure TC. But only one way for percentages. If 20 A-10s are played and 25 2-6s then the percentages of A-10s to 2-6s that still remain are 57.14% to 42.86%. If 25 and 30, then the ratio is 60%-40%. Assuming heat can handle, I would go 3 on two spots at 57%. Hooray, if I get two snappers. But if small cards come out, I would be 6 on two hands at 60% and up. Volume low. Quality High. Win Today. Play tomorrow.

    "Assuming heat can handle, I would go 3 on two spots at 57%."
    Moses, if one of the casinos that you play at cannot handle 3 units each on two spots in a double deck game why bother playing there?

  13. #78


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    "Assuming heat can handle, I would go 3 on two spots at 57%."
    Moses, if one of the casinos that you play at cannot handle 3 units each on two spots in a double deck game why bother playing there?
    Because just like Richard Gere's character, Zach Mayo, in An Officer and a Gentleman, moses gots nowhere else to go (play blackjack)! He ain't traveling to Las Vegas, California nor anywhere else out west. He's only going to play near his home in Reno.
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

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