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Thread: Lost My Edge - I'm Afraid Now?

  1. #1
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    Lost My Edge - I'm Afraid Now?

    Hello long time no see guys.

    So I'm back in Vegas for the WSOP series and this is my first time a Vegas trip was purely for poker and not blackjack. With that being said, I found myself at the MGM property two days ago and awkwardly no 5/10 + games were running. So I figured I'd head to the blackjack tables for old time sake and count.

    It was at that moment, I actually got afraid. For some reason, I didn't want to get kicked out or something.

    This is coming from a guy who used to tomb stone until I was up or massively down (with a huge 30-1+ or 80-1 spread).

    Now I'm afraid to even sit down. Because I just feel like even if I spread like 10-1 on a shoe, they going to say my name, and say, "no counting okay"?

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    Go to a small local casino without giving your name. Practice there and no big deal if they tap you out.

  3. #3
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    This is a genuine, (not a virtual), paradigm shift.

    Definition of Paradigm:

    " ... a framework containing the basic assumptions, ways of thinking, and
    methodology that are commonly accepted by members of a scientific
    community. such a cognitive framework shared by members of any
    discipline or group."


    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 06-27-2017 at 03:36 PM.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Welcome back . It's amazing how we view ourselves as static, but we're constantly changing. If you still want to count, I like mycpro's idea of going somewhere you wouldn't mind booting you, especially some small place that doesn't know your name.

    Any reason for the change of heart? Like did you have a bad backoff? I'm curious what switched in your head if you're aware of it.

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    I'm not sure if I ever got around to posting it (i'm sure we could just check through my threads) but on my last blackjack trip last year, I got the FBI waiting for me back home when I landed. Actually now typing this, it seems very familiar and I think I did. Long story short. That was a little annoying to be on their radar. But that wasn't enough to stop me from card counting! What did stop me, was losing all my local stores (I pulled heavy 5-figs from them and was using a two-people system). We ran hot like the sun and was playing like every other day, 4-5 days of the week, 3-4 hour each session, and couldn't lose. Anytime we were down, we just kept ramping until we approached the table limits. I've been playing there throughout the years slowly, but after the two-people system, we just rammed it in for a few months non stop. Just typing this brings a smile to my face. It's true. You never know how good you got it, till it's gone!

    So after that, unless I wanted to travel, I couldn't blackjack anymore. Fell back to my roots of poker and now I'm in Vegas playing 5/10 NL and a WSOP package ($10K main included) without much stress. I can sit in a chair and tombstone it all day (just finished an 8 hour session at the aria).

    I do want to count again. But my face is pretty much done in Vegas.

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    Your feelings are totally normal- and being gun shy is totally normal as well, especially once you start losing stores. I remember the feeling of desperation, losing all my local stores- losing entire states. You get addicted to the action I think more than anything, I really just wanted to play, I was desperate to play, just change my money and take my action.

    I would advise branching out a bit and blasting in new territories and conditions. Don't change your style, just continue trudging along and know it's part of the game. But always keep a back up plan in mind for other forms of AP or investments- your poker seems good, because the backoffs catch up to you- be prepared or you're in for a rude awakening.

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    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    The places off strip might not recognize you. Very nice on the heavy 5 figures with your buddy, too bad it didn't last. I remember the FBI at the airport thread now that you mention it. I'm rooting for you to win the main WSOP event ^.^

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    I think my biggest issue is that I'm just sick of getting banned/kicked and having to move to another joint. Like it's exhausting. Then again, one could argue blackjack is heaven since everything is solved, whereas poker has a lot of variables that induces stress. Anyways, the reason why I'm not considering off strip is because I uber/lyft everywhere (which costs me about $20-$25 round trip just to the strip - I'm leased out at a corporate condo, seems like everyone on my floor and this whole building is poker players lmao). If I want to go off strip, now I'm adding in like $30-$40 round trips. If I get kicked/boot, I'll need to shoot up another uber/lyft. That's another $15 to the next local I assume. Main issue - if i recall correctly, but you'll start getting heat after $250 bets (someone said this in their thread)? Not sure if the bet size / spread is big enough for it to be worth it in my circumstance.

    I assume I won't be able to tombstone this weak-spread for that long, seems like I won't even beat the uber/lyft fees. This is for shoe games.

    If I even make the money for WSOP Main, I'll let you guys know.
    Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 06-27-2017 at 03:06 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread View Post
    I think my biggest issue is that I'm just sick of getting banned/kicked and having to move to another joint. Like it's exhausting. Then again, one could argue blackjack is heaven since everything is solved, whereas poker has a lot of variables that induces stress.

    20 to 1 Spread, you just said a mouthful there that will open up a whole new can of worms! Do you think that in the back of a card counters mind, that always having the ever present thought that at any moment they might be banned/kicked, and data based in hundreds upon hundreds of casinos does not induce stress. How about going on a few months of negative variance because blackjack is heaven my god.

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    Honestly, your best bet is NOT VEGAS for games if you wanna play a slash and burn huge spread tombstone style. You need to be looking for tolerant places with lousy games- like 3.8-4/6 S17. They are still available and the key point is you can camp all day and the casino only cares about cumulative win. Yes, SCORE is lousy, and be prepared for huge variance- but heat is non existent until you reach like 30-50k cumulative win in lots of these places.

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    Moses, there is much to learn from you, I only wish I possessed 25% of your motivation, desire, and skills.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Moses, there is much to learn from you, I only wish I possessed 25% of your motivation, desire, and skills.
    Moses has been the brunt of some undeserved criticism - primarily, because his methods are not understood. Hell, I don't u der stand them entirely. Essentially, he is constantly reevaluating percentages, with his own philosophies as to what constitutes a max bet.

    At the end of the day, it still compares hi cards to low cards. It also accounts for intermediates. His apparent non stop drilling us indeed admirable.

    I remind Me of Rocky as in Rocky 4. In the middle of a barren Russian winter - I don't think I need no more sparring - I've drilled enough over the years, that it is rare for me to encounter a situation I haven't seen before (it does happen though) an old dog who has been through many wars, and not necessarily the blackjack wars.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    20 to 1 Spread, you just said a mouthful there that will open up a whole new can of worms! Do you think that in the back of a card counters mind, that always having the ever present thought that at any moment they might be banned/kicked, and data based in hundreds upon hundreds of casinos does not induce stress. How about going on a few months of negative variance because blackjack is heaven my god.
    I stand my ground, blackjack is heaven considered to poker in terms of play.

    In blackjack, everything is solved, we are merely robots doing things that we know are whether right or wrong (always). In poker, we constantly face situations that are complex and unique to each individual; sometimes the opponent is drunk, sometimes he gets out of line, we have all these variables and questions that we cannot define. We constantly doubt ourselves, could we have made more money, could we have folded and gotten away, did we have to pay him off etc. (It's a little more complex than this since there's a lot of ranges once you get to a better skill level, but i'll ignore that). All there is in blackjack is, well that sucked we didnt win that flip, well time to wait for the next situation and blast away again!

    Few months of negative variance is not unique to blackjack, in fact it happens in a lot of other AP gambling aspects. In live poker, with 30 hands an hour, it takes a long time to reach the "long run" (people say we even can't - but the common notion is 2000 hours to reach something meaningful). So you could be on a 1000 hour downswing and that's pretty "POSSIBLE". I went on a 3 month downswing from Jan 2017. Luckily recovered.

    Though we shouldn't ignore the fact that getting banned/kick/losing stores (because this THE ONLY huge downside to blackjack).
    Last edited by 20 to 1 Spread; 06-27-2017 at 02:06 PM.

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