# Thread: something i just dont understand, if there is a pro can tell me why

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## something i just dont understand, if there is a pro can tell me why

Hi pros

As a ok card counter with over a year experience myself, I understand the profit for card counting is very low even you are very good at it, mathmatically You only make few dollars a hour if you bet 100 a hand, but how the MIT team won over 10 mil. And ben affleck won 800,000 before he got banned from cadino. I understand they play alot bigger, but odds is still same small.

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I've played in straight count games where my hourly rate was four figures. you do the math.

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Originally Posted by abc4000
Hi pros

As a ok card counter with over a year experience myself, I understand the profit for card counting is very low even you are very good at it, mathmatically You only make few dollars a hour if you bet 100 a hand, but how the MIT team won over 10 mil. And ben affleck won 800,000 before he got banned from cadino. I understand they play alot bigger, but odds is still same small.

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Not quite correct. If you were using \$100 as 1 unit, and averaging a 1% advantage per 100 hands played per hour, then you'd expect an average return of about 1 unit per hour . So \$100 an hour. Which is more than most people get paid an hour. This of course is determinate by a variety of factors however, such as rules, penetration, bet spread etc and due to standard deviation can flip flop everywhere. Both way up and way down. The average is where you make the money.

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Originally Posted by Bushie
Not quite correct. If you were using \$100 as 1 unit, and averaging a 1% advantage per 100 hands played per hour, then you'd expect an average return of about 1 unit per hour . So \$100 an hour. Which is more than most people get paid an hour. This of course is determinate by a variety of factors however, such as rules, penetration, bet spread etc and due to standard deviation can flip flop everywhere. Both way up and way down. The average is where you make the money.
I guess you calculation is wrong, you need tc+3 to get a advantage 1% which dont happen offen, and you only make \$1 per 100 bet. So you winning per hour is very low. And mathmatically you need \$15000 bank roll for the win lose swing to make \$10 per hour. So i just cant understand how MIT team make millions in over a year, it seem imposible but it did happened.

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Originally Posted by abc4000
As a ok card counter with over a year experience myself, I understand the profit for card counting is very low even you are very good at it, mathmatically You only make few dollars a hour if you bet 100 a hand, but how the MIT team won over 10 mil.
In a earlier thread you started on 6/15 you wrote:

"I consider myself as an ok card counter, but i just cant win, i believe the problem is at the way i bet at high count."

"
I strictly follow this But after few month play im down alot right now, from the mathmatical point i believe i shouldnt lose, but why im down alot! "

Have you been an okay card counter with over a year experience, or an okay card counter with only a few months of play? At least everyone knows you are an okay card counter!

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Originally Posted by abc4000
I guess you calculation is wrong, you need tc+3 to get a advantage 1% which dont happen offen, and you only make \$1 per 100 bet. So you winning per hour is very low. And mathmatically you need \$15000 bank roll for the win lose swing to make \$10 per hour. So i just cant understand how MIT team make millions in over a year, it seem imposible but it did happened.

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That depends on the rules, which determines the HE, like I said. For all but the worst games, the pivot into advantage comes at about +1 TC if using Hi-Lo. Since we optimally shouldnt be playing in sufficiently negative counts anyway, our win rate is bumped up. And its also averaged with counts that exceed +3, as well as the size of the spread used. Its also a LONG TERM average. Not what you might see in one session.

Bankroll determines max bet size, which scales according to calculated RoR. Its not a measurement of EV per hour in itself.

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Originally Posted by abc4000
"So i just cant understand how MIT team make millions in over a year, it seem imposible but it did happened."
Firstly, you need to develop a healthy degree of skepticism Re: M.I.T. etc.
Basically, the team was playing a break-even or losing game with "spotters"
betting minimally. When the "Guerrilla Big Players" placed their bets they were
not betting \$5 or \$10 like the spotters were. They were betting a lot ~ often
table maximum bets. So, the effective spread was HUGE. Do you use a 100-1
employed very bright and energetic M.I.T. students. No individuals earned
millions of dollars, and I believe that there was at least one long stretch with
extreme losses.
NOTE: Blackjack was far more exploitable in the 20th century.
. . . . . . Case Closed.

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Originally Posted by Tthree
How do you win more money without changing counts?

1) Play a faster game.
2) Find deeper pen.
4) Play for higher stakes.
5) Play fewer or no hands at a disadvantage.
7) Capitalize on dealer mistakes.
8) Maximize player options.
9) Find other advantages within the game.
10) Use spotters to keep big players busy at many tables.
11) Find better rules.
12) Tied into some of the above but find more tolerant casinos.

Many of these work together and some are work in opposition.

The MIT team played with over a 2% average advantage. Let's call it 2%. In the '80's the team had a \$350K BR and over 70 team members in some capacity and returned 4% to 300% per year to investors. The team also played for almost a decade before those 11 years. Do the math. The made the money.
3
Nice post. Good advice for the beginning player. About the only thing I would tend to leave out is number 10, and only because this is beyond the target audience Of the OP.

For those on shoestring rolls especially, take heed.

What's that my father used to say? Do as I say and not as i do

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but how the MIT team won over 10 mil. And ben affleck won 800,000 before he got banned from cadino. I understand they play alot bigger, but odds is still same small.[/quote] ben won the money that part is variance , for MIt i wouldnt know their EV per max bet . Perhaps 10k( max bet) x 3% ?

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Originally Posted by abc4000
Hi pros

As a ok card counter with over a year experience myself, I understand the profit for card counting is very low even you are very good at it, mathmatically You only make few dollars a hour if you bet 100 a hand, but how the MIT team won over 10 mil. And ben affleck won 800,000 before he got banned from cadino. I understand they play alot bigger, but odds is still same small.

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A typical AP has spread 20 to 1. He bets \$25 when there is no advantage but his bet jumps to \$500 when advantage is above 2.5%. This is as far as an individual can go. Any higher spread will get him discovered as AP and banned from casinos.

But MIT team is able to create a much bigger spread using team work. A scout bet \$25 at the table. Once he found out the advantage is above 2.5% then he changed the direction his straw pointing to (or some other signal like taking off his hat). His teammate who pretended to be a millionaire gambler would join the table. Betting \$100,000 a hand until TC drops to below +1 then the big better quit. MIT team created a spread of 4000 to 1. To casinos, they just saw a gambler flat bet \$100K a hand. But eventually casinos learned it is like someone betting 4000 to 1. A super size spread. That is what hit them.

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