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Thread: card counting betting spread advice needed! pros here plz help!

  1. #1


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    card counting betting spread advice needed! pros here plz help!

    Hi pros

    I consider myself as an ok card counter, but i just cant win, i believe the problem is at the way i bet at high count. And i hope i get some advice here from an expert

    Right now i bet as following at high count

    Casino near me only have $15 table, 6d s17 game

    So i play $15 at normal count

    Tc2 - 2 unit
    Tc3- 4 unit
    Tc4- 8 unit
    Tc5- 12 unit
    Tc6- 16 unit
    Tc7 and above 20 units

    Get out the table at tc negative 2

    I strictly follow this But after few month play im down alot right now, from the mathmatical point i believe i shouldnt lose, but why im down alot!

    I have a friend told me i shouldnt play this way, what i should do is

    i should lower my bet to half after i win a big hand even the counts go up more than the hand i won, and if i lose the secound one, i double what i lost, and if i lost again, i double again, i will win eventually at high count, u chase the bet even the count goes lower than the hand u lost. And u drop u bet once u win a hand, so basically you just chase your bet until you win, u dont care whats the count as long as its positive count… Im so confuse about these strategies now, fix betting system seem more reasonable mathmatically, chase the bet seem too risky, but i lost alot for fix bet

    Need an advice from a pro, thanks alot



    ??? iPhone ????? Tapatalk

  2. #2


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    i should lower my bet to half after i win a big hand even the counts go up more than the hand i won, and if i lose the secound one, i double what i lost, and if i lost again, i double again, i will win eventually at high count, u chase the bet even the count goes lower than the hand u lost.

    If you determine that your optimal bet at a 2% advantage is X it really makes absolutely no sense to bet x * 2 just because you lost a hand. Your friend sounds like an idiot.


    Are you making any basic strategy, counting, betting or playing errors? Even if you are employing your strategy flawlessly, negative variance happens and losing streaks can be quite prolonged. This is why it is important to practice sound bankroll management and have a healthy understanding of the swings entailed with card counting. But your edge as a counter is so small even a few minor mistakes can quickly wipe out any supposed advantage.



    With a top bet of 1 x 300 you should have at least 30,000 in your bankroll so that you can handle the fluctuations. If you don't have this much money, you should reduce your maximum bet.


    It is not true at that just because you are playing with an advantage (if, indeed, you are even playing with an advantage) you will win. That is not how it works.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by abc4000 View Post
    I consider myself as an ok card counter

    Quote Originally Posted by abc4000 View Post
    I have a friend told me i shouldnt play this way, what i should do is

    i should lower my bet to half after i win a big hand even the counts go up more than the hand i won, and if i lose the secound one, i double what i lost, and if i lost again, i double again, i will win eventually at high count, u chase the bet even the count goes lower than the hand u lost. And u drop u bet once u win a hand, so basically you just chase your bet until you win, u dont care whats the count as long as its positive count…

    Quote Originally Posted by abc4000 View Post
    Im so confuse about these strategies now, fix betting system seem more reasonable mathmatically, chase the bet seem too risky, but i lost alot for fix bet

    Need an advice from a pro, thanks alot

    If your friends advice is also confusing you, you are anything but an ok card counter! Right away you should realize your friend is clueless. Why on earth can you not see this fact? Sorry I have little to say other than your sample size of a few months is not a real true indication of you as a player, that I have severe doubts about.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    It is not true at that just because you are playing with an advantage (if, indeed, you are even playing with an advantage) you will win. That is not how it works.
    So , true.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    If you determine that your optimal bet at a 2% advantage is X it really makes absolutely no sense to bet x * 2 just because you lost a hand. Your friend sounds like an idiot.


    Are you making any basic strategy, counting, betting or playing errors? Even if you are employing your strategy flawlessly, negative variance happens and losing streaks can be quite prolonged. This is why it is important to practice sound bankroll management and have a healthy understanding of the swings entailed with card counting. But your edge as a counter is so small even a few minor mistakes can quickly wipe out any supposed advantage.



    With a top bet of 1 x 300 you should have at least 30,000 in your bankroll so that you can handle the fluctuations. If you don't have this much money, you should reduce your maximum bet.


    It is not true at that just because you are playing with an advantage (if, indeed, you are even playing with an advantage) you will win. That is not how it works.
    Thanks for reply. i do little wong deviations like double stay 12 vs 2 at +3 . I try to follow basic strategy 100% of time.

    What do you mean by sound bank roll management ? Thx



    ??? iPhone ????? Tapatalk

  6. #6


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    Hi guys

    So you all think i should stay with my consistence betting spray right. But if count goes up to tc7 i bet $300 and if lost, count dropped to tc4 or 5, do you think i should chase one more hand at $300 or drop to my consistence betting spray$180


    ??? iPhone ????? Tapatalk

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by abc4000 View Post
    Hi pros

    I consider myself as an ok card counter, but i just cant win, i believe the problem is at the way i bet at high count. And i hope i get some advice here from an expert

    Right now i bet as following at high count

    Casino near me only have $15 table, 6d s17 game

    So i play $15 at normal count

    Tc2 - 2 unit
    Tc3- 4 unit
    Tc4- 8 unit
    Tc5- 12 unit
    Tc6- 16 unit
    Tc7 and above 20 units

    Get out the table at tc negative 2

    I strictly follow this But after few month play im down alot right now, from the mathmatical point i believe i shouldnt lose, but why im down alot!

    I have a friend told me i shouldnt play this way, what i should do is

    i should lower my bet to half after i win a big hand even the counts go up more than the hand i won, and if i lose the secound one, i double what i lost, and if i lost again, i double again, i will win eventually at high count, u chase the bet even the count goes lower than the hand u lost. And u drop u bet once u win a hand, so basically you just chase your bet until you win, u dont care whats the count as long as its positive count… Im so confuse about these strategies now, fix betting system seem more reasonable mathmatically, chase the bet seem too risky, but i lost alot for fix bet

    Need an advice from a pro, thanks alot



    ??? iPhone ????? Tapatalk
    Depending on the rules and the counting system you are using, you should bet

    Advantage Bet Size
    0.5% 4 units
    1.0% 8 units
    1.5% 12 units
    2.0% 16 units
    2.5% 20 units

    The trick is at what TC, you have 0.5%/1%/1.5%/2%/2.5% advantage. It depends on many factors including the rules, your counting system and your error rate.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abc4000 View Post
    Thanks for reply. i do little wong deviations like double stay 12 vs 2 at +3 . I try to follow basic strategy 100% of time.

    What do you mean by sound bank roll management ? Thx


    ??? iPhone ????? Tapatalk

    I've never seen a deviation that calls for doubling 12 v 2 at any count. Do you mean little wrong
    deviations rather than wong deviations.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    I've never seen a deviation that calls for doubling 12 v 2 at any count. Do you mean little wrong
    deviations rather than wong deviations.
    With no other information to the contrary, standing 12v2 at plus 3 is the play at halves or hi lo.

  10. #10


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    abc4000 :

    Here is what you should do. Set up a blackjack game at home and record yourself playing through a few shoes and making the appropriate betting / playing decisions. Make sure to 'rig' the shoes by putting a +10 slug at the front so that every shoe is 'hot'. I will watch your play and give you some feedback on mistakes you may be making.

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