See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 27 to 39 of 54

Thread: Math no work, not variance, it's a hot streak..

  1. #27
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,570


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    Running out of aces is accounted for in the sims. Single deck sims run out of aces just as often as you do in real life.
    Yes. But in real life you dont bet large with no Aces remaining. Sims do.

  2. #28
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Yes. But in real life you dont bet large with no Aces remaining. Sims do.
    Not if you tell the sim not to bet big in such situations. The sims just do what they are told to do. The effect you are speaking of is true about every aspect of counting. You can instruct the sim to make certain adjustments to take things into account or just use a simpler approach. It is up to you. If you tell them to never make adjustments for the number of aces left they won't. If you instruct them to make the adjustment for various ace conditions they will. You just need to be using an appropriate simulator for the instructions you want the sim to follow.

  3. #29
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,570


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Harsh words T3. i seriously doubt you'd have the nuts to say to my face. ive been doing this for 7 years now. i ask Norm a long time ago about CV Data and the Aces.

    Handling variance is a peace of mind that avoids losing a piece of your mind. When that happens. You are DONE. ive never went into a session thinking i hope i have good variance today. i play to win. i practice to play to win. i think of everything and try to remember nothing of good or bad sessions. The day i think variance is the reason i lost at casino 1 and thus will follow me to casino 2 is the day i stop playing. That's just ludicrous.
    Last edited by moses; 06-13-2017 at 04:35 PM.

  4. #30


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Yes. But in real life you don't bet large with no Aces remaining. Sims do.
    The EV and variance associated with the true count for which the large bet is recommended includes the compositions where there are no aces remaining at the exact frequency at which that will happen to you.

    Every counting system, even those with side counts misidentifies your actual advantage in the cases of extreme compositions, but these effects are accounted for precisely because it happens during the sim.

  5. #31
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    For example you can either force the exact number of aces for different sims or simply collect data from a sim in 5 separate buckets as it goes through billions of single deck hands. One data bucket will be for no aces left, another for one ace left, another data bucket for two aces left on up to a data bucket for all 4 aces left. Then you have 5 sets of data each based on the exact number of aces remaining. You can bet according to the sim data that fits the number of aces you have left. What really matters is ace density rather than the number of aces left and you can collect data in bins based on that as well. There are special simulators that aren't on the open market that could do all of this or the proprietor could make some adjustments so it could do so if need be. All that is required is to adjust how the information is gathered and organized as the sim runs.

  6. #32
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,570


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    According to CV DATA. The best SCORE in single deck straight up 2 hand 1 to 3 jump at 10% frequency come from giving the Ace a -1.5 tag which results in higher BC.

  7. #33


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    The day i think variance is the reason i lost at casino 1 and thus will follow me to casino 2 is the day i stop playing.
    I usually stay out of these conversations because I know that someone will address the issue. Moses, I believe the above statement is one of the main reasons why you are driving others crazy. No one is stating that variance follows you from casino to casino - table to table - from shoe to shoe - deck to deck - or even one hand to the next. It is always with you, and you are stating it as if others believe that only negative variance follows you. If you accept the fact that sometimes positive variance helps you to win, you can accept the fact that negative variance will be the reason you lose sometimes, even with perfect play. I know you already understand this, I think the issue may be in the way you choose to express your mindset.

  8. #34
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,570


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Zee. Let me take another stab at this. Without Norm's products and Don's book you have no chance of beating this game.

    Now, the athletes you see in the OP have made sacrifices the average person cannot fathom. They don't know they are on a hot streak, variance, or whatever label you put on it. They do know they are competing their ass off to win. For me, the game was 40 minutes of the next step. If I made a jumper, the next move was to slide behind a player and steal the inbound pass. If a double team is coming then someone must be open. FIND HIM. When the game is on the line, I wanted the ball in my hands.

    In blackjack, it is what you do away from the casino that dictates your success inside the casino. The time spent on Verite allows me to see the game. So in real live play, Ive already been in that position many times. The "game" is dictated by casino tolerance. Once this is attained? Game over. Why? Because 1 of 3 things are going to happen. None of which are good. 1.) I lose money back which pisses me off. 2.) I win more which pisses off my opponent and they can quit you forever. 3.) i remain even and they continue to watch me play. What is the point?

    Now, their upside cap MUST be equal to your downside barrier. Otherwise, you can never catch up if you fall further back. Why? They view your money lost as theirs to keep. Thus the conflict as you try to win in back.

    I dont see or feel anything between those lines during the game. Just keep playing until you hear the buzzer. A hot streak means nothing to me. Sometimes Ive had dealers point out a cold streak but i didnt recognize it. I WANT that high count. There could be a shootout going on in the casino and I'd probably just say "deal the damn cards." A tricky scenario on a max bet is that 10 vs 10. Suppose the 1st hand is a blackjack that took the last Ace out of the deck. Now the question becomes the 10. Is it the next card coming to me? Or is it in the hole? THAT's the next move after the blackjack (made shot.) THIS is the edge that Verite provides for me. Ive already been in that situation hundreds of times. So Im trained to "think" not "panic."

    So i do not understand Don and Norm's problem. They've developed product(s) that allow the individual to become a better player and then bash them for using the product. I dont get THAT!
    Last edited by moses; 06-13-2017 at 06:27 PM.

  9. #35
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    So i do not understand Don and Norm's problem.
    The problem is there is no such a thing as a hot or cold streak in BJ. In the long run you will win a certain percentage of your total bet for each individual bet in your bet ramp. Along the way you will win some and lose some for each bet level and sometimes those wins and losses clump. The clumping doesn't mean you are running hot or cold any more than flipping 4 heads in a row means you are more likely to flip a heads on the next flip. What the clumping means is that in retrospect your wins or losses clumped together a little more than usual. It means absolutely nothing about what will happen on your next bet. All your sports metaphors don't apply to BJ because it is not a game of physical skill or focus. BJ is a game of math and certainty. Your results and how aggressively you can bet depends on the certainty your count affords. I am not sure how many get the tightening of your decision bell curves reference I like to make but that increases the certainty for your bin averages. In other words tighter bell curves will make more accurate decisions on average over time. This lowers variance which will show up in the form of better stats and/or higher optimal bets for the same RoR.

  10. #36
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,570


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    C'mon T3. Blackjack is strictly a game of focus. My bell curve is predicated by my opponents tolerance. If you want Hi Opt Ii to perform at maximum capacity then a large bet frequency of 20% will certainly set it apart from the rest of the field. But if 8% large bet frequency is the line of WTF moment for casino tolerance, then you simply cannot enforce your will to get the most out of your count. Win today and play tomorrow often means swallowing your pride.

    Ive had many conversations with you (in my head) about how to squeeze a liitle bit more out of the bucket without getting hit with an ax. Easier said than done.

  11. #37
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Blackjack is strictly a game of focus.
    Yeah, focus on using the math of the game to your advantage. That is of no comparison to focus using physical ability. The use of the team focus in BJ is more like being so strong at what you do you aren't focused it just happens in your head. When I am really on I will hit a point that I realize I haven't even thought about counting for the last deck or so and worry I might have screwed up due to lack of focus. But the truth is being so practiced that even an extremely complicated approach just flows without any mental effort is a lack of focus. When you are so on your game you don't even need to look at the discards because you just know how many cards have been played. You look up less and less only to confirm you were spot on in your deck estimations until you look just at the point you switch from full deck estimates to half deck and half deck to 1/4 deck estimates. When you are that on you really aren't focused at all. You are just really at home doing what you do. It is like when you through something in the microwave and walk over to it and get there just when the timer goes off. The display on my microwave is fried so I can't tell how much time is on there to begin with. I just have to be careful using the key pad so the microwave oven is doing what I wanted to make it do.

  12. #38
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,570


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    The focus comes from practice. Then the game comes natural. Zee might be inclined to escape a high count based on his chips remaining. I will see that large bet coming two or three hands prior to the arrival. The amount of chips have no factor whatsoever. If you can see it coming then there is no need for fear or to be surprised when it arrives.

  13. #39
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,570


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Math? Of course it's important. But that doesnt mean spending the remaining years of your life trying to maximize EV. In a game of people played with cards good old fashion logic cannot be overstated.

    An extreme example. I max out 2 hands to their tolerance - not mine. I have two 20s facing a 6. I knew 15 2-5s had been played. The "math" says to split the tens obviously. The "logic" says, if you do, you could win more hands and lose your place to play. I tucked both hands and I will be damned if the dealer didnt flip over an Ace and draw a 4. The only remaining card in the deck that could hurt me. Did.

    Yes. That one smarted. But i took a short break and came back to win it back. Not an option if the "math" got me 86ed.

Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Variance ?
    By apkevy in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 74
    Last Post: 08-28-2015, 12:08 PM
  2. Expect MORE Positive Variance than NEG Variance?
    By Mickey in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 04-26-2014, 12:59 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.