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Thread: Math no work, not variance, it's a hot streak..

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Zee. Im not giving you a cheap shot. But i don't know how to phrase the question without it sounding like one. Please no disrespect intended. What makes you think you can beat the DD game with Hi lo, no practice time, and no game plan?

    Moses, does a compulsive gambler really want to beat the game, or to only crave REAL ACTION, meaning all or nothing on the line? If for example, today if you won or lost a thousand dollars and the result represented nothing in a life changing way to you would this impress any degenerate gambler?

  2. #15
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    Bosox. I dont see how he makes any money with his approach and effort. Again, I dont mean to be critical or condescending, but I dont see how he avoids losing thousands of dollars. It's just I know how cruel the game can be and the valor necessary to endure.

    If you can't beat Verite in the quiet and privacy of your own home. How do you plan to beat the game in the hustle and abnormalities in a casino?

    Norm, why did this go to the DA?
    Last edited by moses; 06-13-2017 at 09:26 AM.

  3. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    it is really, quite, quite amazing that so many thousands of people believe in betting progressions or bet selection fallacies. there are people claiming every day on various gambling forums that the fallacious system that they are touting is a winner. i believe that the reason for this is the power of the english language. words are so powerful. these phrases that they use: cut your losses, let your winnings ride, play with the house's money, leave immediately after you have won on wednesday and don't come back until thursday, quit while you're ahead (as if the gambler is never coming back), the trend is your friend. the thought of easy money combined with the power of these words is crushing the logic of these people.
    A sobering thought Drunk. One of the things i must continue to block out of my mind is how easy it sounds to make money according forum rhetoric.

    It ranks up with the most difficult endeavors Ive attempted in my lifetime. If a person ever wants to view the inner self. Blackjack is your ticket.

  4. #17


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    "Norm, why did this go to the DA?"

    You're asking why an original question on whether there are hot and cold streaks in blackjack that aren't due simply to variance wound up on the voodoo page??? REALLY??? You're asking whether cards coming out of a shoe aren't something like a basketball player "in the zone"???? What's wrong with you?

    Don

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    I didnt say i disagreed or that it shouldnt. i agree with about 98% of you and Norm's viewpoint. But no, i dont believe variance follows me from one casino to the next because i did something bad in a previous life or something. "That" would be voodoo thinking. i don't see how anyone could ever compete with such a notion in their head.

    The zone comes from hard work. Im not saying variance doesn't exist. i am saying the hard working focused player doesnt feel it like the one witb entlrlement issues. It might be turning that losing hand into a winner by hitting 13vs4 or it might be standing on 12vs3 with a max bet out because you know the deck is rich in 10s. If you are going to play the game THEN PLAY THE DAMN GAME Sir Don. Don't settle for an ass kicking and call it variance.

  6. #19


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    "If you are going to play the game THEN PLAY THE DAMN GAME Sir Don. Don't settle for an ass kicking and call it variance."

    THAT'S why this thread is in the voodoo department -- because of thinking like that. You imply that being "tough" and a great competitor, and mentally unflappable can "protect" you from variance and ass-kickings, and that's utter horseshit. In fact, it's that very attitude that will absolutely GUARANTEE the greatest variance in your results, since, if you play the game intelligently and flawlessly, you NEVER back down from a high count, even if you lose hand after hand after hand. The mental toughness makes you play on, guaranteeing that you will encounter all the variance that you are due, as opposed to those who would seek to truncate that variance by walking away from high counts in which they are getting clobbered.

    Implying that you can "will away" variance is quintessential voodoo.

    Don

  7. #20
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Assuming the same bet ramp, realize that a player using every index will actually have higher variance than a player using zero indices. So, playing better does not lower variance.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  8. #21
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    Don. Variance is dangerous. I know some very intelligent, highly respected that are in the cookoos nest because life's variance caught up to them. HELL YES, you'd better be mentally tough to play blackjack. It isn't for wimps. You are in the Hall and have written the books based on a game of cards played by people. You record speaks for itself.

    Day in day out I play a game of people with cards. You will not survive on math alone. Maybe these guys really can make a $100k with HiLo and one number to dictate strategy. If so, more power to them. But Im not got to be one of those guys wandering around 20 years from now in a robe with an open back because I thought I could handle variance.

  9. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Assuming the same bet ramp, realize that a player using every index will actually have higher variance than a player using zero indices. So, playing better does not lower variance.
    i dunno Norm. Variance is a word i prefer not to think about. i just play my game or not at all. Im tough on myself when practicing on Verite. That game pisses me off and I know what you guys are talking about. But I catch some breaks in a casino. So I dont notice the variance nearly as much. Practice is a bitch and a drain. The game is a break and a reward for practice.

  10. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Variance is a word i prefer not to think about.
    Variance is one of the most important stats to consider. It is the various relationships between variance and EV that all the most important stats are based upon. Whether you realize it or not when use the most important stats like SCORE, c-SCORE, n0, CE etc you are very much considering variance. You just don't understand the math well enough to realize that.

  11. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Variance is one of the most important stats to consider. It is the various relationships between variance and EV that all the most important stats are based upon. Whether you realize it or not when use the most important stats like SCORE, c-SCORE, n0, CE etc you are very much considering variance. You just don't understand the math well enough to realize that.
    The problem is all the letters you referenced above do not reflect correct figures for single deck. The reason is, with only 4 Aces, the deck can easily run out of Aces. But the sim cannot make that distinction. So large bets are commonly made with no Aces remaining. Therefore, more weight given to the Ace results in a higher SCORE. Thus BC appears to provide a higher value. It's not a matter of lack of math but rather having a deeper undetstanding of what you are viewing.

  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    But the sim cannot make that distinction
    If you tell the sim to make the distinction it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    It's not a matter of lack of math but rather having a deeper undetstanding of what you are viewing.
    Or not having your sim accurately reflect the way you play because you aren't using the right simulator or don't understand how to use the one you are using. Why would anyone use sim results that don't reflect the way you play as accurately as possible? many people write their own simulators because the commercial ones aren't versatile enough to sim the way they play. If you knew enough about how to use the correct simulator for what you want the sim to do you would have perfect sim results for your game. The stats would be spot on. So you don't have any stats to base your game on AND you don't worry about variance. Here I thought you just didn't realize variance was in what you worry about to begin with therefore you weren't actually as clueless as your comments make you sound. Know I find out you don't have the stats that would include variance in a meaningful way to make smart decisions about managing your play and you also don't worry about variance in any other way. I guess I don't need to ask if you want me to show you how to make that noose in the end of the long rope of uncertainty you are hanging onto. You already fashioned the noose and are wearing it as a necktie rather than carrying the rope with you. You really need to be concerned about variance when choosing games, deciding what to play or not, managing your BR, etc.

    Here you are advising Zee on a subject that requires an understanding of variance and you know nothing. Spending winnings is a huge problem for an advantage player. You need to have a plan so expected variance or even extreme variance doesn't cause you calamitous ruin or drawdown that you could have and should have avoided. Everything I explained was about playing long enough to overcome variance and be able to more than replenish your spending fund at regular and well defined intervals and usually have a lot left to be used when you fall short due to extreme negative variance.

    Defining yourself as a fly by the seat of your pants amateur the way you have should keep you from giving advice about most things that more serious players, whether recreational or pro, must consider and take seriously.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    The problem is all the letters you referenced above do not reflect correct figures for single deck. The reason is, with only 4 Aces, the deck can easily run out of Aces. But the sim cannot make that distinction.
    Running out of aces is accounted for in the sims. Single deck sims run out of aces just as often as you do in real life.

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