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Thread: Math no work, not variance, it's a hot streak..

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    Math no work, not variance, it's a hot streak..

    Moses might like the article which is not about BJ but the thing you hear on BJbforums is to "trust the math" but this article says "hot streaks occur" and it's not just variance. There is math at the later part of article.

    So, is it just variance when a dealer gets hot and you keep losing hand after hand? Is it not better to walk away, come later? Is it possible that you can get hot and keep winning even in negative counts and thus, on those moments, put out a healthy bet?

    http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page...h-hot-hand-nba

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Human emotions play a huge part in sports betting. Indeed, most of Dan Gordon's work focused on the emotional aspects of the NFL and NBA as opposed to data mining past, often irrelevant, stats. Cards have no emotions.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    My Dad was a horse handicapper. He believed the track has to give you an easy race or two on the card. Otherwise no one would come. But when folks do go they try to pick every race. This makes for a fun day. But they are also trying to do the impossible. Thus most lose their money because emotion supersedes logic.

    I know some highly intelligent people that bet on sports. Very highly educated. But IMO because they are so smart, they focus on thresholds. In time, they have blinded themselves to the actual advantages. Thus they overload on that certain game. They lose it and put themselves on tilt as the advantages go sailing by.

    For me, there is no emotion. Either the value presents itself or it doesnt. It's much like buying stocks except you only own it for 3 or 4 hours.
    Last edited by moses; 06-12-2017 at 11:09 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Human emotions play a huge part in sports betting. Indeed, most of Dan Gordon's work focused on the emotional aspects of the NFL and NBA as opposed to data mining past, often irrelevant, stats. Cards have no emotions.
    True. Cards have no emotions. But man, I dont think there is any other device on earth that can bring out the emotions in a person. It seems to me this is where variance derives.

    If I bet a game and win. That's good. If I bet a game and lose. That's bad. If I dont bet and lose. That's good. If I don't and win. That's bad. But I didnt lose money. So, if you are going to play, there is no avoiding variance. Thus preparation is your key. Know thy game. Know thyself. Because this game will teach you stuff about yourself you didnt even know existed.

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    The question, based on the theory that hot streaks do occur and is not simply variance, is whether you walk away from a good game. For instance, the penn is very good, standard rules, but the dealer keeps winning through a few positive or negative shoes and you have dug yourself a huge hole. Do you walk away? Do you lose even more and end up feeling like having been cheated? Or do you stick it out because the dealer giving great penn is still there?

    on the flip side, it's one of those sessions where you start winning right from the start, count goes negative and you think you will wong out after the minimum bet you have out is lost but you keep winning even as the count continues to go even more negative. Do you think it just might be one of those hot streak days and stay through the shoe, maybe even increase your bet?

    Or does the hot streak theory only relates to ball games, not cad games?

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    Every game has a beginning and an end. The "in between" will make the difference between winning and losing. i dictate my beginning and the end.

    Now, in basketball, i might make 7 shots in a row and think, "damn I'm good." I might miss 7 shots in a row and think, "damn I'm due." At peak competition, it might be the kick in the nuts when you took a charge early in the 1st quarter that nullified an opponents score and gave your team possession. It might be a loose ball you dove for to get to keep it from going out of bounds and maintain possession. Point is, you play your ass off and dont look at the scoreboard or scorebook.

    The day after Thankgiving 1974, i grabbed the shovel and ball and went across the street to shoot hoops. There was so much snow that my workout came from shovelling the snow of the court. It was so damn cold, the ball wouldnt bounce. It was a Holiday weekend, so no one is allowed on school property. Here comes the Principal. I'm sure he is going to tell me to get off the school grounds. Instead he gives me a key to the gym. "That" was the break I needed...and took advantage from that moment forward.

    Point is for blackjack, Norm has the keys to the gym.
    Last edited by moses; 06-12-2017 at 12:01 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Or does the hot streak theory only relates to ball games, not cad games?
    Asked and answered.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Asked and answered.
    Tom Brady in the Super Bowl is the most recent extreme example of hot and cold streaks. However, there is a point where you pull your starters because you are either too far ahead or behind. In blackjack, you lose if your opponent submits. So this is also a factor. But first and foremost you gotta have game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    So, is it just variance when a dealer gets hot and you keep losing hand after hand? Is it not better to walk away, come later? Is it possible that you can get hot and keep winning even in negative counts and thus, on those moments, put out a healthy bet?

    Just by asking these dumb stupid questions, you should not be trying to give advice in other post to members such as Zen Master Flash, and Stealth.
    Last edited by BoSox; 06-12-2017 at 01:55 PM.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    The question, based on the theory that hot streaks do occur and is not simply variance, is whether you walk away from a good game. For instance, the penn is very good, standard rules, but the dealer keeps winning through a few positive or negative shoes and you have dug yourself a huge hole. Do you walk away? Do you lose even more and end up feeling like having been cheated? Or do you stick it out because the dealer giving great penn is still there?

    on the flip side, it's one of those sessions where you start winning right from the start, count goes negative and you think you will wong out after the minimum bet you have out is lost but you keep winning even as the count continues to go even more negative. Do you think it just might be one of those hot streak days and stay through the shoe, maybe even increase your bet?

    Or does the hot streak theory only relates to ball games, not cad games?
    I would say it's not unusual to keep winning as the count goes more and more negative -- that segment of the deal was obviously quite positive.

    If I go through a deal or shoe where the count is mostly positive throughout, and I have mostly large bets out, I continue playing into the next deal/shoe if I'm behind and had only been at the table a short time <25 minutes or so. If I go on a run where the count remains high and I'm winning most of the time, I cash and leave at the end of the deal or shoe even if it may have been the first deal/shoe -- what do you look like after making and winning mostly max bets then starting a new deal betting minimum? I've had comments made about hit and run, but I'd rather be seen as a hit and run player than maybe as a threat.

    If I'm getting crushed in a high count, I may spread to 2 max bets towards the end of the deal and leave win or lose when the count goes down.

    I try not to get emotionally tied to my gambling funds -- with what I bet, I can't win or lose enough to change my life This helps keep the emotion out.

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    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    At the deal -- You have the advantage in high counts, and the house has the advantage in negative counts. The cards don't know if you or the house won the past five deals

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Just by asking these dumb stupid questions, you should not be trying to give advice in other post to members such as Zen Master Flash, and Stealth.
    Stop the cheap shots. If you have an obsession with me, go for therapy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Stop the cheap shots. If you have an obsession with me, go for therapy.
    Zee. Im not giving you a cheap shot. But i don't know how to phrase the question without it sounding like one. Please no disrespect intended. What makes you think you can beat the DD game with Hi lo, no practice time, and no game plan?
    Last edited by moses; 06-13-2017 at 12:10 AM.

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