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Thread: Am I too crazy to hit 12 v 6 on this hand?

  1. #1


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    Am I too crazy to hit 12 v 6 on this hand?

    S17 6D, PA rules. Two decks left. I am using Zen with 8 and 9 side count to combat ASM clumping. Side count is +18 (18 richer, basically I have only seen 14 eight or nine cards for the four decks played). RC=+20 so TC=+10.

    RC +20 means there are five to ten small cards replaced by five face cards. But +18 SC indicates there are 18 more eight or nine cards unseen. Using my modified Zen system, the adjusted RC is actually -16 and adjusted TC is -8. I have max bet out and all other players bet table minimal so they shouldn't complain. Should I hit 12 v 6 on this extreme condition (extreme but often due to ASM clumping)?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    S17 6D, PA rules. Two decks left. I am using Zen with 8 and 9 side count to combat ASM clumping. Side count is +18 (18 richer, basically I have only seen 14 eight or nine cards for the four decks played). RC=+20 so TC=+10.

    RC +20 means there are five to ten small cards replaced by five face cards. But +18 SC indicates there are 18 more eight or nine cards unseen. Using my modified Zen system, the adjusted RC is actually -16 and adjusted TC is -8. I have max bet out and all other players bet table minimal so they shouldn't complain. Should I hit 12 v 6 on this extreme condition (extreme but often due to ASM clumping)?
    I would think the better play is still to stand since the dealer has a much higher chance of busting with the count so high and the extra 8's and 9's that could also bust the dealer but I have not analyzed this to say for certain. Just seems intuitive to still stand.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by SammyBoy View Post
    I would think the better play is still to stand since the dealer has a much higher chance of busting with the count so high and the extra 8's and 9's that could also bust the dealer but I have not analyzed this to say for certain. Just seems intuitive to still stand.
    Right now I am assuming the weight of mid card is +2 so modified RC=20-18x2=-16 and modified TC=-8. My question is if the weight of mid card should be +1 in this case then modified RC=20-18=2 and modified TC=-1. Right now, I am assuming weight is +2. But think again, the weight could be {+2, +2, +1, +1, +1} for 12 v {2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    Right now I am assuming the weight of mid card is +2 so modified RC=20-18x2=-16 and modified TC=-8. My question is if the weight of mid card should be +1 in this case then modified RC=20-18=2 and modified TC=-1. Right now, I am assuming weight is +2. But think again, the weight could be {+2, +2, +1, +1, +1} for 12 v {2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
    Using a CDCA Program (+2 +2 +1 +1 +1) looks to be about right..The decision is very close, nevertheless..But a TC of -8 for 12v6 is overkill even for Soft 17..Im curous, did you Hit and what was the next card?

    Trust me, i know these bizarre plays WITH MAXBETS on the line Lol I remember one time Doublin Ten vs Ten with maxbet and the count tanked to negative but ALL the Aces were left so i went ahead and doubled and nailed it!

    Source:http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi?
    Last edited by Jack Jackson; 06-08-2017 at 04:31 PM.
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    Using a CDCA Program (+2 +2 +1 +1 +1) looks to be about right..The decision is very close, nevertheless..But a TC of -8 for 12v6 is overkill even for Soft 17..Im curous, did you Hit and what was the next card?

    Trust me, i know these bizarre plays WITH MAXBETS on the line Lol I remember one time Doublin Ten vs Ten with maxbet and the count tanked to negative but ALL the Aces were left so i went ahead and doubled and nailed it!

    Source:http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi?
    I got a face card and lost my max bet. The shoe ended with eleven mid cards (8 or 9) on the last hand. It further confirms my suspicion that ASM clumps midcards. Since I switched to Zen SC8/9 from Opt2/ASC, I have encountered the similar scenario four times. I got face cards three times and only once got the midcard. In such a scenario, even I knew midcard is super rich, it seems that modifying RC/TC is not wise than just playing Basic Strategy since when the midcards came out, they came out ten or more in a roll. The super riches of mid cards did not increase the odds for me to get one because ten of them are clumped together.

  6. #6
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    A handful of hands tells you something? Please stop posting this nonsense here. No one wants to hear it. I think John Patrick still has a site.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    S17 6D, PA rules. Two decks left. I am using Zen with 8 and 9 side count to combat ASM clumping. Side count is +18 (18 richer, basically I have only seen 14 eight or nine cards for the four decks played). RC=+20 so TC=+10.

    RC +20 means there are five to ten small cards replaced by five face cards. But +18 SC indicates there are 18 more eight or nine cards unseen. Using my modified Zen system, the adjusted RC is actually -16 and adjusted TC is -8. I have max bet out and all other players bet table minimal so they shouldn't complain. Should I hit 12 v 6 on this extreme condition (extreme but often due to ASM clumping)?
    BJGenius -- I think there is actually an interesting question here. Can't you just leave out the hocus pocus next time and get your question answered? It makes me wonder if you're trolling. You know adding that in all your posts turns everything yellow, and rightly so.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    BJGenius -- I think there is actually an interesting question here. Can't you just leave out the hocus pocus next time and get your question answered? It makes me wonder if you're trolling. You know adding that in all your posts turns everything yellow, and rightly so.
    I can't help it. I don't encounter such extreme conditions playing hand shuffled or in practice sessions. I believe one day people will remember BJGenius is the one who discovered ASM clumping, on the record.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    S17 6D, PA rules. Two decks left. I am using Zen with 8 and 9 side count to combat ASM clumping. Side count is +18 (18 richer, basically I have only seen 14 eight or nine cards for the four decks played). RC=+20 so TC=+10.

    RC +20 means there are five to ten small cards replaced by five face cards. But +18 SC indicates there are 18 more eight or nine cards unseen. Using my modified Zen system, the adjusted RC is actually -16 and adjusted TC is -8. I have max bet out and all other players bet table minimal so they shouldn't complain. Should I hit 12 v 6 on this extreme condition (extreme but often due to ASM clumping)?

    BJGenius007, you have a max bet out there, and, you were considering making a deviation play only because all the other players at the table were betting minimum? Does it matter? Also sounds like the table was full, which you already know is not a good thing.

  10. #10


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    By all means make the play, at the end of the hand you might have the table to yourself. If the hand busted they would think you were an idiot, right along with the other players. The real fun would be if you drew a nine and the dealer beat the rest of the table with a twenty.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    or if he drew a 9 and the dealers flips over a 7 and draws an 8 to beat the rest of the table sitting on 20. That's a hangin offense in some states.
    Actually it happened to me a lot that I drew to 21 while dealer drew to to 21 and all other players lost. I can't help it because the index play demands it of me. If I played by BS, then everybody would have won! I am called Angel of Death and the local regulars avoid my table like a plague.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    BJGenius007, you have a max bet out there, and, you were considering making a deviation play only because all the other players at the table were betting minimum? Does it matter? Also sounds like the table was full, which you already know is not a good thing.
    My max bet is only $400 or $450. If someone bet more than $2000, I would reduce my max bet and be more accommodating unless the guy is an a$$hole.

  13. #13
    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    There is no such thing as ASM Clumping. Random shuffles by their very nature have clumps of cards. Evenly shuffled = Most Definitely Non-Random.

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