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Thread: <1% ROR, with big EV, small bankroll

  1. #1


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    <1% ROR, with big EV, small bankroll

    There is always so much thought about Risk of ruin, but to me the answer is simple. Use 3-5% of your total br for your max bet. As you go through the ups and downs of play readjust accordingly(every shoe or so). You have maximized your EV with almost no risk of ruin on a small-moderate bankroll. The only negative I can see is it may take you awhile to come back if you really go on a losing streak, but you will have almost no shot of going bust.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shake View Post
    There is always so much thought about Risk of ruin, but to me the answer is simple. Use 3-5% of your total br for your max bet. As you go through the ups and downs of play readjust accordingly(every shoe or so). You have maximized your EV with almost no risk of ruin on a small-moderate bankroll. The only negative I can see is it may take you awhile to come back if you really go on a losing streak, but you will have almost no shot of going bust.
    I think the tolerance for RoR is an individual determination. To suggest a 3-5% of BR as a max bet may or may not be tolerable for a given individual.

    Individuals have different circumstances. Some may wish to accept bigger risks in exchange for faster growth. They may also have a way <outside job> to replenish a depleted bankroll. Others may not be able to replenish, and prefer to play with a lower RoR. Some people are just more risk averse than others. Circumstances change, and I think we should refrain from telling others how much BR to risk. HOWEVER, I think it is okay to tell a new player that RoR is always a factor that should be considered.

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    You are missing the point. Keep a low ROR by readjusting bets regularly with your current actual bankroll so you are betting say 3-5% of everything you have.

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    so what happens if you split, double both hands and lose. are you prepared to lose 20% of your bankroll in 90 seconds?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    so what happens if you split, double both hands and lose. are you prepared to lose 20% of your bankroll in 90 seconds?
    You would have to readjust after that massacre!

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by shake View Post
    "Use 3-5% of your total br for your max bet."
    Admittedly, RISK is truly subjective.

    BUT there are good reasons for setting your Max Bet at 2% of bankroll.

    At 5% you would set a Max Bet on a (too small) $5,000 bankroll at $250

    You then get a hand that resplits to 3 or 4 hands and 1 or more of them

    are doubles ... leading to a possible SIGNIFICANT loss of $1,000 - $2,000

    crippling your bankroll.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Admittedly, RISK is truly subjective.

    BUT there are good reasons for setting your Max Bet at 2% of bankroll.

    At 5% you would set a Max Bet on a (too small) $5,000 bankroll at $250

    You then get a hand that resplits to 3 or 4 hands and 1 or more of them

    are doubles ... leading to a possible SIGNIFICANT loss of $1,000 - $2,000

    crippling your bankroll.
    Correct me if I'm wrong here, Flash, but the Risk vs. EV gained isn't proportionate from 1% BR Max bet, to 2% BR Max bet, correct? As in, the risk factor and ev factor don't scale in a linear fashion, I could have sworn I read that in Don's book.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by shake View Post
    There is always so much thought about Risk of ruin, but to me the answer is simple. Use 3-5% of your total br for your max bet. As you go through the ups and downs of play readjust accordingly(every shoe or so). You have maximized your EV with almost no risk of ruin on a small-moderate bankroll. The only negative I can see is it may take you awhile to come back if you really go on a losing streak, but you will have almost no shot of going bust.
    I'm surprised no one has said it yet.....this is basically what the Kelly Criterion is, although kelly betting is smaller than what you posted. A full kelly bet is (EV/Variance)*BR, where EV is a % and not a monetary $$$ figure. To be specific, I believe that is a very near approximation and the real formula is much more complicated and has logs and other BS. Correct me if I'm wrong.

    But full kelly betting is very volatile and you can win or lose quite a bit very quickly, which is why most pro APs play 1/2, 1/4, or lower fractions of kelly. Not that it's bad to use full kelly, but it depends on your circumstances, goals, and limits.

    Playing 3-5% of your BR as a max bet, I believe would exceed DOUBLE full kelly. I don't know how it works or why, but I've been told exceeding 2x Kelly betting is certain failure. Someone else will have to correct me on that or explain why it is (if you ask).
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  9. #9


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    Playing 3-5% of your BR as a max bet, I believe would exceed DOUBLE full kelly.
    That depends on how it is implemented. It is possible to have an edge on a single bet of >5% through counting cards, so it is possible OP's scheme, crazy as it may be, could fall under Kelly. But I will agree that betting double kelly is not wise and counter productive for the purposes of bankroll growth.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Admittedly, RISK is truly subjective.

    BUT there are good reasons for setting your Max Bet at 2% of bankroll.

    At 5% you would set a Max Bet on a (too small) $5,000 bankroll at $250

    You then get a hand that resplits to 3 or 4 hands and 1 or more of them

    are doubles ... leading to a possible SIGNIFICANT loss of $1,000 - $2,000

    crippling your bankroll.
    This is good advice, just this week I had a hand come up at max bet where I was spread to 3 hands just before the cut card.

    I was dealt 66 on the 1st spot , 11 on the 2nd spot and AA on the 3rd spot. The 66 ended up splitting 4 times with 3 of them being doubles with none of them being above 17. The 11 did double to 21 and the Aces split to 18 and 19.

    Thankfully the dealer busted but it could have been a bankroll disaster the other way if somoene was over-betting their bankroll in this situation.

    Gotta love positive variance and scooping 11 max bets on the table. It was an immediate exit upon shuffle as I gathered the interest of two pit critters with all those hands being paid on the table.

  11. #11
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    Playing 2 hands I see 7 max bet rounds a lot. Too often the dealer scoops all 7 max bets.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by RollingStoned View Post
    A full kelly bet is (EV/Variance)*BR, where EV is a % and not a monetary $$$ figure. To be specific, I believe that is a very near approximation and the real formula is much more complicated and has logs and other BS. Correct me if I'm wrong.
    You're right.

  13. #13


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    Nowadays my bankroll is just my trip bankroll since I may go many months without playing. I like to have at least 20 max bets available for a session. ONly problem is when I do take a beatdown it isnt worth it to come back until I can rebuild the funds lost. At this point I have to travel great distances with big expenses for blackjack that I am allowed to play at. I need to get max EV. If you get positive variance you can really build your BR fast with my plan!

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