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Thread: Question re: Blackjack Outcome Calculator

  1. 05-21-2017, 09:18 PM #1
    Johnboy85
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    Question re: Blackjack Outcome Calculator

    Hi All,

    First time posting here.

    I was wondering if anyone knew the methodology behind this blackjack outcome calculator? Ideally Norm..
    https://www.qfit.com/calcrisk.htm

    I have been trying to do an analysis of a game I've found online to see if the game is gaffed, and when I plug the #'s into the outcome calculator, I see get an SD of over 4, however, when I provided a hand history to Mike Shackleford (Wizard of Odds), he's returning an SD of just under 3. For reference, see this thread.
    http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambl...data-inside/7/

    John
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  2. 05-22-2017, 03:46 AM #2
    Norm
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    I wrote that 20 years ago and don't remember what I used. These calculators are more modern, based on formulas in Blackjack Attack.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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  3. 05-22-2017, 03:52 AM #3
    Johnboy85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I wrote that 20 years ago and don't remember what I used. These calculators are more modern, based on formulas in Blackjack Attack.
    Norm, is it still valid mathematically? That's I guess what I'm more concerned about.

    Which calculators are you referring to?
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  4. 05-22-2017, 03:59 AM #4
    Norm
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    As I said, I don't remember what calculations are used. In any case, that formula has to be an estimate as the variance is not known.

    Sorry, I was refering to these: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...hp?do=calcpage
    Last edited by Norm; 05-22-2017 at 07:38 AM.
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  5. 05-22-2017, 07:27 AM #5
    ZenMaster_Flash
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    Now, this is a great and valuable thread.
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  6. 05-22-2017, 08:12 AM #6
    Three
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    If I understand this right you entered your playing history and expect it to be close to the long term statistics after billions of rounds of play. You need to learn about the law of large numbers. Your playing history will be too small to make any meaningful conclusions from.
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  7. 05-22-2017, 11:57 AM #7
    RS
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    Average bet isn't enough. Like Jacobson wrote, you need each bet and amount separately.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
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  8. 05-22-2017, 02:40 PM #8
    Norm
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    Correct. You can try to make an assumption as to variance from avg. bet. But, it'll be a guess.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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