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Thread: Estimating hands per hour

  1. #1


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    Estimating hands per hour

    I was wondering what strategy I could use to estimate my hands per hour. One of the places I play at has multiple side bets and I wong out between -1 and -2. Usually I am able to find a new shoe at a different table within a minute or two of wonging. The dealers are typical and range from slow as molasses (dealers I avoid if I can) to decently fast. I occasionally am able to sit out and observe a couple rounds off the top too. Oh another thing I should mention, the tables vary from full table to heads game on occasion (but pretty rarely) I would say on average 2-4 people at the table. Snyder and Wong had ideas about this but I would like some more feedback on it.

  2. #2


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    You can set a stopwatch on your phone and time how fast the hands are coming out. The larger the sample the more accurate. For example you can time how long it takes a dealer to deal say 10 rounds. With that information you can calculate the hph. More than one sample should get you a good average.

    Keep in mind the sims factor in the backcount% when you set your self to wonging. The rounds per hour then technically becomes "rounds observed" and you only play a fraction of them. You can get even more detailed and factor in time it takes to get to other tables before you observe again. That is in cvdata.

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    What is it that you can or will do with the answer?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    What is it that you can or will do with the answer?
    Just little shit, like calculating EV and such.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmybond007 View Post
    For example you can time how long it takes a dealer to deal say 10 rounds. With that information you can calculate the hph.
    You need to include the time it takes between shoes. The plug and plug and plug and plug before they cut and turn various portions of the deck. etc etc. You wouldn't think it would take that long but some casinos and some dealers take a ridiculous amount of time even with a shuffling machine. They still have to do all that with ASM's. If you don't your rph will be way off.
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    What is it that you can or will do with the answer?
    This is the biggest factor in assessing your hourly. Your EV is in dollars per 100 rounds. Your hourly depends on how many rounds are dealt. So you have this lightning fast dealer cutting off 1.5 decks of 6 and a slowwwww dealer cutting of .5 decks. The latter is dealing at 250 rounds an hour and the former at 40 rounds an hour. Which do you pick?

    Well your sim says at 1.5 decks cut off you make $58/100 rounds and at .5 cut off you make $178/100 rounds. Which game has the higher hourly? Which would you pick?

    1.5 decks cut off at 250 rounds per hour:
    ($58/100 rounds)*(250 rounds/hr) = $145/hr

    0.5 cut off at 40 rounds per hour:
    ($178/100 rounds)*(40 rounds/hr) = $71/hr

    Without the information you might think you are earning over triple the hourly at the deeper pen but in reality the shallow pen with a fast game has over twice the hourly of the deep pen and slow game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    You need to include the time it takes between shoes. The plug and plug and plug and plug before they cut and turn various portions of the deck. etc etc. You wouldn't think it would take that long but some casinos and some dealers take a ridiculous amount of time even with a shuffling machine. They still have to do all that with ASM's. If you don't your rph will be way off.

    This is the biggest factor in assessing your hourly. Your EV is in dollars per 100 rounds. Your hourly depends on how many rounds are dealt. So you have this lightning fast dealer cutting off 1.5 decks of 6 and a slowwwww dealer cutting of .5 decks. The latter is dealing at 250 rounds an hour and the former at 40 rounds an hour. Which do you pick?

    Well your sim says at 1.5 decks cut off you make $58/100 rounds and at .5 cut off you make $178/100 rounds. Which game has the higher hourly? Which would you pick?

    1.5 decks cut off at 250 rounds per hour:
    ($58/100 rounds)*(250 rounds/hr) = $145/hr

    0.5 cut off at 40 rounds per hour:
    ($178/100 rounds)*(40 rounds/hr) = $71/hr

    Without the information you might think you are earning over triple the hourly at the deeper pen but in reality the shallow pen with a fast game has over twice the hourly of the deep pen and slow game.
    For us recreational sorts, playing in casinos where, at most 2 tables at $25 min are available, we pick with where we can play heads up or with one other player, dealer speed be damned. When you go with the mindset that of more rounds, you get irritated and upset when a ploppy sits down and becomes chatty with the dealer or the fast dealer cannot talk and deal at the same time.

    For me, pen is what guides me.

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    Well I guess your not ready for the big casinos that take big action well. That is where the money is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Well I guess your not ready for the big casinos that take big action well. That is where the money is.
    Holy shit. You're on a roll today. I've even read the longer ones. Good solid shit thrown out there without reems of percentages that no one is interested in.

    Nice stuff.

  9. #9


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    Here's how I estimate rounds per hour:

    I think of each shoe I played and recall: 1) How many decks did I play before I left or the shoe ended, 2) how many other players were playing during the shoe. I then do the math. For instance, let's say I played an entire 4.5/6 deck shoe with one other player at the table. Then 4.5 decks x 52 cards/deck means a total of 234 cards were played. These cards were divided between the dealer, the other player and me so we each got 234/3 = 78 cards. Each hand I play consists of 2.7 cards on average so in that shoe I played 78/2.7 = 28.88 or approximately 29 rounds. I then do this for all shoes played and add them up and divide by the number of hours played to get rounds per hour.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardguy View Post
    Here's how I estimate rounds per hour:

    I think of each shoe I played and recall: 1) How many decks did I play before I left or the shoe ended, 2) how many other players were playing during the shoe. I then do the math. For instance, let's say I played an entire 4.5/6 deck shoe with one other player at the table. Then 4.5 decks x 52 cards/deck means a total of 234 cards were played. These cards were divided between the dealer, the other player and me so we each got 234/3 = 78 cards. Each hand I play consists of 2.7 cards on average so in that shoe I played 78/2.7 = 28.88 or approximately 29 rounds. I then do this for all shoes played and add them up and divide by the number of hours played to get rounds per hour.
    As if it's not hard enough, after putting in grueling sessions, you are still working on it. If this is what you do, then the time used to do these calculations must also be used in calculating EV.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    You need to include the time it takes between shoes. The plug and plug and plug and plug before they cut and turn various portions of the deck. etc etc. You wouldn't think it would take that long but some casinos and some dealers take a ridiculous amount of time even with a shuffling machine. They still have to do all that with ASM's. If you don't your rph will be way off.

    This is the biggest factor in assessing your hourly. Your EV is in dollars per 100 rounds. Your hourly depends on how many rounds are dealt. So you have this lightning fast dealer cutting off 1.5 decks of 6 and a slowwwww dealer cutting of .5 decks. The latter is dealing at 250 rounds an hour and the former at 40 rounds an hour. Which do you pick?

    Well your sim says at 1.5 decks cut off you make $58/100 rounds and at .5 cut off you make $178/100 rounds. Which game has the higher hourly? Which would you pick?

    1.5 decks cut off at 250 rounds per hour:
    ($58/100 rounds)*(250 rounds/hr) = $145/hr

    0.5 cut off at 40 rounds per hour:
    ($178/100 rounds)*(40 rounds/hr) = $71/hr

    Without the information you might think you are earning over triple the hourly at the deeper pen but in reality the shallow pen with a fast game has over twice the hourly of the deep pen and slow game.
    Its funny you say that I have a few dealers with GREAT pen who are slow. And when I first played with them I was fairly excited but later realized it wasn't as significant because of how slow they were . Would having more hph raise EV while lowering SD? Isn't std. dev proportion to the square root of rounds?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by BakaFortuna View Post
    Would having more hph raise EV while lowering SD? Isn't std. dev proportion to the square root of rounds?
    What happens is you reach know in a shorter time. That is what when SD becomes equal to EV due to the linear growth of EV and the square root growth of SD both in terms of rounds. By reaching n0 faster you have increased certainty of results for the same number of rounds.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    What happens is you reach know in a shorter time. That is what when SD becomes equal to EV due to the linear growth of EV and the square root growth of SD both in terms of rounds. By reaching n0 faster you have increased certainty of results for the same number of rounds.
    Sorry but what is reaching know?

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