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Thread: Running for Cover, leaving a high count shoe

  1. #1


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    Running for Cover, leaving a high count shoe

    It’s time for me to challenge the conventional wisdom, if I do indeed understand it like it sounds.

    I personally have a target gain at my local casinos that I do not wish to violate. If I make it before the shoe is over, I stop. So it’s not a stop-loss, but rather a stop-win. But everywhere that I look I seem to see APs saying that you NEVER leave a positive shoe.

    Now, if you are a “hit-and-runner,” then I can certainly agree that you should finish the shoe. If you play for a living and travel a lot, you may not expect to be back to a particular store until you go “full-circle.” This may warrant not leaving an advantageous shoe as well since you probably have access to many stores. But if you’re local, and you want to keep playing locally, I say that it’s perfectly fine to abandon a shoe with a player advantage if it means that you can come back later. There will be other positive shoes. If you take an amount that violates their precious comfort zone, you may never see a shoe there again. I have been playing several local stores for almost four years now and have only been backed off from one of them.

    This has happened to me twice lately. I was playing alone at a table one night and reached my target win within 3 decks. RC was +10 so I parachuted out of a TC+3 situation because of the longevity factor. Lately, I have been winning on the very first shoe in different places.

    Playing to the end of a shoe and taking home a boatload just sounds foolish to me if you want to remain welcome as long as possible.

  2. #2


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    You may be over thinking this. It's perfectly normal to keep playing. No ordinary gambler ever quit in the middle of a winning shoe. Are you sensing any actual heat?

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    You may be over thinking this. It's perfectly normal to keep playing. No ordinary gambler ever quit in the middle of a winning shoe. Are you sensing any actual heat?
    At one place, no. At the other, yes. But regardless, a wise person once said on here "there's no heat, until there is."

  4. #4


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    No real counter has a target of when to quit. Just to let you in on a fact, the running 10 shoe you left, you played with a disadvantage, keep doing stuff like this, and the casino may not see you as a threat, because your not!!


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  5. #5


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    I happen to agree with the OP. If there is only 1 or 2 local casinos and you play there regularly, say 2-5 times a week, play with a card, everyone knows you and you win often enough, the best way to throw off heat (don't overdo it, do it when you sense heat, etc.) is to quit on a positive shoe, take a bathroom break or even say you have a phone call to make and step away. Very soon you are seen as a good ploppy player that is lucky but not an AP.

    Folks here just don't get it because they travel often or live in places where there are many casinos. There are people who simply cannot travel. I know an AP in St. Louis whose aim is to walk away each and every day when up $200. Sometimes he plays just one shoe, sometimes he plays 3 hours (if he goes in a hole) but he swears that the key to his longevity. He has only played in the 3 casinos he frequents there for some 10 years or more.

    Its devastating when you lose your local casinos over a positive shoe where you might win $1k. It's like using an ATM, the more you withdraw, the quicker you spend and soon that bank account is empty.

  6. #6


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    I personally think it's a great idea to leave the table as soon as the count is very high. OP -- please text me when this happens and I'll join the table when you leave so as to not arouse suspicions.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaKevinB View Post
    No real counter has a target of when to quit. Just to let you in on a fact, the running 10 shoe you left, you played with a disadvantage, keep doing stuff like this, and the casino may not see you as a threat, because your not!!


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

    For this to be true, you must be assuming that I utilize "play all," which I do not. I'm not a newbie either. My long-term records speak for themselves.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    I personally think it's a great idea to leave the table as soon as the count is very high. OP -- please text me when this happens and I'll join the table when you leave so as to not arouse suspicions.
    I don't leave when it's very high. I stay when it's very high. I was playing with a super high count for many hands and killing it. I only leave when I hit my target win rate.

    This "problem" doesn't happen very often. This is only a situation where you win practically every hand that comes your way.

  9. #9


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    To my recollection, I've Voluntarily left a high count table a couple of times.
    A sudden bad nosebleed (get them every once in a while), and sizzling super devlish indescribable heat,

    I've also bet minimum at high counts a couple of times on hand shuffled shoes, where I was not the cutter. Further, I've sensed doom on ASM's several times, where I have not nearly made my max bet, but was still well over. minimum - waiting big bets, so to speak. There's more than one hidden message here.

    I've also "slowed" or "reduced" a win to stay under reporting thresholds.

    That being said, high counts are what I play for. I fear the swings, yet welcome the opportunities of max splits with doubles. The failures hurt, but are sweetly compensated by the numerically superior successes.

    Leaving a high count on a stop win basis seems a bit silly. Obviously, there are times when I wish I would have, but you can't predict a future outcome, and at the end of the day playing similar scenarios multiple times, I'm ahead.

  10. #10


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    The OP is talking about doing it for longevity reason . IMO don't do it too much , You better for a very good reason for leaving a high count. Also you should have other alternatives. There ,you got some validation from me.

  11. #11


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    Here is a question- whats the fastest that you guys have caught heat? If you were 3 decks into your first shoe, I can't imagine you were playing long enough for your play to even start being analyzed unless you were betting really big and drew attention from your buy-in alone. I would understand ducking out if its been a grinding session, but not before the pit even notes your buy-in amount. My fastest win was one shoe of DD. It was heads up, very first shoe, blazed through and left. Maybe 3 minutes from placing my bet to coloring. It was roughly 7x my hour EV. I believe by the 3rd hand I was max bet and won or pushed every hand there after aside from 1 loss.

  12. #12


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    Stevie
    I'll comment further later. It's time to pick up my grandson from
    Nursery school, and enjoy lunch. A comment first.

    You haven't said it, or suggested it. I've noticed it though. Buried in your post above are signs of really good newbie development . Thought I would mention it.

  13. #13
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    I never saw a casino that thinks you are a threat because you win too much in one shoe. It is what you do after that makes you a threat. Do you decide that isn't enough and keep playing? If they suspect your an AP that may get you threat status.Threat isn't a short term term. It is about how likely you are to ruin their day, week, month or quarter. You bet big you are going to win and lose big but if you leave only when you have no advantage while not winning or losing too much your threat level should be felt as small. If it looks like your goal is to have a crushing win then you make them uncomfortable. If you lose too much exposing that you are well funded your threat status goes up. If you lose more than you wanted to show them you may want to take a break for a while from that store to give the illusion that they really hurt your BR. Or you can play with a noticeably lower ramp the next time although they might not notice that.

    Longevity is about allowing them to have their delusions and not letting them jump to the hurtful conclusions while leading them to preferred wrong conclusions. If a place is looking for a reason to 86 anyone that wins you will get the axe in short order no matter what you do. If a place is looking for reasons to let people play you want to make it easy for them to find lots of reasons. Just try to think of things as what is reasonable for a nonthreatening AP to do. Finishing a good shoe and leaving is reasonable. Visiting too often, staying too long and seeming to try to win too much in either the short term or long term is not. Each casino is different even within a chain of casinos and within a casino times of day can be different when it comes to tolerance. Playing during crowded times may be frowned upon as you are taking a seat that losers can't play. But playing at uncrowded times you are helping open tables and getting people that won't play an empty table to play. Tipping will make you a more desirable player. Just like the latter being a stiff is taking up a seat that a tipper could play. Obviously the dealers like tippers but so do the suits. I know some use counts so weak they feel they can't afford to tip and they may be right. This is all just scratching the surface of playing for longevity but it is a start.

    I know I have noticed that at really busy times pen tends to suck. This is counterintuitive because that is when they should give the best pen for their own greedy reasons. What that says is they think they can't protect their games when it is crowded so they offer games worsened enough that they don't need protection. Then when it is not crowded they start cutting deep again because they have the resources to feel like they can protect the games (Being tolerated during these times is an art form). Like I said you must allow the casinos their delusions. At these times they are willing to trade off how they benefit from you being there with a feeling of a nonthreatening AP.

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