No bust strategy in Positive counts!?

**RoadWarrior** · 05-01-2017, 04:20 PM

The more i think about this, the more it make sense..! I am also playing on casino veritee and have do really well compared to normal counting. I have outperformed counting in way less time!! Yes short term data!, but really make sense. No bust strategy of course doesn't work normally! But my strategy is COMBINING card counting and no bust!

The strategy is follows:! Play basic strategy at TC 0 and below. Once +1 or higher and you have total hand of 12 throughh 16 you never take a card. You use the normal double and split index as you normally would when counting, BuT the main strategy is to not take bust card Ever!! Also you never surrender! Everything else you play as you normal do.

To me its common sense this strategy! We all know we won't make more hands than dealer even when counting and that's because we bust first when taking card! So do NOT take bust cards at TC 0 , -1 , ETC. Why we taking cards if there are more 10s and A's left in shoe?!! Its ok if its TC 0 or -1 or lower to take hit, but not PLUS counts!! Most of the time when dealer has 10, he has stiff under hole card, but we bust first by hitting 12-16 and we lose. Let the dealer take BUST card!

My no bust strategy is ONLY for PLUS counts +1 or higher never hit 12-16! I think there is a huge conspiracy in blackjCk by the card counting play strategy! Card counting works for betting! But the play strategy is very wrong in Positive Counts!!!

**Freightman** · 05-01-2017, 06:24 PM

Play your a system fir a while - then - report back.

RS · 05-01-2017, 08:30 PM

Good luck, you're most likely need it.

Remember, at TC +1, there is just ONE fewer small card (or ONE extra high card) for every 52 cards remaining. Do you think 1 extra or fewer card has that significant of an impact on hitting?

**BJGenius007** · 05-01-2017, 09:03 PM

Originally Posted by RoadWarrior

The more i think about this, the more it make sense..! I am also playing on casino veritee and have do really well compared to normal counting. I have outperformed counting in way less time!! Yes short term data!, but really make sense. No bust strategy of course doesn't work normally! But my strategy is COMBINING card counting and no bust!

The strategy is follows:! Play basic strategy at TC 0 and below. Once +1 or higher and you have total hand of 12 throughh 16 you never take a card. You use the normal double and split index as you normally would when counting, BuT the main strategy is to not take bust card Ever!! Also you never surrender! Everything else you play as you normal do.

To me its common sense this strategy! We all know we won't make more hands than dealer even when counting and that's because we bust first when taking card! So do NOT take bust cards at TC 0 , -1 , ETC. Why we taking cards if there are more 10s and A's left in shoe?!! Its ok if its TC 0 or -1 or lower to take hit, but not PLUS counts!! Most of the time when dealer has 10, he has stiff under hole card, but we bust first by hitting 12-16 and we lose. Let the dealer take BUST card!

My no bust strategy is ONLY for PLUS counts +1 or higher never hit 12-16! I think there is a huge conspiracy in blackjCk by the card counting play strategy! Card counting works for betting! But the play strategy is very wrong in Positive Counts!!!

This is the side effect of casino using ASM manipulation. I started a thread "More on ASM manipulation" in the disadvantage forum to discuss the same topic. Basically you are on the right track. After I carefully observe how ploppies with no bust strategy, Basic Strategy players and counters play, I reach similar conclusion that the former outperforms the latter two. This is why.

On beast mode, ASM carefully puts more mid cards to mix with face cards when there is surplus of face cards. It creates more hands like 14/15/16 vs 7/8/9/T when TC is very high. (I saw in the suspicious casinos, when TC is very high, mid cards richness is usually even higher. Theoretically surplus of face cards should have no correlation with surplus of mid cards. Because of the correlation, when players are supposed to get 20 or 21 due to high TC, they get 14/15/16/17/18/19/20/21 instead. With surplus of mid card count higher than that of face card count, chance of 14/15/16/17/18 is higher than 20/21.) Meanwhile, the next card coming from the shoe if the player chooses to hit is more likely 7/8/9/T than 2/3/4/5. With more bust cards to get in the 14/15/16 scenarios, no bust strategy is better than Basic Strategy or any counting system index play. However, you are wrong with your no bust strategy. My suggestion is that only using no bust strategy if players hand is 14/15/16. Index play works perfectly on player total 13. And more importantly, when TC is high, players should hit more on their 12 because the increasing chance of 7/8/9 mid cards. You probably want to hit 12 v 2/3/4 if you don't have the exact side count of 7/8/9.

That being said. This only applies after a long observation on your casino that ploppies with particular no bust strategy outperforms Basic Strategy players, random strategy ploppies and counters. Most of the time, traditional counting system should work.

**moses** · 05-01-2017, 09:30 PM

Guys, there is only so much your brain can perform efficiently. Now if we are talking multi deck I will bow out and defer to T3 or Tarzan. But in pitch, it comes down to what is played vs what remains. For instance, if the 2-7s plus the Ace is 4+ the 8-10s in single deck, then you will allows have a 5O% chance of drawing to 19,20,21. Quite often, a conventional count will be positive but a hit is worth taking on 12vs4 13vs2,3 because 6-9s are richer than the 10s.

It's just a different way of seeing the game.

**Jabberwocky** · 05-02-2017, 03:38 AM

Originally Posted by moses

Guys, there is only so much your brain can perform efficiently. Now if we are talking multi deck I will bow out and defer to T3 or Tarzan. But in pitch, it comes down to what is played vs what remains. For instance, if the 2-7s plus the Ace is 4+ the 8-10s in single deck, then you will allows have a 5O% chance of drawing to 19,20,21. Quite often, a conventional count will be positive but a hit is worth taking on 12vs4 13vs2,3 because 6-9s are richer than the 10s.

It's just a different way of seeing the game.

That's easy for you to say since you only play single deck.

**moses** · 05-02-2017, 07:24 AM

Originally Posted by Jabberwocky

That's easy for you to say since you only play single deck.

Or double deck.

**moses** · 05-02-2017, 07:56 AM

That pesky Ace will be the fly in your ointment. It's a low and high card. Without it, why not always hit 12 And stand on 16?

**terry0222** · 05-02-2017, 08:05 AM

Why don't you use CVData to actually TEST your hypothesis? Buying the software (if you don't already have it) is a lot less expensive than dumping a lot of $ into a bad strategy. As you indicated, your sample size is so small it is meaningless.

Just for the record, I'm not much on conspiracy theories. But, if you set up a simulations in which you test your hypothesis for several million hands, then it's worth closer examination. At this point you offer a hypothesis, nothing more, and it seems to be backed up by simply some playing time. Your words: "Short term data."

I note that Casino Verite is for PRACTICE, not to test a hypothesis. It's not designed for that. You test a hypothesis with CVData or CVCX.

**moses** · 05-02-2017, 08:17 AM

Conspiracy? Many new homes were built with junk during the housing boom. Why? Because they could and there was so much pressure to complete.

Most of the blackjack books were written in the 70s when blackjack was the rage. An indicator that no one really knows is so many books were written. All with slightly different variations but yet another version of the same.

**DSchles** · 05-02-2017, 09:08 AM

This is getting close to a top 10 all-time most asinine thread on the forum.

What in God's name is wrong with you people? OP wrote a moronic post. Do we REALLY need a dozen answers to it? Sigh. Over/under for this imbecilic discussion: 30.

Don

**Freightman** · 05-02-2017, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

This is getting close to a top 10 all-time most asinine thread on the forum.

What in God's name is wrong with you people? OP wrote a moronic post. Do we REALLY need a dozen answers to it? Sigh. Over/under for this imbecilic discussion: 30.

Don

I especially liked BJGenius incorporating this into his conspiracy theories. Of course, after your post and my response, only need 18 more posts to hit the over/under.