Advice needed.

[BakaFortuna]

Hi. I am new to this community, but regardless, I began my AP career last Fall. I am operating a two man team (including me) on a 10k bankroll (the amount we began with). Since we began playing, we are still down about 2500 dollars after 440 hours of play, but we are still around 9.5k due to the slowly replenishable nature of our bankroll . We are certain that we are playing correctly and have tested each other multiple times. The rules of our games are sufficient (never worse than about 0.5% off the top). We have experimented with our spread multiple times. I will provide some detail:

Spread 1: I realize this spread is slow, we wanted to tune up our game before we became aggressive so I cant imagine my EV was anything significant. I believe this is half Kelly? We planned to wong at TC -1, but because this is so frequent and because I was backed off at a local joint for doing this, we decided that it would be more realistic to wong the moment the TC hits -3. So the spread:

Any TC -2.99-1.5: 12.5 (probably half the time 10 and half the time 15 depending on the mins we could find)
TC 2: 25
3: 50
4: 75
5: 100
6: 125
7: 150
8: 175
9: 200


We put in

275 hours at this spread and made 785 dollars.


Once we had become more confident in our game we wanted to be a bit more aggressive, To be honest our second spread still probably was not quite aggressive enough, as I learned by reading through these and other forums but regardless here is spread 2:

TC -2.99-1.5: 15
TC 2: 50
TC 3:75
4: 100
5:125
6: 150
7:175
8:200
9: 225

We put in 54 hours into this spread with AV -3709


I then read that one should try and have a more aggressive ramp with max or close to max bet out by TC 4 or 5 so we decided to modify our spread once again. Here is spread 3:

TC -2.99-1.5: 25
TC 2: 50
TC 3: 100
TC 4: 150
TC 5-6: 200
TC 7-8: 250
TC 9: 300

The reason we increased our base unit was simply to avoid heat. I have found that color changes attract more attention. Regardless, after 109 hours on this spread we have made 391 dollars.

Some more details. I do not have CVCX (yet) I used Snyder's frequency distribution in BB on a 6 deck 75% pen game H 17 LS DA DAS NRSA to calculate our EV. My math told me that it was around 20 for spread 1 28 for spread 2 and between 35-40 for spread 3. Im not sure of my risk of ruin, but I assume its high considering were now betting full Kelly at counts of 5 or lower, but I think this level of aggression is warranted at a 10k bankroll. I hope these details have given you enough to help us out. We use Hi-Lo I18 F4 plus all of Wong's surrender indices in PB along with some extra soft 19-20 doubles and splitting tens v 3,4. Please let me know if you need more.

[blueman]

What are you needing help with?

[BakaFortuna]

Sorry, I provided so much info, I forgot to address my main concerns.


First, I would ask, what do you think of our spread. Too risky? Too slow? Are we sitting through too many negative counts?

Second. Should we be concerned with 440 hours of losing? At what point can we say it is not bad luck?

Last, does anything Ive stated above give anyone any concern for long term success? I am new and am looking for a pro perspective.

[Three]

Any TC -2.99-1.5

The information you have given indicates you are likely not getting the right TC in negative counts. What rounding method is your sim doing that generated your indices and ramp? Most people use flooring because it gives the best results. Rounding is used by some. Truncating is used by a few but that makes a double sized TC 0 bin because TC 0 is all the TC's from -0.999 to +0.999.

The min bet bin TC -2.99 to +1.5 indicates you are rounding on the high end and truncating on the low end. It soesn't matter a whole lot what you use as long as the sim that generated both your indices and your ramp used the same method. If it isn't using the same method your betting and playing decisions are incorrect.

Flooring is generally considered the best because the math ends without going into decimals. you only need to know that there is a decimal to know the TC.

Rounding requires you take the math to an additional decimal place which just makes more work overtime you need a TC. Will each instance is a tiny bit more work you do it so often that it adds up to significantly more work.

Truncating ends at the decimal but has a double sized TC 0 bin. I don't like that. You average too many situations into the same bin. You are always better off with smaller bins and making the by far biggest bin about twice as large is a step in the wrong direction.

First, I would ask, what do you think of our spread. Too risky? Too slow?

First you didn't say what your count is or what game you are playing or the rules and pen. All this info is required to answer with any degree of certainty. I will assume you use Hilo in shoe games, although getting BO in shoe games is pretty hard unless you are so obvious they have no choice but to act against you or you are backcounting.

Too risky for your BR. Raises bets too slowly.

Are we sitting through too many negative counts?

You aren't sitting out enough negative counts.

Should we be concerned with 440 hours of losing?

I wouldn't be concerned about results with such a small sampling but I think you need help with your skills, your style of play and your presentation that the casino perceives.

At what point can we say it is not bad luck?

That is a complicated question that needs a lot more info but your sampling is way too small at this point. What do the sims say is your EV/100 rounds, n0, SD/100 rounds, and CE? What is your EV and SD for the current number of rounds played? Do you have any idea how many rounds of play you average per hour? This can vary from 40 to 250 depending on how you select your tables and dealers.

Last, does anything Ive stated above give anyone any concern for long term success? I am new and am looking for a pro perspective.

You still have a lot to learn both about counting and playing in a casino. You need to get this fine tuned before you should get too risky. I will wait for more details about what you are doing to say anything else.

[Stealth]

Having this level of knowledge and then curiosity to ask those types of questions lead me to advise that you buy CVCX immediately and become knowledgeable in its use. The answers and associated perspective you will get by using CVCX will be of immediate value for your game.

Just curious, but what part of the US are you playing?

[BakaFortuna]

First you didn't say what your count is or what game you are playing or the rules and pen. All this info is required to answer with any degree of certainty. I will assume you use Hilo in shoe games, although getting BO in shoe games is pretty hard unless you are so obvious they have no choice but to act against you or you are backcounting.

Too risky for your BR. Raises bets too slowly.

Hi. So your post is descriptive TThree and I appreciate that. The game(s) I play vary a bit. One common game I play is
H17 DA DAS LS NRSA about 85% pen on average. I edited my original post to include my system at the bottom. That's just one game out of a few I play at. The thing is I play at several different casinos all with different rules decks and pen so I am a little unsure of how I can give a more general description of my rules. I don't want to be too specific about my back off but honestly was red chipping then was stupid enough to bet a black chip, and I had not read Cellini's book at the time. So it was definitely because of being naïve. Regardless, The problem is with my calculations is that I do not have CVCX software and was hand calculating my expectation and standard deviation based on my average bet which I have since found out is inaccurate. To briefly answer your question about rounding versus truncating, I will just say that at true count -3.00 we Wong out and never play a hand at -3. So -2.99 was just something I said to be descriptive rather than scientific.

I wouldn't be concerned about results with such a small sampling but I think you need help with your skills, your style of play and your presentation that the casino perceives.

Any advice is appreciated. I have read BB in BJ, Professional BJ, Million Dollar BJ, A CC guide to CS (Cellini), and I have a copy of Ian Andersen's book, just haven't touched it. I would love to work with someone, but I am leery of whom I trust because I know message boards such as these can get dicey. I also understand that these books are things every casino executive reads, thus making them somewhat ineffective strategies in today's game.

[Bigdaddy]

Sounds like you're learning well and asking good questions. Your ramp is likely much too slow. Assuming you're using a level-one count, max bet usually occurs in the + 4 to +6 range. Buy CVCX and check it out. You'll see that the deeper the pen the slower you can play your ramp. But if you're playing a 6 or 8-decker, max bet generally should be at no higher than +6. You just don't get enough bites at the apple beyond that.

Regarding your playing history - I would say nothing unusual there other than limiting your EV due to the slow ramp. Note that in 384 out of your 438 hours you were up. All your losses came in an ugly stretch of 54 hours. That's the way this game works - how do you like it so far? If it's any consolation, keep in mind that the ugly losing stretch could have just as easily been on the other side of the curve. Keep plugging away and it will eventually drop in your favor.

[Meistro123]

30 max bets is not enough

[Stevie Wonder]

It may be worth mentioning that assuming the rules you most commonly play and the stated 10k BR, your RoR is around 29% with your third spread. Thats also assuming 100% of profits are contributed back. Just an FYI. Compared to your $15 min second spread being around 10%. Most of the pro's here play around a 1% to put that into perspective.

[Meistro123]

shop around for a better game. i mean you are betting full kelly so it is a reasonable approach especially if it is a replenishable bankroll but if you could find some 1/6 cut off that would be much better. also crowded conditions are really unfavourable. you can make easily 2.5 x your hourly if you can play at off peak times and find a nice heads up game, because you will get in 2.5 x as many rounds. also you do want to make sure that you are not making any betting or playing errors which is not the easiest thing to audit yourself because you probably aren't going to notice if you are making a mistake (that is if it is an error in your understanding of proper strategy or how to apply it, as opposed to a misclick or momentary brain lapse).

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"30 max bets is not enough."

Extreme understatement !

[BakaFortuna]

Hi guys. Just put in a few hours. I will get back to everyone in the morning

[BakaFortuna]

Having this level of knowledge and then curiosity to ask those types of questions lead me to advise that you buy CVCX immediately and become knowledgeable in its use. The answers and associated perspective you will get by using CVCX will be of immediate value for your game.

Just curious, but what part of the US are you playing?

Hi Stealth, without being too specific I play in the eastern U.S., but I have been traveling some too over the past couple months.