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Thread: Will you play this game?

  1. #1


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    Will you play this game?

    There is this Blackjack side bet. It is a progressive game and no one has won the Jackpot for more than one year so it grows so big. For the $5 bet, the ev for the small non-progressive part is $1.90. The ev for 10% partial Jackpot is $1.80. The ev for winning the whole Jackpot is $4. So the total ev is $7.70 for $5 bet. But unless you hit the big ones, you are losing $3.10 per hand. That is $310 per hour. Also, each hand has positive ev almost 100% so you should play almost every hand. Will you play this game?

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    You're not providing info. How many hours if losing 310 per hour before you win the big one. Sounds like it's not for the faint Of heart.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    You're not providing info. How many hours if losing 310 per hour before you win the big one. Sounds like it's not for the faint Of heart.
    To answer your question first, there can be only one winner.

    Basically the return of your $5 bet each hand is now $7.70. But most of the return is on the Jackpot (and mini Jackpot, 10% of the Jackpot). And there can be only one winner. Once someone won the Jackpot, the game will suck again with ev of $3. Then very few people will play it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    ...Basically the return of your $5 bet each hand is now $7.70..
    if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is

    you don't give enough info on the game, but if that's the ev, why wouldn't you play it???

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is

    you don't give enough info on the game, but if that's the ev, why wouldn't you play it???
    Everybody in my local area is playing it, including AP and ploppies. My mathematics is correct because their payment formula is simple. But if I did not hit mini Jackpot or Jackpot, I will lose $300 per hour because non Jackpot payment is minimal. I have been playing 3 days, almost 20 hours, lost about 6K.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    ...My mathematics is correct...

    OK, then PLAY!!!

    understand, a portion of your bj ev is, well, bj (the "jackpot")....so do you leave a table with a good count b/c you didn't get your eBjs?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    OK, then PLAY!!!

    understand, a portion of your bj ev is, well, bj (the "jackpot")....so do you leave a table with a good count b/c you didn't get your eBjs?
    It is a side bet of normal Blackjack table. Getting Blackjack or not does not affect ev of BJ game itself. The odds of getting the Jackpot solely depends on the intensity of seven's. Normally I need seven side count is 70% richer than normal to play this side bet. But right now, even seven's is 20% poorer, I still have positive ev on this side bet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    ...Getting Blackjack or not does not affect ev of BJ game itself. ...
    then go play 6:5 in Vega$....or quit

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    Well, the question can be better be phrased as 'given an edge of 40% , a bankroll of Y and a variance of X what should my maximum bet be'? And if the amount is less than $5 we shouldn't wager. Without the exact rules of the game, it is impossible to answer this question for any bankroll. What is your chance of hitting the jackpot? A bet can be significantly +EV but should still be avoided because you are over betting your bankroll. I wouldn't bet 100% of my bankroll on an ace, which is a somewhat analogous situation because it is a similar edge, because the long-term utility of having a bankroll is too great. Or put another way, the opportunity cost of going broke is too high. So it's certainly possible that even though we have a substantial edge and the bet is relatively small if the variance involved in the wager is high enough we should still abstain.


    Probably this is some progressive jackpot that needs three suited sevens. So your chance of a seven is 1/13, then you are looking at 5/311
    1/ 13 * 5/311 * 4/310

    .077 * .016 * .0129

    or 0.0000159

    or %0.00159 chance of hitting it
    So you should hit this roughly once every 63000 trials.
    Last edited by Meistro123; 04-08-2017 at 06:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    ...Probably this is some progressive jackpot that needs three suited sevens. So your chance of a seven is 1/13, then you are looking at 5/311
    1/ 13 * 5/311 * 4/310

    .077 * .016 * .0129

    or 0.0000159
    ....
    yes, I arrived at the same math....0.000015 to win jackpot...so BJG007 suggests a $4 ev on jackpot...therefore, he is suggesting a jackpot north of $267K if "math is correct"....I've never seen a JP that high in that game...anywhere

    I think his math is bunk

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    Positive EV is only a portion of the information you need to proceed -- from
    Arnold Snyder's archives, this is an article on how to calculate ROR for skewed results.
    http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    yes, I arrived at the same math....0.000015 to win jackpot...so BJG007 suggests a $4 ev on jackpot...therefore, he is suggesting a jackpot north of $267K if "math is correct"....I've never seen a JP that high in that game...anywhere

    I think his math is bunk
    The odds of the Jackpot is one in 35,000. The current Jackpot is about $160,000. The odds of the mini Jackpot is one in 8,800. The player will win $16,000.

  13. #13


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    What is the jackpot?

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