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Thread: Devastation with the shufflers

  1. #66


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    I have played in places that people say have rigged shufflers. I beat the shit out of them. The truth is the people are either bad at CC or can't see variance or can't see other reasons for results. I tracked results carefully and determined what conditions contributed to poor results. Then I avoided those conditions and my results improved greatly. These people that see figged this or whatever will never learn why they actually lose. Usually the places that seem to offer the best games are toughest to beat. They are not cheating. The variance is high on great games. The margin for error is much less forgiving. Combine the 2 and you have trouble. As the last card approaches any error in anything is greatly magnified. The increase in any kind of human error from counting error to memory error to deck estimation error exponentially increases the randomness of results when you are playing with the most variance. I have had places that kicked my ass most of the time so I went there less. Eventually I started winning most of the time and went there more and vise versa. That is variance. When you always get beat there is a reason and you should figure out why because it is very unlikely the casino is cheating. You just have more to learn. Careful observation of what places aren't killing you because of variance will teach you advanced lessons in AP by figuring out why. If you believe you are being cheated and don't try to understand what is actually going on you are destined to continually fail where you could learn to succeed.
    we'll put thanks

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  2. #67


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    I have played in places that people say have rigged shufflers. I beat the shit out of them. The truth is the people are either bad at CC or can't see variance or can't see other reasons for results. I tracked results carefully and determined what conditions contributed to poor results. Then I avoided those conditions and my results improved greatly. These people that see figged this or whatever will never learn why they actually lose. Usually the places that seem to offer the best games are toughest to beat. They are not cheating. The variance is high on great games. The margin for error is much less forgiving. Combine the 2 and you have trouble. As the last card approaches any error in anything is greatly magnified. The increase in any kind of human error from counting error to memory error to deck estimation error exponentially increases the randomness of results when you are playing with the most variance. I have had places that kicked my ass most of the time so I went there less. Eventually I started winning most of the time and went there more and vise versa. That is variance. When you always get beat there is a reason and you should figure out why because it is very unlikely the casino is cheating. You just have more to learn. Careful observation of what places aren't killing you because of variance will teach you advanced lessons in AP by figuring out why. If you believe you are being cheated and don't try to understand what is actually going on you are destined to continually fail where you could learn to succeed.
    With the counts and columns and bins you use, those machines rigged to defeat the average counter with a common count, cannot beat you and might even end up helping you T3. You saying you can win everywhere is similar to a great golfer saying he can get par on any course. Probably makes it easier for him to win as the course defeats most others.

  3. #68


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    I have played in places that people say have rigged shufflers. I beat the shit out of them. The truth is the people are either bad at CC or can't see variance or can't see other reasons for results. I tracked results carefully and determined what conditions contributed to poor results. Then I avoided those conditions and my results improved greatly. These people that see rigged this or whatever will never learn why they actually lose. Usually the places that seem to offer the best games are toughest to beat. They are not cheating. The variance is high on great games. The margin for error is much less forgiving. Combine the 2 and you have trouble. As the last card approaches any error in anything is greatly magnified. The increase in any kind of human error from counting error to memory error to deck estimation error exponentially increases the randomness of results when you are playing with the most variance. I have had places that kicked my ass most of the time so I went there less. Eventually I started winning most of the time and went there more and vise versa. That is variance. When you always get beat there is a reason and you should figure out why because it is very unlikely the casino is cheating. You just have more to learn. Careful observation of what places aren't killing you because of variance will teach you advanced lessons in AP by figuring out why. If you believe you are being cheated and don't try to understand what is actually going on you are destined to continually fail where you could learn to succeed.
    Actually your result could just be the proof that ASM is programmed to generate player unfriendly sequence. In the past two years I have seen BS players and Hi-Lo players getting seriously hurt by the clumping. I basically use HiOptII/ASC with a serious of add-ons, so the clumping has little effect on me. However, one kind of the ploppies benefit from the clumping. Read her story next.

    I call her "Girl on fire". Basically her strategy is "mimic the dealer". She hardly double or split. She ignore dealer's upcard, hit 12, 13, 14 or even 15 when the coming cards is on small clump. Normally a shoe has two or three small clumps, a sequence of 15 to 20 cards, 80% to 90% are 2, 3, 4, 6. Then there are face card clumps, of 13 cards, 11 or 12 cards are face so everybody pushes. Ace and 5 have their own clump. My most profitable session is always with her. With only two of us and she eats all small cards, sometimes I won 75% of the hands and my average ev is triple my average with her at the table. Even she is flat betting, she won as much as I do. Not just her, my observation is that if there is some ploppy mimic the dealer, it always benefit the table because small cards come in clump. In this case, "The Flow" is true.

  4. #69
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    You miss the point of my post. The point is the players that are less motivated take the easy way out. Rather than analyze why you win or lose and what is just variance and what isn't, they just say they are being cheated. They never spend the effort required to figure out how to win more from their records. Maybe they are not motivated enough to keep records. Now this is not to say that everyone that uses this count fits, but what count do you think the unmotivated people tend to use? Hilo, of course, because it is easiest. Others use Hilo but are highly motivated and figured out how to use the count so they can consistently win and how to play with enough affordable cover whether betting or playing to have some degree of longevity if they are not in the slash and burn camp (players that play so aggressively they expect a quick backoff but travel all over so they still have plenty of games they can play). You just turned the thread yellow Zee and Genius.

  5. #70
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    I'm surprised it lasted this long. Either run with the big dogs or stay in the porch. Not that the porch is a bad place.

  6. #71
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Makes no sense at all. Are you saying the shuffle somehow dynamically adapts to different number of hands?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #72


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    Quote Originally Posted by Doubletrouble View Post
    I am new here whats with the yellow??
    Yellow is for caution. It's to alert you that you're likely reading nonsense.

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