Is Blackjack Dying?

[BlackjackFeign]

I found a great game near where I live. I was hitting it hard the last few days. Two strange things happened after 4 sessions: they raised the minimum bet from $15 to $25. Then today they changed the pen from 30-40 cards, to 2-2.5 decks dealer dependent.

I'm fairly certain I'm responsible for these changes as the game which is fairly new was getting no play, and then suddenly I was winning and losing high four figure sums.

Now the game is unplayable with the penetration.

This got me thinking how knowledgeable casino managers are, and how aware they are to card counters. Everyone knows about card counting. Yes, there are still dunghole places in the middle of no where, where you can beat and make a nice living. Eventually they back you off, and you move on.

But I've realized it's just getting harder and harder as the years go on. Card counting is so publicized and known, i feel as if- strictly speaking about card counting here- its going to be finished and basically opportunities to count cards will be for the most part done. Am I wrong?

Don't misconstrue what I'm saying. Today's blackjack there are still some great games to be had out there. But eventually you burn all of them out. Then what...

[Freightman]

My local backoffs were cumulative wins. One was a clean house operation after a team pillaged the place.

Just reread your second sentence. You pounded, or tried to pound a close by game. They "noticed" a guy playing everyday winning or losing high 4 figures. They are not stupid, and the reduced pen was their welcome to our game message - tailored, just for you.

Your description, though brief, suggests your hosts were not brain dead, or that they backed you off due to a knee jerk reaction. You gave them a nice sample size against which to measure your basic skills. Based on your win losses, and possibly table demeanour as well, they made, perhaps prematurely, a probability assessment that your bankroll could withstand heavy swings - ergo, you weren't going to go away due to insufficient funding.

[ZeeBabar]

My local backoffs were cumulative wins. One was a clean house operation after a team pillaged the place.

Just reread your second sentence. You pounded, or tried to pound a close by game. They "noticed" a guy playing everyday winning or losing high 4 figures. They are not stupid, and the reduced pen was their welcome to our game message - tailored, just for you.

Your description, though brief, suggests your hosts were not brain dead, or that they backed you off due to a knee jerk reaction. You gave them a nice sample size against which to measure your basic skills. Based on your win losses, and possibly table demeanour as well, they made, perhaps prematurely, a probability assessment that your bankroll could withstand heavy swings - ergo, you weren't going to go away due to insufficient funding.

Totally agree. It's really not in the interest of casinos to increase Pen or minimums (on empty tables). The first slows down the rate of earning of the casinos and the second drives away their bread and butter, the ploppies, retirees and low wage earners.

Fact is that most small town isolated casinos opt to cut surveillance and other heat (the cameras are more for surveillance of employees and crime) and offer decent games, just being very vigilant in the pit about card counters and anyone winning big. I play at several such casinos (Caruthersville, Mo, Evansville, IN, Metropolis. IL, etc) and I play rated but I generally keep winnings to high 3 figures and short sessions, never daily.

[double up]

@BlackjackFeign If you were pretty much the only customer playing this table with higher bets, I am sure they were following you quite closely. Perhaps the better solution could have been to only come a couple times per week to make it less obvious.

[Freightman]

Think of the pit like a coyote. They are more scared of you than you are of them. Doesn't mean they won't band together and kill your pet in your own backyard.

I self entertained myself (no, not that self entertainment) when playing a downtown LV sweat factory shitty pen , shitty rules dd game. The vultures were each positioned 10 feet from either side of the table closing in slowly as my bets went up and down from 25 to 125, the latter getting a snapper. So, with a declining count, I upped my bet, and Horace Von Tableorotector launched spread eagled onto the table, self ejaculating with p,ensure as he commanded - no more blackjack for you. Right or wrong, it was their self preservation. They didn't give a shit if they lost a customer. They have lots.

[pilotzone]

Take as much money as soon as possible, yes greedy, like a fox. What happens if you don't, someone will come from out of town, and burn your game to the ground. They don't care, because they are just passing by. Plus, as found before, they could have let you play for months, which I have found many of.


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[vagabond]

New casinos open up all the time. If you're a one-trick pony, you'll probably get annoyed just at the sight of more and more CSMs. I think you should always work on taking your game to the next level.

[pilotzone]

Yes

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Nevada has 25% less BJ tables now than it did a decade again.
What remains is horrific. MOSTLY 6/5 BJ tables. Revolting.

[BlackjackFeign]

Update: after sitting through their terrible pen, and essentially just flat betting, I was told they would no longer "book my action." Not sure why. After my last session of just flat betting their terrible game, I was pretty certain that kind of cover would juice me in. I didn't even end up winning overall after all was said and done.

Frustrating because I had a great game and opportunity, and I might have gone too much.

[DSchles]

Nevada has 25% less BJ tables now than it did a decade again.
What remains is horrific. MOSTLY 6/5 BJ tables. Revolting.

You may recall what I wrote 13 years ago in the Postscript to the softcover edition of BJA3:

Postscript: It’s been seven years since I wrote the above lines, and, unfortunately,
the anti-counter casino tactics to which I alluded have proven to be far from “short-term.”
If anything, the climate for playing professionally or otherwise has gotten
considerably worse in the interim. Surveillance measures have become, in some
venues, quite oppressive, with new facial recognition software and fancy, hi-tech
gizmos in place to more readily detect the presence of counters. Once apprehended,
players are facing rude barrings and sometimes even ejections from hotels at which
they are staying. As they move on to a new casino, counters often find that through
SIN (Surveillance Information Network) — which truly is a sin! — their photo, which
has been faxed around town, is already awaiting their arrival in the next blackjack pit.

As if all of this weren’t bad enough, game conditions have deteriorated, as well.
What was once strictly an Atlantic City curse — the 8-deck shoe game, has now reared
its ugly head along the Las Vegas Strip. And, the policy of “no mid-shoe entry,” aimed
at thwarting back-counters, has proliferated in A.C. and is creeping, ever so slowly, into
the Nevada games as well. In addition, good penetration is extremely hard to come by,
as unenlightened casino managers “throw the baby out with the bath water,” shuffling
so frequently that they lose volume to the masses, simply to stymie the occasional card
counter in their midsts. Finally, insane rules variations, such as short-changing players
by offering 6 to 5 (120%) bonuses for naturals, instead of the customary 3 to 2 (150%),
rob players, in this case, of that extra 30% return on the blackjacks that they receive in
the single-deck games at which this horrible rule is offered.

No, sad to say, twenty-first century blackjack isn’t exactly a picnic! My hat is off to
those who continue to ply their trade successfully in this never-ending cat-and-mouse
game. There was a time when I felt an ebb and flow to these kinds of shenanigans.
We could always count on the pendulum’s swinging back the other way, towards more
favorable conditions. Well, it’s been quite some time now, and, truth be told, the
pendulum is stuck! All we can do is wait and hope for better times ahead.

New York, March 2004

[Bigdaddy]

Blackjack may be dying in Vegas and AC, but there are reasons for that -

As regional gaming has exploded, Vegas has wisely been re-branding itself as an entertainment (shopping, dining, etc.) destination, and if the "20-somethings" want to gamble a little bit, they can play 6:5.

AC is dead because everybody in PA doesn't have to make the drive anymore. Those idiots didn't have enough foresight to make backup plans to survive the proliferation of legalized gaming. Adios AC...(I'll still visit Brigantine to go to the beach.)

Beyond that, I think the Blackjack landscape is copacetic. Plenty of great games all over..

[Marlene]

I play rated but I generally keep winnings to high 3 figures and short sessions, never daily.

Playing 2x800 max one may have a 15-16k winning shoe
If 2x400 max, winning shoe 7-8k
Even 2x100 max it is possible to win 1500-2000 in a shoe

So either you are 2x75 max player, watering down your game to be barely profitable, or walking from a positive shoe. In any case, they will not care about you in the least. $20/hr EV at best. If they do back you off then they are complete idiots and/or a useless sweathouse, e.g. NYNY.

At this subsistent level of play you should reserve your advice for those of your caste or lower.

Anyone playing blackjack at above west coast minimum wages should keep you on ignore or file your posts "for entertainment only."