Is this Beatable?

**Morphy** · 03-21-2017, 07:32 AM

This is a game that always offers low stakes near me I'm not sure if its worth playing. Anyone have any idea?

The blackjack rules 6 deck, S17, RSA, DAS,SP 3 times, LS, Double any first 2 cards Pen is just less then 1 deck
Dealers 22 is a push
Blackjack pays 2:1
the side bet pays even money

You do not have to place a side bet first, if the player busts he can place a side bet equal to his/her original bet and take a card. The drawn card is subtracted from the bust hand. Example player busts with a 24 puts up his side bet and buys a card and gets a 5 now his total is 19

Is it worth playing or does the 22 push rule kill it?

**Three** · 03-21-2017, 09:33 AM

Originally Posted by Morphy

Is it worth playing or does the 22 push rule kill it?

I wouldn't play a game with push 22 rule!!

**Morphy** · 03-21-2017, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

I wouldn't play a game with push 22 rule!!

Thank you three

I felt the blackjack 2:1 payout was a trap to get one to sit down

**Freightman** · 03-21-2017, 10:02 AM

Originally Posted by Morphy

Thank you three

I felt the blackjack 2:1 payout was a trap to get one to sit down

The 22 push rule is a killer, however, before making a decision, these rules are so good, other than 22 push, I would sim it first. What might tilt it is if surrender is available.

**Morphy** · 03-21-2017, 10:20 AM

late surrender is available!

**Freightman** · 03-21-2017, 10:26 AM

Originally Posted by Morphy

late surrender is available!

I would definitely sim this game, with its rules and pen, before discarding it because of 22 push. Also, I make no comment about the side bet.

**bigedge** · 03-21-2017, 10:27 AM

Push 22 is a HUGE EV killer. The table below shows what you will lose in EV for your non-bust hands.

You do get back about 2.3% with the 2:1 BJ rule. If you end up busting 20% of the time, you will need to recoup about 3.5% in house edge with your non-bust hands.

The main playing strategy adjustments will be to avoid the splits/double downs which normally get you in the range of the lost equity, as those hands will become -EV.

The bust side bet is a loser. You will most likely get stiff hands if you play it, which is almost always -EV. You might be able to develop a side count for it, but I suspect it would almost never be a +EV play.

Without putting any analysis into it, a good counting system should overweight 2s, as its EOR goes way up due to the push 22 rule. Also, with the 2:1 BJ rule, aces and 10s become much more valuable.

The game may be beatable with the good penetration you noted, but only with a sizeable spread, which you apparently can't get with the low house max bet.

Code:

Dealer    Lost Equity 
Up Card  Non-bust Hands
-------  --------------
1             3.2%
2            14.9%
3             9.8%
4             9.5%
5             9.4%
6             8.7%
7             6.6%
8             6.0%
9             5.7%
10            5.2%

Weighted Avg: 7.3%

**Meistro123** · 03-21-2017, 10:30 AM

22 as a push is -7%. There is no combination of rules that can make up for that. This rule is not found in vanilla blackjack and much more common in freebet or blackjack switch. The rules as posted look horrendous.

**Freightman** · 03-21-2017, 10:33 AM

Originally Posted by Meistro123

22 as a push is -7%. There is no combination of rules that can make up for that. This rule is not found in vanilla blackjack and much more common in freebet or blackjack switch. The rules as posted look horrendous.

I didn't know the percentage, but if 7% is accurate, the deficit cannot be overcome.