Originally Posted by Cardguy
so you are changing the rules and pen....anyways...do you realize that at +1 on H17 games you are basically betting 2 units ($50, or $100) on a "coinflip" to which you are still (slightly) behind?
Good Luck
Interesting point of discussion. My usual plus 1 game has me so marginally close on the plus side, that it really is a coin toss even Steven. Stronger roll, go ahead and do it, weaker roll, don't need the variance then leave it. By doing it, all you're doing is trading variance with the house. The advantage I see are the easier jumps at plus 2 and 3, which look a lot more natural.
Maybe a spinoff, maybe not, are issues surrounding true 1.5. Interesting points to be made here as well.
Each TC has its own n0. n0 is proportional to VAR/(EV^2) for the TC. At near zero EV the n0 is a ridiculous number maybe in the millions of rounds. It may be so large that you will never reach it. That means you are gambling every time you make the bet because you will never make it enough times to reach any kind of certainty for overall results.
I really don't give a shit about n0 at plus 1. To make it easy TC 1.0 is breakeven. Choosing to raise or not is simply a matter of style and tolerance for variance. Raising to 2 units at plus 1 allows you to parlay at plus 2 where you have gained an infinite advantage over plus one, and allows you to parkay again at plus 3, where you have doubled your advantage over plus 2.
So tc0,1,2,3
Do you prefer
25,25,50,100
Or
25,50,100,200
A question of style and tolerance fir variance.
I do the same thing but my ramp is designed to jump any bin with a full parlay (except min bet to the second advantage bet). I just wanted people to understand what they are doing with an advantage bet at near zero EV. It really hurts all your stats because it is NOT the optimal bet. If you are going to hurt your stats you need a good reason. There is optimal sim play and there is getting away with the highest EV in the casino. Your actual play should be a combination of the 2 that allows you to get the highest EV and be welcomed back. My system allows for betting that is very different from what everyone else does. I don't talk about it because it benefits nobody.
That looks like a Hilo ramp. The trouble with Hilo is you can't fine tune your bets because the gain per TC is too large. It is a question of how things are compacted toward lower TC. You could take TC to an additional decimal and construct a ramp that allows you to jump a betting bin without more than doubling your bet. For my count system I might use:
50,100,150,200,300,400,600, and a supermax bet of 750.
(Note: Except for min bet to the second advantage bet I can jump a betting bin without doing anything more than a full parlay. That is why I increase my bet at a minimal advantage. I know the cost and have good reason to do so. My munchkin unit bet, bet at 0.5% advantage, is 150)
But I can set my betting bins to be very specific and would draw from linear TC bins on either side of the betting bin to bet very specifically to closely related situation rather than lumping a great deal of unrelated situations into the same betting bin.
my point is that in H17 games you are gambling at +1....so ask yourself.."do I feel lucky?....welll do you, punk"...LOL
"Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself. But being this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?
they NEVER get old...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xjr2hnOHiM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7Nci-GVuHE
In part 1, seeing as his pistol wasn't cocked all he had to do was look and see there was no projectile in the next cylinder to fire. But in part 2 he made sure to cock his .44 so the fact that he had a projectile in the cylinder was concealed since it was in line with the barrel of the pistol.
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