Counting Cards is hard!

**Cardguy** · 03-19-2017, 07:46 PM

With the games currently offered (H17, multideck, 75% pen), the need for some camo to maintain longevity, the crowded conditions, the challenges of counting accurately without being obvious, accurate deck estimation, RC to TC conversion, adequate bankroll, limited session length (again for longevity), and the enormous bankroll swings, Blackjack is frickin' hard! My hat's off to those of you who do this for a living.

I guess this is just my venting thread - we all need one once in a while don't we? Since taking up this game 18 months ago, I have played about 200 hours, I've spent $800 in tips, $1,800 in auto expenses, and I'm currently DOWN $880. I was up $5,900 just two weeks ago and was feeling OK. Since then I have lost 5 consecutive sessions totaling $6,700 and to say the least, I do not feel OK. I have a good day job and enough of a bankroll that this lost money doesn't hurt me in any real way but it still bugs the CRAP out of me! My records give my results a z-score of -0.65. The probability of this outcome or worse is 25% so I assume it is just variance. I enjoy counting as a hobby but only if I'm sure it's going to be profitable (for me that means making at least $50/hr after expenses). The challenge is part of the appeal though and I don't want to quit a loser. I told myself that once I made 10K I would reevaluate and decide if this is something I want to continue to do. I'm not a big casino fan but I do like exercising my mind and making a little extra cash.

In response, I'm trying to improve my game. I've been playing HiLo but I'm now in the process of learning Wong Halves. I feel pretty comfortable with it though I still make the occasional error during practice. I'm gonna keep practicing on CVBJ until it's automatic (probably another week or two) then dive back in. If anyone has advice, I'd love to hear it (or similar stories so I don't feel alone in my misfortune) but this is mostly just for me to vent. Thanks for listening.

RS · 03-19-2017, 11:02 PM

All the "extra" stuff is what makes it tough. Absolutely. If you're doing it right, absent negative variance, you'll end up a winner. And eventually that'll happen and you'll be well on your way.

Good luck.

**Bigdaddy** · 03-20-2017, 06:40 AM

200 hours (20,000 rounds) isn't enough to make a sound judgment. You haven't filled in enough of the curve.

I'm in a similar situation to you. I started playing seriously about 3 years ago and then just started keeping good records starting on 1/1/16. Since that time, I've played about 30,000 rounds and showing results at about 1/2 of EV (z-score -.6). We'd all like to be on the other side of that curve, but "c'est la vie". At least I'm up - nothing wrong with that. My take away is that as a lone-wolf player, you really need to adopt a long-term, multi-year horizon about your game. I expect that in the next 5 years or so (150,000 to 200,000 rounds), my cumulative results will be entirely satisfactory even if I happen to be a standard deviation or 2 below expectation.

**cc12b** · 03-20-2017, 07:15 AM

If it was easy the casinos will be full of players who is just need 5th grade math. lol. When I hear someone at the table say "easy money" after some winning hands I have chill in my backbone. I would respond "when I hear that (easy money) I thought the person saying that is either genius or a fool, one of the two".

**Sharky** · 03-20-2017, 12:07 PM

what are your stakes and ramp?

**Stealth** · 03-20-2017, 12:34 PM

Originally Posted by moses

At 10 hours a day on Verite you'd have the same knowledge in less than 3 weeks that took you 18 months.

I would modify this to say that he has the same "technical" knowledge in less than 3 weeks. Experience in the casino with pit, heat, surveillance and the other issues are not available any where else but the casino. Both are valuable and necessary.

I do suggest that doing Verite first, then the casino is a preferable approach.

**cc12b** · 03-20-2017, 01:42 PM

Originally Posted by moses

The most important factor in the game is me. How I adapt. Do I have the guts to put out a max bet after losing 4 mid range in a row? It's the difference between competing with confidence and playing with fear.

Thou shalt not be chicken

**Cardguy** · 03-20-2017, 02:55 PM

Thanks for the replies. I'll try to answer all the questions posed. I've actually only played about 15,000 rounds so I realize I'm still far from the "long-term". I didn't mention the fact that I practice on Verite A LOT. Probably 10 hours per week or so - I spend much more time playing BJ on my computer than I do at the casino. Unfortunately, in my neck of the woods (east coast), there are no DD games around - it's all shoes. I play either $25 or $50 min tables with a 1:12 ramp. When possible I play two hands on the $25 tables (but never on the $50). All the $50 games are NMSE. 50% of the time I play 6D H17 DAS LS usually with 75-80% pen. 25% is 8D S17 DAS LS with 80% pen and 25% is 6D S17 DAS LS with 75-80% pen (I play this whenever it's available; it's always $50). I'm disciplined and always put out the correct bet. I start with the shuffle and Wong out at -2.
The c-SCORE for the games I play most commonly is in the high 30's on CVCX. However, when you factor in that I never jump my bets, I never split 10's, I occasionally don't leave at -2 (i.e. end of shoe) and I probably make an occasional error, I suspect that my c-SCORE is closer to 30. This means to make any money I've got to tolerate HUGE bankroll swings.
I was a Math major in college and I definitely understand the probabilities involved.
To try to improve things I'm switching to Halves and I'm trying to play heads up as much as possible (usually only possible on the $50 NMSE table). I'm also trying to play 2 hands on the $25 tables whenever possible (hard to do because they're crowded).

**Sharky** · 03-20-2017, 09:06 PM

Originally Posted by Cardguy

.. I play either $25 or $50 min tables with a 1:12 ramp....

1-12 is your "spread"....ramp is what you bet by count

fyi, dont think you are making $50/hr after those expenses with that spread on 8D H17

**gm7lp** · 03-21-2017, 12:07 AM

Originally Posted by Cardguy

Thanks for the replies. I'll try to answer all the questions posed. I've actually only played about 15,000 rounds so I realize I'm still far from the "long-term". I didn't mention the fact that I practice on Verite A LOT. Probably 10 hours per week or so - I spend much more time playing BJ on my computer than I do at the casino. Unfortunately, in my neck of the woods (east coast), there are no DD games around - it's all shoes. I play either $25 or $50 min tables with a 1:12 ramp. When possible I play two hands on the $25 tables (but never on the $50). All the $50 games are NMSE. 50% of the time I play 6D H17 DAS LS usually with 75-80% pen. 25% is 8D S17 DAS LS with 80% pen and 25% is 6D S17 DAS LS with 75-80% pen (I play this whenever it's available; it's always $50). I'm disciplined and always put out the correct bet. I start with the shuffle and Wong out at -2.
The c-SCORE for the games I play most commonly is in the high 30's on CVCX. However, when you factor in that I never jump my bets, I never split 10's, I occasionally don't leave at -2 (i.e. end of shoe) and I probably make an occasional error, I suspect that my c-SCORE is closer to 30. This means to make any money I've got to tolerate HUGE bankroll swings.
I was a Math major in college and I definitely understand the probabilities involved.
To try to improve things I'm switching to Halves and I'm trying to play heads up as much as possible (usually only possible on the $50 NMSE table). I'm also trying to play 2 hands on the $25 tables whenever possible (hard to do because they're crowded).

Your doing great^^ wong out at -1 though. And camo camo camo!!! Reverse wonging is underrated

As for BR i dont have CV but i hear anything from 80 to 100 max bets is appropriate for 1% ror. Know it depends on the game. Anyone know for 8D S17 DAS RSA LAS?

Sent from my SM-G935S using Tapatalk

**kerstintimonen** · 03-21-2017, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by rollingstoned

all the "extra" stuff is what makes it tough. Absolutely. If you're doing it right, absent negative variance, you'll end up a winner. And eventually that'll happen and you'll be well on your way.

Good luck.

agreed.

**stopgambling** · 03-21-2017, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by Stealth

Experience in the casino with pit, heat, surveillance and the other issues are not available any where else but the casino. Both are valuable and necessary.

I do suggest that doing Verite first, then the casino is a preferable approach.

this shows you know something.possible a pro with many hours played.

**Cardguy** · 03-22-2017, 04:45 AM

Originally Posted by Sharky

1-12 is your "spread"....ramp is what you bet by count

fyi, dont think you are making $50/hr after those expenses with that spread on 8D H17

My ramp in units is usually 1,2,4,8,10,12 at TC=0,1,2,3,4,5. The only 8D I play is S17 and it usually has at least 6.5 deck pen. I find it hard to Wong out at -1 because my #1 store has very few tables. I think I'm doing everything right, just have to keep grinding. Losing more than 2K in back to back sessions and almost 7K in 5 sessions was tough to stomach.