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Thread: DD card cutting technique..

  1. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    A person could drive themselves nuts with the stupid little nuances. Just count the damn cards and make money. Focus on the 98% and stop fretting over the 2%. People start thinking the 2% is 98% of the battle. This is why handicappers go broke. I dunno, maybe every one is rich in Pa. But here, today will be like any other day of the song "Another One Bites the Dust."
    The little things add up to like an additional 15 to 20%. Think of how many things you write off because they aren't worth much. I only need these few indices because it captures 80% of all indices. I want the other 20%. I don't want to leave that money with the casino. I don't want to know how to play a player option to its best EV because that rarely happens. There goes another 1%. I don't want to know what to with information about a card whether it be the next card, the hole card or a card that will come out a predetermined time. There goes a few more percent. I could go on but you get the idea. As you start to add them up it becomes significant.

    It is like coaching a basketball team and thinking the game is mostly about shooting, rebounding and dribbling so you never teach your players anything else. How does that affect your chances to win against a team that worked on all that but also defense, clock management, ball handling, inbounding, etc? Have you ever watched how hard a team is to beat when they are doing everything they should? Many teams look like turkeys for most of the game and then they play 5 minutes the way they should play the entire game and they look unbeatable. Why? Because they are worrying about all the little things they didn't for the rest of the game. They would have won overwhelmingly if they had played the entire game like all the little things mattered (the way they played that 5 minutes).

    The thinking that lots of things aren't worth much so you shouldn't worry about them costs you a lot especially when you consider improvements compound on each other so an extra percentage here and there add up to more than the sum of the gains. You will lower n0, increase EV and SCORE, decrease SD and win sessions you would have lost. Play BJ like the basketball team played that 5 minutes where they looked unbeatable. Don't play like the same team that lost the game.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Thinking you can cut into six decks and steer the card to yourself with a table full of ploppies.
    What AP is going to be playing with a full table of ploppies? That is a recipe for disaster. Come on man. You are talking like Zee now. But there are teams that do that by taking up most of the spots. You really need to think a lot more before you post. Think I have this info how can I use it to increase EV. You think I have this info but I have no idea how I can make the most of it. Skills learned to make a tiny bit extra EV on this situation often can be used in other situations where they are worth a lot more. Sometimes a lot more than the counting game itself is worth. Being able to know when a particular card or slug will hit the table is an extremely valuable skill. Being able to cut an exact number of cards makes that skill even more valuable. Learn some more and you may be trading your 1% to 2% card counting advantage into a 10% advantage. That makes learning the skill necessary to get that little bit for this play look like it will be well worth it for the end game maximizing the advantage that your skill set can allow. The way you gather info and the way you use the info gathered can make all the difference in the world.

  2. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    What has really been accomplished?
    He learns he should have worn his cup.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Point is, you've got to draw the line somewhere and just play the friggin game.
    You draw the line when you leave no EV on the table. You have forever to prepare for the small number of hours you actually play. Be prepared to make the most of each session and each opportunity that presents itself.

  3. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Maybe you need all that crap to win at 6 decks. But it's not necessary in single or double deck straight up. For one thing, there is a cap because your opponent can forfeit at anytime.
    If you want to win more you need to know how to take every advantage that presents itself. If you want to leave a lot on the table then you can be lazy about preparation and not take advantage of the opportunities that arise beyond what is found in simulation. I have had sessions that barely won where I took advantage of opportunities that added to thousands in extra money. I would have lost thousands. Being prepared allow me to turn quite a few sessions into much higher winners. At the end of the year I figure it adds up to an extra 5 figure amount. I would win either way but an extra $10K to $20K is a nice payback for the preparation. I's only an additional 10% to 20%. Lazy players write that off as not worth it all the time. I think getting a new car for free every couple years is worth the effort but to each his own. I guess you are satisfied with only the normal 6 figure win per year in single deck land. I want the extra $10K to $20K for being prepared to make the most of every opportunity. Rarely does an opportunity present itself that I don't know how to maximize it. Next time I am prepared. My gut is usually pretty spot on but not always. Often skills learned to get a pittance are used later for some other play to make a huge increase in EV.

  4. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    If APs are playing straight up, then why all the talk and your first hand advice given regarding ploppies?
    They join the table mid-shoe and 1 fast ploppy is not a issue. Playing at a table full of ploppies is another story. You take a huge hit on rounds per hour, which defines hourly, and certainty goes out the window as the certainty you will get the good cards when the round of good cards makes the count tanks is gone. Also the number of rounds per opportunity is cut down to 40% of good playing conditions. In my opinion I am better off not playing at all. You can and should leave a bad count but you don't want others eating rounds and good cards in a good count. The notion that card eating evens out because others at the table eat bad cards for you assumes that you will play through shit counts by overexposing your min bet. There are so many reasons why you should not be doing this. I can't find good conditions while I am losing money playing shit. You go ahead and play at a full table. I will play fewer hours and get in 3 times as many rounds to a higher EV and a more certain outcome.

  5. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    The penalty is just too high not to employ basic strategy at that point.
    That is when knowing the bizarre plays and exotic bet changes benefit you the most. You can make plus EV or barely minus EV moves that make him think you are an idiot to not worry about. The biggest advantage of gathering more info and using it differently is not increased EV. It is the ability to play without the pit worrying that they will get in trouble if they don't back you off. You can play to the same EV but be tolerated until the amount money the idiot won forces the action. If you get a dealer that exposes the bottom card you will see it every time until the dealer is fixed.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    You end up with Zee worrying about the cut and walking away from a tc5 +. GEESH.
    All your paranoid talk about not making the right play because your act is too weak to pull of a deviation in front of the Floor is what hurts Zee. Now he won't take insurance or make the appropriate bets or doubles and splits because you have him worried he will get barred but the truth is every casino will welcome him with open arms because he gives up his entire advantage by being intimidated. The edge on the crowded shit games he is playing with his count and indices is maybe 0.5%. Leave any of that on the table and your edge is gone. he needs to find ways to get it all and then some.

  6. #45
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    Refs that enforce the rules conditionally should be fired.

  7. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Okay. So a bizarre play for me might be hitting a 16vs2 in a positive count. Wow. I just felt Don S roll his eyes. I figure a pit boss is standing at my table for a reason. So I hit to "fool" him and lose so he thinks I'm an idiot?
    Yeah, he is rolling his eyes at this statement. You could stand and the Floor would think, "Of course he stood. Who wouldn't stand?" Now, if you know the shoe has a huge 5 surplus you might consider hitting for +EV or just CHEAP cover. The point of choosing your cover play or cover bet is to do things that look stupid that aren't as stupid as they look. You do this by using more information than the Floor has or would know what to do with.

    Any place you are a regular you can figure they know what you are up to. The key is to play in a way that makes them comfortable looking the other way. There are 2 ways to do this. You can give up a lot of EV by making truly idiotic plays and bet moves. Or you can use more information differently so you can know when something looks stupid that is actually smart or something that looks costly but costs you almost nothing. The suits really don't care if you make money. It is a casino, some people will make money. They won't get in trouble if someone makes money. If your play means they will get in trouble if they don't act they will act every time. If your play is something they won't get in trouble for not acting they won't act most of the time. Understand what your session play looks like for any given session and govern session length accordingly.

  8. #47
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    The suits love a happy loser.

  9. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    The suits love a happy loser.
    Now there is an act that is always useful. I don't remember that enough. Finish off with straight BS play drinking a couple beers and try and get a bunch of laughs out of a bad situation. Certainly cements their idea that you are stupid.

  10. #49
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    I have pit crews that just like to watch a true artist at work. They know they don't have to act and they appreciate I don't threaten their jobs when I show up. They watch periodically all the time regardless. The only time you really want to bug out is if the suits in the pit are not watching at all. That means most likely the EITS is watching you. No way to gauge that and if it is so you are close to having action taken against you. It is normal for the pit to watch you if you are betting more than most. Acting goofy about it just raises their suspicions. You would be backed off in no time in shoe country. Everything you say is 100% backwards from what is the best course of action. I am sure I would have troubles where you play if I wanted to take a huge pay cut and play single deck in your neck of the woods. Moses, if you would learn to play your count to maximum efficiency you would crush the shoes and have little to no heat. The way you talk the game would crush you and you would quickly be backed off. Most of the time a suit watching or countermeasures being implemented is a test to see how you react. If you flinch or leave immediately you just confirmed their suspicions and either will get the voluntary run off every time you show up or a back off the next time you show up. There is a subtle middle ground you walk that says I get the message without running scared or tipping your hand. Most likely they have pretty much made up their mind and want to see if you give yourself away or will cooperate with a nudge to leave once they feel you have overstayed your welcome. You don't want to get up right away and you don't want to stay too long either.

  11. #50


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    I have pit crews that just like to watch a true artist at work. They know they don't have to act and they appreciate I don't threaten their jobs when I show up. They watch periodically all the time regardless. The only time you really want to bug out is if the suits in the pit are not watching at all. That means most likely the EITS is watching you. No way to gauge that and if it is so you are close to having action taken against you. It is normal for the pit to watch you if you are betting more than most. Acting goofy about it just raises their suspicions. You would be backed off in no time in shoe country. Everything you say is 100% backwards from what is the best course of action. I am sure I would have troubles where you play if I wanted to take a huge pay cut and play single deck in your neck of the woods. Moses, if you would learn to play your count to maximum efficiency you would crush the shoes and have little to no heat. The way you talk the game would crush you and you would quickly be backed off. Most of the time a suit watching or countermeasures being implemented is a test to see how you react. If you flinch or leave immediately you just confirmed their suspicions and either will get the voluntary run off every time you show up or a back off the next time you show up. There is a subtle middle ground you walk that says I get the message without running scared or tipping your hand. Most likely they have pretty much made up their mind and want to see if you give yourself away or will cooperate with a nudge to leave once they feel you have overstayed your welcome. You don't want to get up right away and you don't want to stay too long either.
    I think you have a good outlook on how the regular can avoid getting the boot at his/her local store. I think it boils down to play nice and don't be greedy. I use a 1-4 spread at my local store (DD game) and roll with the punches. It's better than having no game at all. I just avoid the deep negative counts and the dealers that don't give good pen.

  12. #51


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Question. When you say 1-4 in DD. Does that mean you are playing 1 hand at say $25 to $100? Or 2 at $50? For instance, I play 1 hand at $25 and 2 at $75. I consider that to be 1 to 6 because it's how many chips get on the table. The only reason is because it's what a pit boss once said right before he said No Mas.
    I'm currently playing one hand $50 - $200 at this game. ($300 in super high count, when nobody's looking - I can't resist )

  13. #52


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Question. When you say 1-4 in DD. Does that mean you are playing 1 hand at say $25 to $100? Or 2 at $50? For instance, I play 1 hand at $25 and 2 at $75. I consider that to be 1 to 6 because it's how many chips get on the table. The only reason is because it's what a pit boss once said right before he said No Mas.
    You need to take card eating into account. In other words, going to 2 hands in a positive count will reduce the number of rounds to the shuffle. Depending on where you are in the deck, it will likely be closer to 1-4.

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