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Thread: Am I playing a winning game?

  1. #1


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    Am I playing a winning game?

    My concern is that my cover is too costly. Here's the game: 6D H17 DAS LS 4.5/6 pen, spread 1:10 NMSE Wongout at -2 80 rounds/hr. I play HiLo with about 50 indices but I play with the following resrictions: 1) Don't split 10's, 2) Never raise bet after loss, 3) Never lower bet after win, 4) Never more than double my previous bet, 5) Never lower bet by more than 1/2, 6) Don't jump from 1 to 2 hands mid-shoe. These are basically Don's "Total camouflage" from BJA 103-109 although I'm unsure if his numbers include not splitting 10's

    I know I'm giving up a lot but this is my local store and longevity is very important to me. I have simmed this to the best of my ability but I don't think there is a way to enter restrictions 2 through 5 into the sim. This is a $50 table where I feel heat if I bet over $500 which is why I don't spread more aggressively. My sims give an hourly win rate of $59 with a SCORE of 28 and hourly SD $1,250. According to the tables in BJA3 p. 109, total camouflage costs about 48% in the 6D play-all game and about 22% in the backcounting game. If I assume I'm half way between these, my hourly win rate should be about 35% less or $38. $38/hr is probably not worth it to me in the long run when I count in my time, car costs, tips, etc.

    I think I have to lessen my restrictions a bit and will probably follow Don's advice (p. 106) by decreasing after a win and decreasing by more than half after a loss. Maybe occasionally raising after a loss but still never jumping bets. Any other suggestions would be welcome. This game is simple but it sure ain't easy!

  2. #2


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    Your approach seems reasonable, but I would recommend splitting tens above the index (split TT v 5 and TT v 6 at +8 or higher) and change 'never' to 'rarely' in your betting cover. Also try to get some high speed heads up play. But you are really not giving up that much with your betting cover.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Your approach seems reasonable, but I would recommend splitting tens above the index (split TT v 5 and TT v 6 at +8 or higher) and change 'never' to 'rarely' in your betting cover. Also try to get some high speed heads up play. But you are really not giving up that much with your betting cover.
    I think you missed something, and accordingly, I disagree. His SCORE is not based on DOns benchmark 10kbankroll, but based on his min $50 game. I have not dimmed, but $59 stinks on that basis. He needs to manipulate his personal rule set. He can bring it up to 74 by raising Hph to 100, which is slow in any event fir heads up. His SCORE is heavily affected by his cover of win loss protocols.

    This style of play actually, but not totally, resembles Don's old scenario of staying welcome long term, the difference being On maxed at 5 units, before going 5to 2x6 units st I think plus 5 true. That scenario generated I think Qp1-1.5 units per hour, which for hi stakes play is okay.

    When I'm not hindered by such mundane restrictions, I tend to use 2 betting schemes and ramps, mixing it up, so to speak. House catches on eventually, but the thing is that it makes you look a ploppy raising and lowering your bets with wins or losses regardless of the count - but......which ramp am I actually in. The lower ramp us still suitable for the game that I am playing

  4. #4


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    Thanks for the replies. Yes, I think the most useful thing I can do is to try to play more hands per hour. Heads up play when possible and playing two hands when it's not. I'll also be a little more lenient on lowering my bets when the count calls for it.

  5. #5


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    Usually off peak times are the best opportunity to get a nice heads up match but sometimes right before peak times they open up a bunch of tables and that is a good opportunity, when they have all the dealers but before the player rush comes.

  6. #6
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    Are you a subscriber? I could PM if so. You are using a very old template that makes you look like a counter. They let it go because using this template gives up so much. I would use a higher spread and get rid of any "always" rules. You can play a spread that looks smaller than 1-10 while actually playing a 1-16 spread. What you want from your cover is to have them be able to think you aren't moving your bet with the count and allow them to find a few other things that appear to be why you are moving your bet without much long run cost. You should be making at least around 1 munchkin unit (the bet you make with a 0.5% advantage) and hour with betting cover that costs very little.

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