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Thread: Super High Count

  1. #1


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    Super High Count

    I just got a running count of 36 in multi-deck. That's the highest I've ever seen. I've had it hit upper 20s before but mid-30s? Jesus.

    A few shoes before that, it was in the mid-20s and I got brutalized. I went to another table because a new shoe on there dropped way low and I could blame it on a bad table. So I'm playing at about +2 and in comes a massively retarded ploppy. She screws my double down by not hitting her 16 and because the count dipped below 1, I pulled a Morgenstein and wonged out. She gets a blackjack on the next hand, rubbing it my face that my crybaby antics worked out for her. That didn't last long. The count continued to sink, and she was a horrible player, and she easily blew $500 before leaving. Then I asked for a shuffle. So then the shoe came with that 36 running count, which translated to about a +8-12 true count throughout half the playable shoe. I'm beyond max bet and it was rough going. At the low point, when things were bleakest, here comes the same idiot ploppy with fresh bills from the ATM in a +10 true count. "Jesus fucking Christ get the fuck out of here!" Another Morgenstein and it worked she bolted. Last hand of the shoe was junk and a soft 19 against a 6. Won the double and the junk hand. Ended up getting the money back I lost at the other table at least.

    But dang, 36 running count? You guys seen that before?
    Last edited by Allbizness; 02-01-2017 at 04:04 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Allbizness View Post
    [Redacted]
    Honestly. If you are going to be that way. Why start a thread at all?

    High low, I've seen low 30s once or twice.

    I don't want to start a spat with you or anything. But you could have made the same post without pre-emptively antagonizing everyone on the forum. Those two rub a lot of people the wrong way (not defending or siding with anyone here, that's just how things are). At the end of the day, you can post how you want but imo you and everyone else will get more out of this site if you don't assume that someone is always going to come at you.

    If this post bugs you as well, just forget I said anything. I'm not going to fuss about it.
    Last edited by NotEnoughHeat; 02-01-2017 at 04:40 AM.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    Honestly. If you are going to be that way. Why start a thread at all?

    High low, I've seen low 30s once or twice.

    I don't want to start a spat with you or anything. But you could have made the same post without pre-emptively antagonizing everyone on the forum. Those two rub a lot of people the wrong way (not defending or siding with anyone here, that's just how things are). At the end of the day, you can post how you want but imo you and everyone else will get more out of this site if you don't assume that someone is always going to come at you.

    If this post bugs you as well, just forget I said anything. I'm not going to fuss about it.
    Sorry dude I deleted it. Just don't want him antagonizing this thread or comin in with some nonsense technical hoopla about level 8 counts and the way things are counted didn't realize I may be the one who'd be startin it or causin it to happen your point is well taken. Anyways go ahead if you got anything more about this insanely high count.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Allbizness View Post
    Sorry dude I deleted it. Just don't want him antagonizing this thread or comin in with some nonsense technical hoopla about level 8 counts and the way things are counted didn't realize I may be the one who'd be startin it or causin it to happen your point is well taken. Anyways go ahead if you got anything more about this insanely high count.
    No worries. It's good that you're self-aware. There's enough people who aren't. This is one of the better AP forums, I'd just hate to see it completely degenerate such that it feels like the rest of the internet.


    It's not like I mark it down or anything, but I think I've ran into counts in the 20s quite a few times too. It actually gets me quite nervous sometimes just because you wonder whether you just completely botched the count and I don't feel much at all when I have a bad bet on a max bet. I have seen a TC of about +18 before. However, this was an extremely deeply dealt shoe. Maybe 30 cards cut off or so. Round to half deck divisor. +9 running. It's kind of funny that the highest RCs I've seen probably only hold one place in my top three TCs and two or three places in my top fifteen.

    I've also seen completely terrible counts but those aren't anything too interesting since I'm out way before then. I tombstone at my local shop so sometimes I just watch it all go down.

  5. #5


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    In 6 deck games, I seem to lose too much in super high counts lately. I started playing almost exclusively DD games after a show where the count was easily TC4 or higher and I lost 5 straight hands with the dealer getting 2 BJ's and mostly 20's. After 4 straight hands of $250 lost, steaming, I played two hands on the lastand lost both as well. $1400 in less than 10 minutes playing heads up .

    I now avoid the $25 6 deck games, playing mostly DD. Mentally, I am not there yet.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    I can't top your +36 RC. I've seen high 40's in HiOpt2, but at most they equated to high 20's in hi-lo.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    In 6 deck games, I seem to lose too much in super high counts lately. I started playing almost exclusively DD games after a show where the count was easily TC4 or higher and I lost 5 straight hands with the dealer getting 2 BJ's and mostly 20's. After 4 straight hands of $250 lost, steaming, I played two hands on the lastand lost both as well. $1400 in less than 10 minutes playing heads up .
    So, whats your point? Never seen variance before? Do you think we have never lost 5 straight hands?

    I lost an entire heads up shoe of DD with no ties or wins before, so mine is bigger than yours. Get over it.

    What the hell is mentally not there yet? Do you need to see a therapist? Was your loss outside of normal standard deviation? Did you not know about standard deviation?

    I am sorry, but I continue to be amazed at post like this by experienced people playing this game and being told over and over that their results are normal.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    It is hard to take you seriously when you make ploppy comments like that. I hope that was an act and you don't actually think others disrupt the flow of the cards or cause you to lose more often by the way they play. I can see being upset that she is there to begin with but to think a play she made somehow screwed you shows you don't understand that the game is about the long run and not the next round. And also that the way someone plays will help you as often as it hurts you. In the long run it makes no difference. Let me ask you this. If you could decide which of the next two cards the dealer got would you be upset if you chose a card that made you lose? If you know one makes you win and the other makes you lose but know no info on either card other than that what difference does it make which card you get. Half the time you win, the other half you lose. In the long run it just doesn't matter which one you choose. That is the basic math of the game.

    I use a level 2 count and I imagine you are using a level 1 count by your amazement at a +36 RC. I see +36 very often. I see in the 40's regularly enough. The fifties are not as common. An RC in the 60's happens from time to time but not much. I have cracked a RC of 70 at least once which is probably about equivalent to your +36 RC (actually probably more like in the 60's somewhere for an equivalent count). It didn't stay there long every time it happened which is good because it means the cards you want to see come out when you bet big started coming out.
    I feel the same way but after the shoe plays out evidence is I made no mistake.
    This is all part of the math of the game. The dealer is as likely as you to get good cards in a good count. It all works out if you play enough rounds to expect results to approach expectation. Trust the math when that happens and be happy you logged plus EV rounds. Getting to the long run you will win a lot of hands and lose a lot of hands. Sometimes the wins or losses clump but after enough rounds you will make the EV per round for that high TC times the number of rounds played. You added 5 rounds toward making the long run. The EV will average out so the team effort of all bets made in that betting bin approaches expectation after enough rounds are played. Again the math of the game. Trust the math.
    See what I mean Notenough? I specifically didn't want jesus3 to post because he brings nothing to the table besides a superiority complex and horrible advice. But he can't help himself and makes useless posts anyway. Yawn.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Allbizness View Post
    See what I mean Notenough? I specifically didn't want jesus3 to post because he brings nothing to the table besides a superiority complex and horrible advice. But he can't help himself and makes useless posts anyway. Yawn.
    What superiority complex. Any seasoned BJ player felt the same way about the comment that someone taking a card caused you to lose your bet. I hope you understood what I said about it. I even gave you the out to come back with it was just cover comment. You didn't use the out I gave you. I then related how my count relates to yours in terms of equivalent RC's based on the obvious assumption from your amazement that you use a level 1 count and gave my experiences. Now I play a lot more than most so if you don't play much you shouldn't expect your sampling of counts should range as far as I have experienced in terms of equivalent count. That said the RC +36 is a big outlier as I pointed out. You can hit that outlier on the first shoe you play or after years of play. Of course the more you play the more likely you are to hit an outlier. That is the nature of outliers.

    If you are just telling stories to tell stories then maybe I piss you off when I try to help you learn. If you come hear to learn you should drop the chip on your shoulder and start learning. So far it looks like you came here to tell stories and trash talk. They call that trolling on the internet.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    So, whats your point? Never seen variance before? Do you think we have never lost 5 straight hands?

    I lost an entire heads up shoe of DD with no ties or wins before, so mine is bigger than yours. Get over it.

    What the hell is mentally not there yet? Do you need to see a therapist? Was your loss outside of normal standard deviation? Did you not know about standard deviation?

    I am sorry, but I continue to be amazed at post like this by experienced people playing this game and being told over and over that their results are normal.
    Dude I lost 13 hands in a row, then pushed, then lost the next 3, then pushed again. Then I won on the 19th hand. That's my record. I tried to figure out how unlikely it was to lose 13 straight hands without a push, and it appears to happen once every 30,000 times or so. 18 hands without a win but with pushes is about twice as unlikely as 13 straight losses.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    What superiority complex.
    I don't even read your crazy posts. Go away. Yawn.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allbizness View Post
    Dude I lost 13 hands in a row, then pushed, then lost the next 3, then pushed again. Then I won on the 19th hand. That's my record. I tried to figure out how unlikely it was to lose 13 straight hands without a push, and it appears to happen once every 30,000 times or so. 18 hands without a win but with pushes is about twice as unlikely as 13 straight losses.
    Despite doing everything I can to avoid bad runs I am sure my longest losing streak is in the 20's but I don't count pushes and play 2 hands so a push for the round happens more often but so does a loss for the round. I played an 8 deck shoe heads-up with deep pen and lost every round or almost every round. Like I say I don't track these things. I know my longest winning run was 23 rounds. I assume my longest losing run is at least as big for obvious mathematical reasons. I have been playing BJ for decades so I have a lot more rounds in than most to get outlier streaks.

  13. #13


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    Yes. If you play long enough, you will see counts like this.

    Back in the day when I used to use Hi-Lo, I got up to a + 30 RC. I was at the table alone. There were two things that I found incredible about this (and by incredible, I don't mean "unbelievable." I mean more like "improbable").

    1. It happened early in the shoe. I remember thinking "man, I'm probably going to have my max bet out for the whole shoe." And I did! It was the very first shoe that I played that night. I imagine that the pit was thinking that I just felt like being aggressive that night right from the start. It's moments like this that you better have enough max bets. I was max betting all the way though the shoe. The TC never got below +5 if I remember correctly. Oh boy, it was on. I quickly knew that that was probably the only shoe that I was going to be playing that night.
    2. The hands I got were not what I thought I was going to get. There were not many 20s and only a few blackjacks. Mostly, I ended up with 14s, 15s, and 16s! The dealer was usually showing a face. Since the count was so high, index plays required that I stand. I expected to lose, but the dealer miraculously (improbably) would turn over a bust card. I also remember the dealer having lots of 7s, 8s, and 9s, that she busted on. This makes perfect sense, since Hi-Lo doesn't count these ranks. You would have thought however that the dealer would have had more 10s in the hole and therefore turn over more 17s, 18s, and 19s to beat my 14s, 15s, and 16s, but no. She mostly would turn over a 16 composed of 7/9 and 8/8 or a 15 composed of 7/8. She then proceeded to bust and I won the majority of my crap hands. With a count this high, I didn't expect so many crap hands. The amount of 20s and blackjacks between me and the dealer just weren't plentiful.

    It was definitely a memorable night.

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