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Thread: Card Counter vs AP

  1. #1
    Senior Member BetWise21's Avatar
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    Card Counter vs AP

    I have occasionally read that a lot of new card counters will fail and will not become real AP’s. I am interested if some of you believe this and why? If a person;

    1. Knows basic strategy till its automatic.
    2. Knows his preferred counting system
    3. Knows how to convert running count to true count if applicable
    4. Know his basic strategy deviations ( at least i18 and fab 4 and some more)
    5. Understands and plans his bet spread per truecount
    6. Understands bankroll requirements
    7. Understands game selection; number of decks,rules and penetration
    8. Understands Risk of Ruin
    9. Understands variation and standard deviation of the game.
    10. Understands that mostly it’s a marathon not a sprint.
    11. Understands wonging in and out
    12. Understands heat and longevity.

    What could be the source of his failure, what more should he understand to be successful?
    Last edited by BetWise21; 01-09-2017 at 10:51 AM.

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    Because most new counters lack discipline and don't stick to the plan.

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    I knew a guy who understood all of those things, knew several count systems in and out. He couldnt execute a plan to escape a paper bag. At heart, he was a degenerate gambler (and a nice guy).

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    Desire and passion for the game have a lot to do with it...

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    Tracking his results in an adequate manner to get and benefit from feedback on his abilities and progress and, IMHO, selecting casinos and games and detailed planning on how to attack them and the discipline to perform without fail, is the main difference in a counter and an AP.

    It is not just technical skills, it is "street smarts".
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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    It occurs to me that the basic premise of the OP is incorrect. There are probably very few new counters who know/understand all of the things that were listed. The ones that do are probably not the ones who are failing.

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    New counters who fail do so because
    1. They are not as good as they think they are
    2. They are good, but are not properly capitalized.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    New counters who fail do so because
    1. They are not as good as they think they are
    2. They are good, but are not properly capitalized.
    I initially failed because of reason #1. I then failed again because of reason #2. Now I know I play a winning game and have a proper bankroll for ammunition. I'm probably a rare case of someone that started rough but stuck with it and prevailed.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    1.) CV Data
    2.) SCORE
    3.) Uston SS switch values of the 7 and 2.
    4.) Casino tolerance for bet spread. How much. How often.
    5.) Your tolerance for bet spread. How much. How often.
    6.) Sweet 16/Fab 4. Add 13vs4, 14vs2,3.
    7.) Start playing. Stop worrying.
    8.) No matter what is going on around you. The count, your bet, and your next move is all that's in your mind.
    9.) How bad do you want to be Good? You've got to want to be really good really bad. Thus the difference between AP vs count counter. Success vs failure.

    If 5 is less than 4 spends some more time on Casino Verite. You are not ready to compete.
    Once all the OP's list is met, the Casino Effect still has to be dealt with. Your brain will want to gamble. Have to learn to control that.

  10. #10
    Senior Member BetWise21's Avatar
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    Awesome advice, I have learned more from this thread than many others ( considering my personal level of skill ) I really thank you all .... Keep it coming.

  11. #11


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by 21MGR View Post
    I have occasionally read that a lot of new card counters will fail and will not become real AP’s. I am interested if some of you believe this and why? If a person;

    1. Knows basic strategy till its automatic.
    2. Knows his preferred counting system
    3. Knows how to convert running count to true count if applicable
    4. Know his basic strategy deviations ( at least i18 and fab 4 and some more)
    5. Understands and plans his bet spread per truecount
    6. Understands bankroll requirements
    7. Understands game selection; number of decks,rules and penetration
    8. Understands Risk of Ruin
    9. Understands variation and standard deviation of the game.
    10. Understands that mostly it’s a marathon not a sprint.
    11. Understands wonging in and out
    12. Understands heat and longevity.

    What could be the source of his failure, what more should he understand to be successful?
    Knowing how to count successfully and understanding how it all works, doesn't make for a good counter, or even a good AP.

    What you listed were training-wheels type stuff. You didn't mention anything about mastering your emotions, impulses, and awareness. All three of which I'd put over the 12 you mentioned, and that's still "Training" in my book with the APs I recruit.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Tracking his results in an adequate manner to get and benefit from feedback on his abilities and progress and, IMHO, selecting casinos and games and detailed planning on how to attack them and the discipline to perform without fail, is the main difference in a counter and an AP.

    It is not just technical skills, it is "street smarts".

    So much this. Street Smarts, AKA common sense.

    I didn't see a lick of "Scouting" in this breakdown of "things" suggested, and Scouting comes #1 above all else.

  13. #13
    Senior Member BetWise21's Avatar
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    7. Understands game selection; number of decks,rules and penetration - which would include scouting - my last trip to Las Vegas - I scouted more than played - I more than doubled the money I put in play from my BR, 30 units became 84 units.
    Last edited by BetWise21; 01-09-2017 at 01:28 PM.

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