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Thread: More Voodoo theory

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    More Voodoo theory

    Progression methods in the long run always end up sinking you as we all know, but I do like to play with them and add theories to see how well they hold up until you finally do sink.

    Got bored with the Paroli and D' alembert progressions pretty quick, and trying to change them to see different outcomes.
    I have to say when I first came across the martingale I was pretty impressed. Though it had its major flaws. Long bad sessions eventually emptied you out and table limits would stop you in your tracks if you did have enough money to run with it.

    After doing many games of using it and reading theories and statistics I thought of something that might let you win a little longer. Obviously always having the risk of losing a lot of money quickly.

    From what I read (on the internet, so who knows how accurate) its about 1 in 250 hands that you will hit a losing streak that will last 8 hands or more. Seemed to be pretty close after playing a couple thousand hands using the martingale. Using table limits of $5 and $500, I would eventually hit the limit and would lose all the money.

    So i thought for a second. What if you had someone sitting at a table playing a min bets or whatever. When the table goes through a long losing session and finally comes out, you sit down and start playing martingale. Play around 100 hands and get up. Wait for the table to go through another long losing session and come out and then sit down again.
    It's obviously still going to happen. You will still get caught in a losing streak eventually, but Im curious to know how well it would work or how long you could go doing this. I know if you flip a coin, and it comes up tails, it has no impact on what it will come up the next time you flip it.. but the chances of going through a couple bad sessions in 250 hands should be cut somewhat no?
    You can go through multiple bad sessions in 250 hands but slim chances.

    Just something I thought about and think would be fun if you went with some friends to have fun and intended on losing the money anyways.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ikerus View Post
    I know if you flip a coin, and it comes up tails, it has no impact on what it will come up the next time you flip it.. but the chances of going through a couple bad sessions in 250 hands should be cut somewhat no?
    This is worth thinking about again.

  3. #3


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    One of the problems with the "coin flip" analogy is that a coin flip is an INDEPENDANT event, in other words the flip of the coin has nothing to do with prior flips. Blackjack is fundamentally different, it IS compositionally dependant. In other words, the cards that have been dealt have an impact on the odds of cards to come. Therefore the observation that "8 losing hands more than once in a round of 250 hands is unlikely" has no validity. Whether any consecutive sets of "losing" hands occur is solely dependant on the composition of the deck at the time, the # of individuals in play, and the cards that have been dealt prior to that particular time. This is one of the beauties of BJ, it IS predictable. Every hand is predictable if all the variables are known. The only way to know what your true odds for any given hand are is to track the cards that have been played and then factor the favorability accordingly.
    “The essence of independence has been to think and act according to standards from within, not without.”
    Aleister Crowley

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    Quote Originally Posted by dharmaprija View Post
    One of the problems with the "coin flip" analogy is that a coin flip is an INDEPENDANT event... Blackjack is fundamentally different
    The liklihood of a win or loss is (almost) independent in blackjack of whether you've previously won or lost. So leaving on a high etc. make about as little sense as doing the same with coin flips. Like you say, knowing something about the composition of the remaining deck is actually useful and gives you good reasons for wanting to leave (or not).

    The comparison to coin flip is also interesting from another perspective - what is random to one person (as they have no stronger information) is not necessarily to another. The "coin flip is a 50-50 independent trial" is just a model (usually described by using the terms "fair coin") but if you could e.g. observe some physical information about the flip (speed of rotation, upward acceleration etc.) then you may be able to predict heads or tails better than 50% of the time. Much like with a roulette wheel...anyway, we're drifting off topic, even though it was a voodoo topic!

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    Quote Originally Posted by zengrifter View Post
    OP has referred to "maturity of chance" which attempts to reconcile large numbers with the FLAW of averages.
    The easiest way to attempt this idiocy is to play at home on PC until large loosing streak has occured, then run to the casino to exploit the correction.
    Haha, that's brilliant - best application of the "maturity of chance" I've heard!

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    If I wanted to have fun and lose money anyways I wouldn't worry about progressions. First I would line up at the bar with the flair bartenders. I would open my mouth wide and get a few free shots followed by more drinks. Then if I wanted to lose money at the tables I would pick a table with some cute chicks or funny folks and play as big as I could stomach without giving a damn to progressions, strategy, counting, or anything else. If I'm going to go through the effort of learning some sort of strategy I might as well pick one that works and makes me a lot.

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    By making your huge lose rare doesn't mean it won't come on your first progression. It is equally likely to come at any time.

    It is fun to play with these things at the kitchen table or on your computer for free but to risk your money in such a foolish way is stupid. You would be better off flat betting. In blackjack your advantage or the small disadvantage if you know BS is due to blackjacks, doubles and splits. Other than blackjacks these advantage cutting plays don't work well with progressions like the martingale and....

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