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Thread: Progression antics

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    Senior Member dharmaprija's Avatar
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    Talking Progression antics

    I was bored and figured I would read a book about blackjack other than a trusted source, just to see exactly what the offering was. The book is called "Progression Blackjack" by Dahl. He spends alot of time bashing card counting for not working, yet gives absolutely no EVIDENCE of this claim. No math, no sims, no experimentation other than he "tried" it and it didn't work for him(variance!). In the contents he lists "why counting doesn't work", and "the end of the counter era", so I at least expected some interesting reading maybe some mathematical evidence of a "low" 2% advantage over the casino, blah blah, but NOTHING. In a paragraph or two he just completely sweeps away counting without any PROOF. Hilarious. He then has the nerve to blame the counting "system" creators of making money off their systems because he "tested" them with HUNDREDS of hours, and you can't profit from them! He covered the 5's and 10's count (old) and the "point" count systems, we know these as Hi/Lo, Zen, RPC, etc. Most sims are run to the millions and we all know anything can happen in the short term. Here is his "amazing" breakthru progression: $10, $10, $15, $15, $20, $20, 30, 30, 50, 50, 70, 70, 100, 100. He claims all you will ever lose is your INITIAL bet! You bet the min. until you win, then you jump up. So he claims if you bet 10 and win then you would bet 10 again so then if you lose you are even. He then lists your profits if you were to lose after a particular hand like this losing 2nd hand=even, 3rd=$5profit, 4th=$20, 5th=$30, 6th=50, 7th=60, 8th=90, 9th=100, 10th=150, 11th=180, 12th=250, 13th=290, 14th=390....and so on. He also says that if you WIN a bj you jump bets by one level and if you win a double down or a split you jump two levels. I have a few questions and/or problems with this system, I would like to hear everyone elses and if someone can sim this somehow it would be uproarious. First question:
    1: How many of you have EVER won 14 or MORE hands in a row???? Mine is 9
    2: How often do we end up losing MORE than one hand in a row? For me it seems like its OFTEN
    3: How often do we lose 6 or more hands in a row? For me it seems like more than should be normal.
    If you lose hands in a row your BR is going to get killed eventually anyway and it seems to happen EVERY shoe so with this progression (regression) you are going to end up losing in the long run, the way I see it. Please input all your slams and derision below....some math would be nice

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    nice chip for your avatar dharmaprija I have too much work to do the math, but i bet the book was hysterical. Great Post

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    But he tested them for HUNDREDS of hours! They CANT not work!

    Here is an amazing secret to calculate the ev of any progression system:

    -(amount wagered x house edge)

    I could make a spreadsheet that lists the percentages of each possible outcome to show this, but it would be a complete waste of time. I can think of more pleasurable ways to waste time. The bottom line is that, absent any additional information, the house edge is what it is.

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    Senior Member Frostbyte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dharmaprija View Post
    1: How many of you have EVER won 14 or MORE hands in a row???? Mine is 9
    2: How often do we end up losing MORE than one hand in a row? For me it seems like its OFTEN
    1. Before I altered my playstyle to full wonging I once played an H17 8-deck shoe at a $5 table where the TC went to -6 in the first two decks. I played the entire shoe heads-up without losing or pushing a single hand.
    2. After I made the aforemention alteration I played (at a later session) I played against a 4-deck S17 shoe where I was betting my max for two and a half of the four decks (from one deck dealt all the way to the end of a half-deck cut) and lost or pushed every single max bet.

    Variance is a fickle harpy.
    "Wait a minute. How do you beat someone to death with their own skull? That doesn't seem physically possible." "That's what Jimmy kept screaming: 'This doesn't seem physically possible!'"

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    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    Slow positive progressions are probably the best money management system for non-counting square players to use. They will shape the magnitude of wins and losses such that they will have somewhat more frequent small losing sessions and a shot at a good size win every once in a while when they catch a streak of wins, doubles, and pushes. Where these progressions fall apart in negative counts is the player eventually wins several hands in a row when mostly small cards are left and gets a double down or pair of 2's vs dealer 5 and splits/doubles with big money and the dealer draws to 21 and wipes out all of that profit and then some. It still comes down to (action x edge) and changing bet sizes based on wins and losses just changes the distribution of session results, not the global outcome.

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    Senior Member dharmaprija's Avatar
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    Wow...2 1/2 deck loss...and did I read right? An entire 8 deck with no loss or push?
    “The essence of independence has been to think and act according to standards from within, not without.”
    Aleister Crowley

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    User is banned, content deleted.
    Last edited by zengrifter; 12-22-2012 at 03:45 AM.

  8. #8
    Senior Member dharmaprija's Avatar
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    Wow. You have the best stories ever/always.
    “The essence of independence has been to think and act according to standards from within, not without.”
    Aleister Crowley

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    Senior Member Frostbyte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dharmaprija View Post
    Wow...2 1/2 deck loss...and did I read right? An entire 8 deck with no loss or push?
    Both true. I'm not proud of playing an entire cold shoe but decided with such a ridiculous count I might as well stick around until I lost one. Leaving a winning streak might have harmed longevity.
    "Wait a minute. How do you beat someone to death with their own skull? That doesn't seem physically possible." "That's what Jimmy kept screaming: 'This doesn't seem physically possible!'"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frostbyte View Post
    Both true. I'm not proud of playing an entire cold shoe but decided with such a ridiculous count I might as well stick around until I lost one. Leaving a winning streak might have harmed longevity.
    As the saying goes, "Play in a cold shoe until you lose a hand."
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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