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Thread: A study by Stanford that says ASM's are not random.

  1. #1


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    A study by Stanford that says ASM's are not random.

    Lots of mathematics but the conclusions at the end are important..

    http://statweb.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/casino.pdf

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I already responded to this. NO, it did nothing of the sort. Read the study and understand it before you post something like this again with a false conclusion.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Lots of mathematics but the conclusions at the end are important..

    http://statweb.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/casino.pdf
    So hard to get a Ph.D.

    This is hard core mathematics.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I already responded to this. NO, it did nothing of the sort. Read the study and understand it before you post something like this again with a false conclusion.
    For people who are too lazy to read the whole article, the conclusion from the article is

    The study above shows that a single iteration
    of a 10-shelf shuffler is not sufficiently random. The president of the company responded
    “We are not pleased with your conclusions, but we believe them and that’s what we hired
    you for.”

  5. #5
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Correct, the study concluded that there is a trivial solution to the initial design that would make the device adequately random. That's why they commissioned a study.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Correct, the study concluded that there is a trivial solution to the initial design that would make the device adequately random. That's why they commissioned a study.
    Also the author used the words "not sufficiently random". It basically said I don't know. He can't reach an object conclusion.

  7. #7
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Please read the study. Seriously, I hate to support casinos. But, I hate worse to libel anyone. And misleading info is not helpful to APs. Jumping to conclusions is a sure path to failure.
    Last edited by Norm; 04-03-2017 at 03:53 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Please read the study. Seriously, I hate to support casinos. But, I hate worse to libel anyone. And misleading info is not helpful to APs. Jumping to conclusions is a sure path to failure.
    my reading was that it was not sufficiently random and a suggestion was made to make it more random. Whether the manufacturers did this, whether casinos require a second round is up for debate.

  9. #9
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    This study was preliminary based on a design. There wasn't even a physical device to study. There wasn't even an alpha test. Do not suggest crimes without evidence.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Random = unpredictable

    Sufficiently random = unpredictable for X% of the population.

    A single deck BJ game can be played such that the cards are picked up from the previous round and dealt without shuffling, just a cut, and most people could not predict the next card. For those people the deal would be sufficiently random. The typical 3 passes and one strip single deck shuffle is sufficiently random for everyone. It takes 7-9 passes to completely randomize a single deck, FWIW.

  11. #11


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    A study by Stanford that says ASM's are not random.

    Just
    Last edited by pilotzone; 08-01-2017 at 12:45 AM.

  12. #12
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    No. Blackjack only has ten different cards, not 52. Most casino shuffles these days are more complex than required.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  13. #13


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    You could probably find an even bigger discrepancy by looking at the correlations between pairs of cards instead of their absolute change in position. For a random shuffle the histogram of gap sizes between formerly adjacent cards would be linear because there are 51-k ways to have a gap size of k. Shelf shufflers would have zigzags in that histogram corresponding to the number of shelves. And human shuffles would be biased towards smaller gaps unless they do half a dozen perfect riffles, in which case they'd be biased towards larger gaps.

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