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  1. #79


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Well, in basketball. You design your offenses based on the size and players abilities. You decide on which offense or play works best based on what the defense presents. A coach is going to make his players look like clowns running a 4 corners rotation against a zone defense. Conversely, you would set picks against a man to man defense. You do what it takes to win.

    In blackjack, it's the players ability to count, the number of decks, the heat, the pen, and the game rules. You do what it takes to win and also play another day.
    Say, I heard that basketball players have low reproductive rates - Something to do with dribbling before shooting. Any thoughts?

  2. #80


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    My first game in college. One of our Seniors kept hollering at me to "shoot the nut." Considering I'm a 6'1" skinny freshman and he is a 6'9" muscle Senior with an afro the size of Rhode Island, I thought that meant he wanted me to pass him the ball. The more I passed him the ball, the angrier he got, and the louder he'd holler "Shoot The Nut." I'm thinking, "man, I'm going to have to fight my own teammate in my first game in front of our own fans. How weird is that?"

    At halftime, he just glares at me in the locker room and says to another player, "man, this guy won't shoot his nut, that's why we are losing."

    We return to the floor for the 2nd half. He says, "If we lose this game because you won't shoot the nut, I'm kicking your ass." Clearly shaken, and feisty by nature, I say "what's your problem, I passed you the ball everytime down the floor." Another player gets in between us. The player says "the ball Moses, he wants you to shoot the ball, so they can't double team him."

    "Well, then why didn't he say that?" He did, "he calls the ball a nut." Why? I ask.
    "Because it looks like a walnut."

    We became great friends and still laugh about that story. Hell, i thought it was some type of weird initiation. Can you imagine, if I would've been intimidated to do what I thought he was asking?
    My wrestling coach at University would often yell, during competition - Hard on it, hard on it - we had plenty of laughs on that one. Once, while competing in a tournament at another University, during a scramble for control, my thumb went up another guys ass. He went Oooop, squeezed his cheeks, flipped over and I got the pin. He congratulated me on my victory. Another time, this asshole was fighting dirty - so, he bashed my ear and took a shot. The forward motion of his move made his nose catch the forward motion of my hip, at which time he got hit with a vicious cross face, I was one strong mother, flattened him on his stomach and rotated his head towards his ankles, while he was still flat on the mat. When his nose and ankles almost met, I simply finished the cradle and got the pin. The stupid prick came up swinging.

    If you're nice, and get a few beers into me, I'll tell you about the famous step over triple toe hold.

  3. #81


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    Moses, Tarzan doesn't just play shoe games with his counting method. Best I recall he played 1D and 2D games, when available.
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

  4. #82
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Below are the minimum requirements for a large bet with the 4 column count in single deck. Sorry I can't currently put it on a spreadsheet. From left to right are the minimum of 10s, 89s, 67s, 25s, played.

    The following are based on an even distribution within subgroupings. More (6,7) removed than (8,9) raises RC/TC. More (4,5) removed than (2,3) raises RC/TC higher than the estimate for an even distribution.

    0125 5-3-0-0 @1 TBRC+6, TERC+6.5

    1127 6-2-0-0 @1 TBRC+6.6, TERC+7.1

    2227 5-2-0-0 @.75 TBRC+6.8, TERC+6.8, .75 decks remain with no (A) removed, there is one surplus (A) which adds +1.2 to RC

    3238 5-2-0-0 @.75 TBRC+6.8, TERC+7.3 " " "

    4248 4-2-0-0 @.75 TBRC+5.8, TERC+6.8 " " "

    5349 4-2-0-0 @.5 TBRC+6, TERC+6.5, .5 decks remain with no (A) removed, there are two surplus (A) which adds +2.4 to RC

    6359 3-2-0-0 @.5 TBRC+6, TERC+7 " " "

    736 10 3-2-0-0 @.5 TBRC+6, TERC+7.5 " " "

    8 46 10 2-2-0-0 @.5 TBRC+5, TERC+6 " " "

    9 47 11. 2-2-0-0 @.5 TBRC+5, TERC+6.5 " " "

    At the point you have .75 remaining with no (A) removed, you have one surplus (A), add +1.2 to your RC. If you had .75 decks remaining with two (A) removed, you would have one deficit (A) and -1.2 from your RC. These RC's are calculated based on assuming an even distribution within the subgroupings. For any given deck composition, there is a relatively exact RC/TC to be pinging on and a clearly defined playing decision for that specific deck composition.

    For each line you can drop the 89s by 1 If the 67s or 2-5s are 1 higher. You could drop the 67s by 2 If the 2-5 are 2 higher. Or vice versa. Provided 67s are not less than 10s.

    Approximately What would the Tarzan TC be for single deck on each line if 0 Aces played? 1 Ace? 2 Aces? 3 Aces?
    For any given deck composition, there is a relatively exact RC/TC to be pinging on and a correct playing decision for that specific deck composition. This and your spread and bet ramp are your first priority. Sometimes you seem a little vague, Moses... "When my big bet is out there" doesn't tell me what your bet spread and betting ramp are worth a shit, just so you know. Clue me in on exactly what bet spread flies under the radar, what is the max bet spread you can get away with? Also, to give me idea of your utilization of what you do in regard to playing decisions, I sent you an email and asked a few questions.
    Last edited by Tarzan; 02-24-2017 at 01:13 AM.

  5. #83


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    "Don S. Would you always or never play two hands in a high TC if you knew only one Ace remained?"

    If I normally played two hands in a very high count, I wouldn't let the fact that only one ace remains stop me from continuing to do that. Your edge might be somewhat reduced, but getting blackjacks is far from your only edge in a very high count.

    "Hockey question. My rule in sports betting is good teams find a way to win and bad teams find a way to lose. So bet on good vs bad teams at a great price."

    Easier said than done. If you know one's a good team and one's a bad one, why isn't that already reflected in the price?

    "But Hockey appears to be more like variance in blackjack. I mean grown men are are skating on ice trying to hit a hard piece of rubber into a small goal/net with a stick and that guy from Halloween that covers 90% of the space. Perhaps a soccer goal with Pee Wee Herman goalies would offer more strategy. Is it prudent to apply the same logic as in the other 3 major sports?"

    To me, there is really only a single, fundamental rule of handicapping: you do your very best to assess the correct odds for the game, and make a play when you feel the odds offered reflect an opportunity. It's a simply precept to enunciate, but an incredibly difficult one to exploit for profit.

    Don

  6. #84
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    A real life example of 4 column vs conventional. My count was 8-2-6-12 with 1 left Ace.
    Deviation, Moses. One isolated hand going one way or the other on a balmy day in paradise doesn't establish anything. Try for a bigger test sample!Hahaha Follow through with what you are theoretically supposed to do. You are looking for the overall outcome rather than fixating on short term results from too small a sample group to mean anything at all.

  7. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
    To ZenMaster_Flash:

    Would you agree that moses would benefit from the Tarzan System?
    A simple system than that of which moses is currently using?
    Moses' maintains a belief that if he makes plays that are (barely)
    different from Basic Strategy he will be "backed off" (or worse).

    By refusing to play a Single Deck game (his only choice) with enhanced
    Playing Efficiency, he almost completely rejects the potential benefits
    from the ground-breaking work of Tarzan, as P.E. is the beating heart of
    his fine protocols.

  8. #86


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    Tarzan any updates when or if you going to make youre system available ? You've provided a chart for 12 v 2 with hit/stand decisions, none of the three columns exceed value of 10, do you further reduce them if theyre above 10? How can i come up with some of the indicies for this system? Thank you

  9. #87
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    What comes into question is if the system is worth being made available, and if so it would be more in line with intellectual curiosity rather than much in the way of practical value.

  10. #88


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    What comes into question is if the system is worth being made available, and if so it would be more in line with intellectual curiosity rather than much in the way of practical value.
    Tarzan, with all due respect, the allegations that the nDAS, nRSA, D10 rules hinders/inhibits the Column player by hurting PE are being made, but what can be said about your count with regards to the previous rules stated in the previous clause I wrote?

    Would the drop in EV be a "no biggie" event or would it be a "reconsider your life choices" event?

  11. #89
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
    Tarzan, with all due respect, the allegations that the nDAS, nRSA, D10 rules hinders/inhibits the Column player by hurting PE are being made, but what can be said about your count with regards to the previous rules stated in the previous clause I wrote?

    Would the drop in EV be a "no biggie" event or would it be a "reconsider your life choices" event?
    I mentioned about this on another thread. Look at Don's charts at the difference between 31/52, H17 and 31/52, H17, no DAS, d10 in terms of SCORE. It chops it nearly in half. These "allegations" appear to be cold, hard facts.

    "Deck estimation is just that: an estimation. You don't need to know HOW many cards have been drawn, just that you have one less 2-5 cards, two less 6-9 cards, or three extra 10's."

    Yes, I reduce it down. One less {2-5}, two less {6-9}, or three extra {T} means something different at 2.75 decks remaining than at 1.25 decks remaining is all. Imbalances within the {2-5} and {6-9} groupings, key card effect also make an impact.

    I've been trying to determine what Moses is doing, the logic behind it, and I'd have to steer him off the "Percentage of these, percentage of those and... Viola! You gotta the big fat a pizza pie!" or whatever it is and think more in terms of EOR. It would be so very different that I'd probably have to tell him to forget everything he's ever learned or thought of because we're going to start over and think of it a little differently. Old dogs have a tougher time with new tricks than young dogs have with old tricks. I would have to look much closer to determine how effective T count could possibly be at Moses home game. It's not such a great game that I'm catching the next flight out or anything.
    Last edited by Tarzan; 02-25-2017 at 02:41 AM.

  12. #90


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Interesting story I heard in church today. It could apply to blackjack players.

    This little girl loved to swim. She was on a team. Her teammates and coaches adored her. But she would always come in last.

    So one day, her parent writes the events for the day on her arms and says, "I want you to WIN your races today." The little girls eyes got big as saucers and she looks confused and asks "it's a race? Why do they call it a swim meet?" I thought we were here to meet people, have fun, a picnic, and go swimming.
    My goodness. Have to re-learn to look at events as fun and not worry about win or loose. Nope, as adults with lot responsibilities for family we have to win or at least not loosing. If you can not withstand the heat, get out of the kitchen.

  13. #91
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    T3. Which of the following deck compositions would you consider whacky? Tarzan. Which ones are considered not good betting opportunities in your count?
    Tens, 89s,67s,25s Aces are the cards played in single deck
    743 12 2 TC+10
    6469 3 TC+8
    3537 2 TC+5
    563 10 2 TC+10
    864 10 2 TC+4
    4447 2 TC+4.5
    334 10 3 TC+14
    5549 1 TC+13
    865 10 2 TC+6
    7368 2 TC+6
    5147 0 TC+7
    965 11 2 TC+5.5
    Hopefully I got that right, I had to flop it around to something I can interpret. They are all positive counts calling for big bets, max bets... Duh, let me see... the TC+14, what to do, what to do... What is the purpose of asking this? Those are all normal compositions seen in highly positive counts. How about something truly wacky, using your numbers, something like 9-0-0-6-3 or 2-6-7-1-2 just to be adventurous or something? What is the difference? What do you make of these deck compositions you listed? Also, the TC I estimated is based on an even distribution within the {2-5} grouping... only 16 cards played, wouldn't you know if you'd seen any (4,5) or not? This impacts TC. Where are you going with this, what purpose does this serve you? Are you questioning when to slap your max bet out there or something?

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