Don and Gronbog, thanks for clarifying about ASC. I didn't think of that -- but that makes sense, you'd be dividing by decks remaining twice (using the method I wrote before).


Tthree, the thing is, EITS or a PB (if they suspect you of counting), are NOT going to be comparing your play to HILO perfect play. They'll be looking to see if you raise/decrease your bet relative to the count -- not ramping with 100% correlation. Remember, they don't know what your CVCX sim showed, all they know is what you're betting and what the HILO count is. They don't care if you're overbetting your desired ramp or underbetting it from one round to the next. Your ramp might say to bet $200 at TC 4 and $150 at TC 3. If the TC is 4 and you bet $150 and next round it drops to TC 3 and you bet $200 -- all the EITS & PB is going to see is you're still increasing your bet with a + count.

And it's silly to speculate how a HILO or HO2 counter would play, as if they are both playing side by side at the same table (why are you even playing with other people you know are counting...? NVM). HILO and HO2 are highly correlated.


There is without a doubt (IMO) HO2 w/ ASC is superior to HILO, at least on paper. Yes, it's going to have a lower N0, higher SCORE, higher EV, etc. etc. I don't think anybody is arguing against that. It's the "everything else" that just isn't true.

I'll upload a few graphs (10 maybe?) to show HILO vs HO2 w/ASC bet ramp side by side. Not sure how long it'll take. I'd rather not take a screen-shot, crop out the rest of my computer screen, upload to an image hosting service, then paste link here. If anyone has an easier solution, let me know.