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Thread: A curious case of a ploppy

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    A curious case of a ploppy

    Recently I caught a discussion among ploppies. They were talking about someone I have seen a lot in my local casino. According to the regular ploppies, this guy played here seven days a week, at least ten hours a day. And he NEVER LOSE. Since his max bet is $90 in the $25 table and his plays seem random, I never considered the possibility that he may be an AP, I began to observe his play after hearing the gossip.

    Holy cow. The guy is an AP. I have a new perspectives of the game after observing him. As I said, his spread in the 6D game is less than 4 to 1. When he has no advantage, he only bet $25. That is his main principle Even he has advantage, he increased his spread cautiously and passively. And based on my observations, this guy is indeed winning even his effective spread is about 3 to 1 or 2.5 to 1!

    Like me, the pit boss has no clue. He played rated and got the best treatment because he plays 70 hours a week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    Recently I caught a discussion among ploppies. They were talking about someone I have seen a lot in my local casino. According to the regular ploppies, this guy played here seven days a week, at least ten hours a day. And he NEVER LOSE. Since his max bet is $90 in the $25 table and his plays seem random, I never considered the possibility that he may be an AP, I began to observe his play after hearing the gossip.

    Holy cow. The guy is an AP. I have a new perspectives of the game after observing him. As I said, his spread in the 6D game is less than 4 to 1. When he has no advantage, he only bet $25. That is his main principle Even he has advantage, he increased his spread cautiously and passively. And based on my observations, this guy is indeed winning even his effective spread is about 3 to 1 or 2.5 to 1!

    Like me, the pit boss has no clue. He played rated and got the best treatment because he plays 70 hours a week.
    3 to 1 spread is not strong enough to beat a 6 deck game, unless you wong out in all the negatives. Even then, he is not making much money, which is why they are putting up with him.

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    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    Who would play for win rate of 30 cents an hour?

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    Firstly, there is no such thing as ALWAYS wins.

    Secondly, he will be barred soon enough, (for

    as a "headstone"), playing far too many hours.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    Recently I caught a discussion among ploppies. They were talking about someone I have seen a lot in my local casino. According to the regular ploppies, this guy played here seven days a week, at least ten hours a day. And he NEVER LOSE. Since his max bet is $90 in the $25 table and his plays seem random, I never considered the possibility that he may be an AP, I began to observe his play after hearing the gossip.

    Holy cow. The guy is an AP. I have a new perspectives of the game after observing him. As I said, his spread in the 6D game is less than 4 to 1. When he has no advantage, he only bet $25. That is his main principle Even he has advantage, he increased his spread cautiously and passively. And based on my observations, this guy is indeed winning even his effective spread is about 3 to 1 or 2.5 to 1!

    Like me, the pit boss has no clue. He played rated and got the best treatment because he plays 70 hours a week.
    Did this just as an "What if?" to go with Moo's new thread. What if this is an example of Non-Thorp Orthodoxy? No one said how much he was making. But if it's noticeable by other casino regulars, it should be more than 30 cents an hour.

    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    3 to 1 spread is not strong enough to beat a 6 deck game, unless you wong out in all the negatives. Even then, he is not making much money, which is why they are putting up with him.
    This is a Thorp Orthodoxy statement.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    Who would play for win rate of 30 cents an hour?
    And so is this.

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    I think a lot of our members makes assumptions . There are other factors you guys didn't bother to think before dismissing this "guy".

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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    I think a lot of our members makes assumptions . There are other factors you guys didn't bother to think before dismissing this "guy".
    As far as I know, people are saying this guy have been practically living in this casino for about three years now. Based on his lengthy playing time, he should be making more than $100K a year if he makes $30 a hour. Note that this is a large casino. They probably don't track people whose top bet is $200 let alone $95 with very clever cover.

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    They're probably just spreading ploppy bs. But he could be up to something.
    The Cash Cow.

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    Maybe this guy's goal is to break even and live in the casino from comps? Not everyone is after cash necessarily...

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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Hmmm. Was this guy only wearing a hand towel? Was there a monkey sitting at his feet? I don't know doodly squat about shoes. But I've wondered how is it you guys are getting so fired up about 16 to 1 spreads when (according to CV Data) the average winning percentage is 51% in best case scenarios.

    Don S said the National Average sports bet winning percentage is 56%. This is unthinkable in blackjack. Yet unimpressive is sports betting.

    BJ. Is the guy playing through negative decks? Or sitting some out?
    He played through negative decks sometimes. But all the breaks he took happened when the count is deeply negative. Since he claims that he owns a cafe or store and has to supervise the employees, he needs to use the phone a lot. And he is courteous to other players, insisting not reentering the game in the middle of the shoe once he made the phone call.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hitthat16 View Post
    Maybe this guy's goal is to break even and live in the casino from comps? Not everyone is after cash necessarily...
    That's actually a really good point. For every way there is to make money at a casino, there's two or three ways on how to milk the most out of your losses from them. Honestly, I think I could, for less than $10,000 annually, cover my RFB, entertainment, and travel needs for round the clock 365 day luxury at the casinos. Hell, I already do it for a profit in the first place, but I'm talking about Fine Dining 7 days a week and such. I might just have to test that theory when I retire from APing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Interesting. So he is playing defensively. Can you tell if he plays all indices or just the fearsome 14.?
    His index plays puzzled me. I use Hi-Lo primarily and switched to Omega 2 in some days. His play did not match either of mine. Can only say he play all negative count using Basic Strategy. On positive count, his play seems to be mystic. He tends to stand and surrender more often than my index requiring me. But it works for him. I suspect he has solved the shoe clumping problem since his play looks better than Hi-Lo and AO2.

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    Ask him if he is Ronster.

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