How often are you ahead after 1 hour?

**Cardguy** · 10-22-2016, 08:55 PM

6D 4 players H17 DAS LS NRSA 75% pen, play all, 100 rounds/hr, HiLo Sweet 16 and FAB 4, 1:12 spread ($25-300), 40K bankroll, 2% ROR

If I sim this with CVCX, I get the following: Win/hr $61.17, SD/hr $1,110.48, SCORE 30.35.

The sim shows that I'm playing about 73% of the hands at a disadvantage (TC <= 0). My sense is that if I played one million sessions and each session consisted of just 100 rounds, I would find that I lost more sessions than I won BUT that my wins would be considerably bigger and the average win per hour would end up at $61. Is this correct? If so how often are you ahead after 1 hour (100 rounds)?

Thanks.

**Bodarc** · 10-22-2016, 11:55 PM

No, you will not lose more sessions than you win. Using your figures and a play all game, the 73% should be played at $25 while the 27% will be played at a much higher betting average because of your spread. Unless you hit some bad variance, you should win somewhere around 65 to 70% of your sessions. In 2015 I won 72% of my sessions but I was not strictly counting and using a play all strategy.

**Phoebe** · 10-23-2016, 04:08 AM

Really ?
https://blackjackincolor.com/blackjackvariance3.htm

**Cardguy** · 10-23-2016, 04:29 AM

Merci, Phillipe (and Norm). This was exactly the information I was looking for. If a session consists of a single round of the top of a fresh shoe, we will only win about 43% of sessions. It obviously takes a while before we see a positive count and have the advantage. Even then, we will lose more hands than we win, but this will be more more than compensated for by blackjacks, doubles, and splits. I asked the question to learn how much time must be available to make it worth it to play. Extrapolating from the graph, I would guess it's around 40 rounds at a minimum. For instance, if I have only 20 minutes to spend in the casino, it would not be a good idea for me to sit down at a fresh shoe since I'll probably only get in 30 rounds or so.

**Phoebe** · 10-23-2016, 04:48 AM

I guess it don't mater. Life is an unique session with breaks.
The main is to play entire shoes (or wongout if possible and needed). If you don't do it, you reduce pen.

**Cardguy** · 10-23-2016, 04:58 AM

Originally Posted by Philippe B

I guess it don't mater. Life is a unique session with breaks.
The main is to play entire shoes (or wongout if possible and needed). If you don't do it, you reduce pen.

You're absolutely right. As long as you have the time to play the entire shoe, then it's a good idea to sit down and play. If there's a chance that you might have to leave mid-shoe with a positive count, then you should have never sat down.

Then the question becomes, how long does it take to play an entire 6D or 8D shoe AND, how long does it take on average to find a table with a fresh shoe? Mmmmm.

**Stealth** · 10-23-2016, 05:10 AM

Originally Posted by Philippe B

Really ?
https://blackjackincolor.com/blackjackvariance3.htm

It appears this sim was doing all play. Win rates will increase if you are avoiding negative counts. My experience is that, if you are playing with an advantage (wonging in and out to avoid negative counts) that your session win rate will be higher than the chart and likely around 60-65%.

**Phoebe** · 10-23-2016, 05:34 AM

I agree and it's what Norm say.
OP was about "play all". My answer too.

**Bodarc** · 10-23-2016, 06:01 AM

Well that's what I get for answering off the top of my head and from personal experience without researching. Sorry about that Cardguy.

**DSchles** · 10-23-2016, 09:46 AM

Sigh. So much discussion over something that's been covered in such detail: BJA3, Table 2.2, page 21.

Can you spell "reinventing the wheel," yet again?

Don

**Three** · 10-23-2016, 11:30 AM

Don is right. There should be 1 answer to every question on this forum. Buy Don's book and read it. Norm you can post Don's suggested answer to every question as a default response to every post. No need for a forum. I have started posting that as answers to some questions but when the inquirer's apparent lack of knowledge seems to show a need for a more detailed answer I try to give it to them in a fashion that has them learning rather than absorbing an answer with little increased understanding of the issue they asked about.

**Norm** · 10-23-2016, 02:29 PM

Originally Posted by Cardguy

How often are you ahead after 1 hour?

6D 4 players H17 DAS LS NRSA 75% pen, play all, 100 rounds/hr, HiLo Sweet 16 and FAB 4, 1:12 spread ($25-300), 40K bankroll, 2% ROR

If I sim this with CVCX, I get the following: Win/hr $61.17, SD/hr $1,110.48, SCORE 30.35.

To get the number for your specific circumstances, after setting all the CVCX rules/options, click Calculate, then Actual-Probability of your actual results. Enter 1 in amount won/lost, the number of hands in hands, and click Calculate. The probability of being ahead for the rules, penetration, spread, optimal bets, and strategy will be instantly provided.

**Exoter175** · 10-23-2016, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by Tthree

Don is right. There should be 1 answer to every question on this forum. Buy Don's book and read it. Norm you can post Don's suggested answer to every question as a default response to every post. No need for a forum. I have started posting that as answers to some questions but when the inquirer's apparent lack of knowledge seems to show a need for a more detailed answer I try to give it to them in a fashion that has them learning rather than absorbing an answer with little increased understanding of the issue they asked about.

I'll admit, sometimes I missed reading your posts.

@OP, short answer you might have been looking for, about +/- 1.5 units worth is very common, though as T3 will tell you about curves at taco bell, you can find yourself on any position on that chart after 1 hour with such a small "snapshot" to look at. I'll even add that HPH at that point, matters more than the 1 hour arbitrary window.