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Thread: Break-Even Strategy

  1. #1


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    Break-Even Strategy

    Hi everyone,

    I've been playing BJ, on and off, for more than 20 years. Started with basic strategy, then learned card counting and quickly realized that the games available where I live are very, very tough to beat (8-decks). With not enough tables to wong in and out, and frankly not having enough guts to go for dramatic roller coaster rides, I stopped playing for some time.

    After a pause of a couple of years, I went back and just played perfect basic strategy for a few sessions. Actually made some money, although I know that in the long run that's not going to be case. The rules of the game in the local casino are: 8-decks, S17, BJ pays 3:2. The Wizard of Odds site calculator shows around 0.45% house advantage.

    So, I am thinking of trying to use very modest spread (like 1-2, or maybe 1-3). This having in mind that anything higher than that would most likely draw unwanted attention very quickly. Also being the only casino in the nearby area, with not too many BJ tables to choose from, I can't really go for the hit and run strategy.

    I have never in the past had a player's card, but now I got one. If I could play for comps (a free meal, here and there), and roughly break even with this strategy, I'd be okay with it.

    So, basically a perfect basic strategy, plus very modest spreads, with occasional bathroom breaks, when the count is really bad, plus a few of the Illustrious 18 rules (16 vs 10, insurance, 12 vs 4) - do I have a chance of playing a break-even game, getting a few comps along the way?

  2. #2


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    Yes i believe so if you wong out early and maybe go with a 1-6 spread and maybe a level 2 count . Wonging out and 1-6 spread is the important part ,not the level 2 count.

  3. #3


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I ran your scenario through CVCX for you.
    I assumed 8 deck, S17, DAS, $25 min, play all. I used FELT-F so YMMV.

    A spread of 1-3 would get you around $6 an hour.
    Good luck!

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJPloppy View Post
    I ran your scenario through CVCX for you.
    I assumed 8 deck, S17, DAS, $25 min, play all. I used FELT-F so YMMV.

    A spread of 1-3 would get you around $6 an hour.
    Good luck!
    Yes, those are the rules, except I typically try to stay with $10 min, and if not available, then $15. I guess for $10 min, it would be $2.4 an hour, or for $15 min - $3.6 an hour. I'd be happy with it, playing for comps, and still having some fun at the tables.

    Do you think that 1-3 spread, even though very moderate, may still draw attention?

    Pardon my ignorance, but what is "FELT-F"?

    Thank you for running it in CVCX for me.

  5. #5


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    FELT- F means Fairly Easy Level Two with Full Indices. It is one of the easier balanced Level 2 true counted strategies and is more powerful than Hi - Lo. The count tags are as follows:

    2 = +1
    3 - 6 = +2
    7 = +1
    8 - 9 = 0
    10 and Ace = -2

    Note that the 10 and the Ace have the same tag which cuts down the error rate when using this count.
    Last edited by davethebuilder; 10-06-2016 at 01:51 AM.
    Casino Enemy No.1

  6. #6


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    I'd recommend reading Comp City (I think that's the name of the book). It's mostly about stuff from years past, but there are still concepts that are applicable today.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by DonR04 View Post
    Yes, those are the rules, except I typically try to stay with $10 min, and if not available, then $15. I guess for $10 min, it would be $2.4 an hour, or for $15 min - $3.6 an hour. I'd be happy with it, playing for comps, and still having some fun at the tables.

    Do you think that 1-3 spread, even though very moderate, may still draw attention?

    Pardon my ignorance, but what is "FELT-F"?

    Thank you for running it in CVCX for me.
    i have never ever heard of a 1-3 spread with a $10 minimum drawing attention at an 8 deck game. I think, perhaps, it's not the concern with heat, it's that you don't want to put out more than $30 on a single hand. I have played in some small rural casinos and still never seen much concern with putting out $$40 or $60 at a $10 table.

    However, if you are ahead $200, you should just take a break, learn to rathole and not become paranoid. Feelings of paranoia occur if we think we are cheating. We are not.

  8. #8


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    There are many posts in this forum that deal with ways to not look like a counter. I have seen some lists of ideas for the newer players, but I can't remember where or from whom. You should be able to find them with some searching.

    I have also read many posts that said players in the range you are thinking of (you will see that range referred to as "red chippers"), do not get much heat. I have not played for those stakes in a long time, so I can't verify that from experience.

    Quote Originally Posted by DonR04 View Post
    Do you think that 1-3 spread, even though very moderate, may still draw attention?

  9. #9
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    I don't know your store, but the ones I've played in will let you play all day with a 1:3 spread from table minimum on a shoe game. What count are you using and what is the pen?

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by davethebuilder View Post
    FELT- F means Fairly Easy Level Two with Full Indices. It is one of the easier balanced Level 2 true counted strategies and is more powerful than Hi - Lo. The count tags are as follows:

    2 = +1
    3 - 6 = +2
    7 = +1
    8 - 9 = 0
    10 and Ace = -2

    Note that the 10 and the Ace have the same tag which cuts down the error rate when using this count.
    Thank you for explaining.

    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I think, perhaps, it's not the concern with heat, it's that you don't want to put out more than $30 on a single hand.
    It is a combination of the two. Like I said in the original post, I'm not very comfortable with the wild roller coaster rides (tried it in the past). With more moderate spread (1-3) and playing for comps, I'm guessing that those bad days, with bigger losses, are somewhat easier to swallow.

    I also brought up the heat concern having in mind that I am pretty much limited to one casino, and other than the above mentioned reason for trying to go very conservative, I'm thinking that the more aggressive spreads would not guarantee me good longevity (in case I am winning; I know they'll let you lose, regardless of the fact that they might be onto you)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix View Post
    I don't know your store, but the ones I've played in will let you play all day with a 1:3 spread from table minimum on a shoe game. What count are you using and what is the pen?
    I am using Hi-Lo, an the pen is 75%.

    Thank you all for your input.

  11. #11
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    When I plugged hi-lo with I18, s17, 8D, 75% pen into cvcx, a 1:3 spread was not enough to have an edge. 1:4 was where it basically broke even. With enough wonging, 1:3 could break even too.

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    Thank you, Fenix.

  13. #13
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    i am much like you. usually use ceasears stores. we take several vacations annually and try to use ceasears resorts for lodging/meals getting to where we need to go. get max rubins book on comps. %'s are a little off but the basic premise is accurate. get rated, sign up for e mail offers, get a web site log in. down south in bossier/biloxi/cherokee/tunica, rooms and meals are no problem at all. but you gotta ASK. its odd that when i play SLOP machines (rarely) it doesnt bother me to lose. but when i play bj it's a personal issue if i can't stay ahead. take fred renzy"s advice and for one or two sessions bet green (if luck/variance)is with you. i know the pros on this site are giggling at 5/10 25 $ bets.

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