When should I increase to a new max bet after bankroll growth has occurred? Should I just increase to a new max bet that maximizes my CE given the current bankroll amount? Is that all there is to it? Or am I taking steps backwards by not playing the same game the same way due to the fact that I'm still less than 4 x N0 by a lot and what I'm doing is very much statistically insignificant? Advice and thoughts, I very much appreciate.
There are many variables to this question and I'm not sure anyone here could give you a concrete answer. Are you full time, is your roll replenishable, how much risk are you willing to take, etc etc.
A computer would increase the stakes as bankroll growth happens (provided it wants to keep the same ROR), but it doesn't necessarily mean you should. But it is up to you.
As a previous post indicated there is too little information to be specific. There are several "sides" to this question and you should consider them all. First, if your play is governed by "Kelly" (I assume it is since CE is your stated governing concept) optimal betting" then that discipline will tell you when to raise your bet. Then there is the possibility of a replenish-able bankroll and how much comfort you have with that concept increasing your RoR. Or you have amassed a bankroll large enough to not care about RoR and are totally committed to longevity and income so you flat bet at positive counts.
Then there is the heat effect of higher top bets and how well your stores with tolerate them. If you play at one store all the time then less is likely better, if you move to several different stores then more aggression may be in order. If your bet ramp is dictated by optimal betting and you adhere to it religiously, then when the amounts are of sufficient size , you are increasing your heat index (probability of being caught). Find ways to obscure your betting to increase the difficulty in determining your skill but get the money bet.
Then there is "comfort", which is the psychological impact of the higher bet levels and the higher variance that accompanied them, only you can decide their role. All of this journey is not governed by the math!
Your comment that you are way under 4 X N0 (long term) suggest you should wong in/out as much as possible and it will lower your N0 considerably. Get to the "long term" by reducing the long term goal not by just by playing more. Value is more important than volume.
So, as is the case in most of these post, "It Depends"! Here is wishing you good variance!
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
A huge part of this decision has to do with how well you take the losses. I could easily increase my max bet. My skill level is good, my bankroll is more than sufficient and replenishable, and I've gained a nice comfort level and comportment at the tables. I thought I was ready. Then I ran into a major losing streak: about 5,000 rounds at -2.0 standard deviations on the downside.
So my suggestion would be to determine what a major losing streak would look like at your new betting level and then be truthful with yourself as to whether you could handle it financially and emotionally.
Mathprof has many posts regarding to this issue . By changing your max bets you will change your n-zero. I am almost at a point that i want to do the same thing but...reluctant. I would love to have the veterans to chime in . I just use a simple rule of if i doubled my bank i would raise my max bet by about 20 % and decrease my max bets 20 % if I only dropped 20 % of my bank.
As Stealth pointed out , there are many factors. For me, his statement 'Then there is "comfort", which is the psychological impact of the higher bet levels and the higher variance that accompanied them, only you can decide their role. All of this journey is not governed by the math!" That applies.
I am just not comfortable putting out more than $300 on one hand so I stick to DD games with $25 minimum. I will reluctantly play a wonging 6 deck game with $25 min. The other day, I had $8600 on me, my BR is about $40k, I went into the HL room, attempted playing a $50 min game but was simply too uncomfortable.
Wino I think you are jumping the gun a little to quickly. Whatever your playing bankroll is currently at, and whatever risk you are willing to play with is all a necessary part of knowing yourself. However if you think you are going to play in casinos by your own criteria period, you are in for a rude awakening. The casinos decide who gets to play and who does not. It is imperative today that all players educate themselves on the inner workings of all the different casinos they intend to play at. No two casinos are alike, and it is definitely all about blending in and playing at stakes the casino is comfortable with, without being greedy, if you want to be able return and play another day. On a side note,you will learn that the higher your level of play gets, the more you will be noticed, and you need to learn how to handle that situation.
How did you determine your current bet ramp / max bet? You don't have to play any amount before increasing or decreasing your max bet.
I'd run a sim again and see what your current risk and whatnot is. Then do it again but with a larger max bet. Then determine if it's worth it or not -- risk, EV, N0, heat, etc. should be looked at. Also, if you want to increase your max bet but need to lay down more cover to get the action down, you may not be playing a significantly better game, or even a worse game, when looking at risk, N0, EV, heat collectively.
Or, instead of increasing your max bet from $300 to $400 at +4, you could keep your $300 bet at +4, then add in a $400 bet at +5. ie: Keep the same bet ramp and all that, but add a higher max bet later on. Or at least consider it in CVCX and see how that fares with other bet ramps it makes for you.
I'd just run some sims and change the numbers around until I find something that I think will work (ie: heat), something I can tolerate (risk), and something that'll be worth it (EV & risk).
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
I think it's something that required quite a bit of thoughts . there are heat ,risk, emotional factors . You can ramp up faster and keep the same max bet if you have problems (heat). everyone one's situation is different. i have no problem doing that with my stores.
How much depends on how high you want your hourly rate to be and how much risk you are willing to embrace. Play around with a simulator and look at ROR, hourly rate and STD deviation. It's an entirely subjective question. How much risk do you want? How much do you want to earn? How willing are you to go on a 30% bankroll downswing?
BR is a funny thing. I used to think I had a $35k bankroll but when I lost about $10k in a short stretch of about 10 days playing $25 DD and $6deck games, I left upset and thinking that I will quit. I quit for about 2-3 weeks and then went back. On my first trip back, I won and my confidence was restored a bit and eventually I made it all the way back and some. However, I wonder if I would have kept playing if I had lost 50% or more.
So, I guess the bottomline for BR is not how much you have but how much of it you would be really willing to lose. I mean if you have never won more than , say $30k a year, would you be willing to lose $30k of a $40k BR and still continue on, knowing that it will take you a couple of years to recoup with just $10k left?
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