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Thread: 1 Month Check-In

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    1 Month Check-In

    RECAP: As some know, while passively learning blackjack over the last 1.5 years or so, it wasn't until fairly recently that I really dug myself in. My bankroll is not acceptable, however is replenishable. I'm red chipping at table minimums using a 1-16 spread splitting to 2 hands at .75 of max bet. For now, using Hilo with Ill 18 and a few others however not yet what I'd call "complete". Likely switching to RPC or Zen; more so for the masking effect in that it seems most pit/EITS are checking with Hilo. Longevity is my #1 priority. I have a fulltime job working 24/48s so it enables me to play often and at times easier to sit down heads up. While being a "pro" would be nice, my first and main goal is to bring in only 1k a month.

    My actual live play began in September. While I didn't get to play as many sessions as I were hoping to, I exceeded EV by $310. If the comp value for rooms,food, etc is added I'm at $810. SD and variance have been in my favor, however I do my best to play heads up to get in more rounds per hour. I can't say I've encountered any heat, but if I have a max bet out and that results in any splits, DDs, or index play, I don't wait around and see how they feel. I understand this game is about the long run, and greed seems to be the quickest path to an early ban hammer.

    I've gotten in 3 trips and about 9 sessions. Most of my sessions usually are only 2-5 shoes, but this month I've already had two fairly entertaining stories. At one of my "training" spots which is more of a dump where I play more aggressively, on my first trip here I was at 3rd with 3 others at the table. HiLo TC of 6, and I've got A,9 with max bet out. Dealer showing a 6. Being that I came into this place with the mindset of it being an experiment zone, I went ahead and went the aggressive route and doubled my Soft 20. The ploppies erupt with dissatisfaction, informing me to return to slots as to no longer disrupt the oh so intricate flow and inform me there are certain ways one must play the game. I jokingly replied with "scared money doesn't make money!" as dealer handed me hard 20. Dealer turns over the whole card to reveal 16, then draws a 3. Wipes out the entire table as I cheer and give some claps playing the gambler persona. Dealer pays me as the ploppies become furious rednecks for stealing the dealer bust card. The entire table cleared after that hand and I was left heads up for the last few hands of the still rich shoe. (FYI, the next highest bet on the table was only $10)

    Then my last trip, I sat down at a $5 min shoe at shuffle, and the count begins to climb in the last 1/3rd of the shoe. I'm working up my spread but it seems all I could do was push at best. I get out to 1x$100, dealt a pair, split, and doubled each pair. This was a full table and things quickly escalated from my 1 red chip to $400 in front of me. These ploppies were not of redneck descent, and were flat betting about 50 all around aside from one fella betting blacks. I haven't had that much money out on the one hand before, and I was obviously nervous. But I was confident in my count and therefore had no issue buying in for more to complete my doubles. As hoped, the dealers 6 went to a 3 card bust and the entire table cheered for me as I "stuck it to the man." I quickly colored up and left the building.

    While I know these are much lower stakes stories than you all are used to, I just figured I'd keep you guys up to date with my progress as much of what I've learned has come from this site and CV. Everyone's input so far has been greatly appreciated and has not fallen on deaf ears. May the cards be ever in our favor.

    -Stevie

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    First a caveat that I never played Hilo but used counts that were all around stronger counts as I grew my BR. What you should keep in mind is there are 2 big milestones that really up your chances to not busting out. The first is getting a BR big enough to play 2 hands off the top. Spreading to two is a big red flag in many places. You can always drop to 1 hand or wong out if things head south. It ups your EV while lowering variance. That is a valuable combination of stat moves. I played 2 off the top before it was felt I had the BR for it. I was underfunded anyway so I figured my best shot of outrunning ruin by winning was to play 2 hands. Luckily I didn't regret it. Anyway you should run the stats but I think you will find it increases SCORE by around 45% for Hilo. Generally 73% of your one spot bet on each of 2 spots keeps RoR the same. This is usually rounded to 75% or the appropriate practical bet near that percentage.

    The other milestone is being able to play the better games offered at higher limits. You may find changes such as fewer decks, better pen, hand shuffled games, S17 versus H17, or LS. It may be one or more up to all of these things. That really increases your EV and your chance to outrun ruin with BR growth. Remember RoR is for a particular BR, bet ramp and rules/pen. It is a momentary snapshot for one point in time that assumes nothing in the list will ever change. Of course the assumption is wrong but that is how the statistic is generated. Basically your RoR is constantly changing and if possible should be monitored to stay within a range around your preferred RoR. The change in these factors that are available at higher minimum tables will make your optimal bets increase which increases EV on top of the increase in EV from the changes themselves without the change in optimal bet ramp.

    Your plan moving forward should make reaching these goals quickly a priority. That means growing your BR by not taking winnings to be spent on other things and adding to your BR with money earned aside from BJ.

    One last thing. Remember all those stats generated by the sims are based on rounds not time. While you are learning a slower game may be a better fit for you but eventually everything depends on game speed. Heads-up is best because it is usually the fastest game. This isn't always the case. You are looking to get in the most rounds in the least amount of time. If you exit after 1 or 2 max bet cycles heads up allows the most max bets to be made before exiting. That is another factor to consider. More players eat rounds and cards. In a good count they are eating both your advantage rounds and the good cards. In a bad count they are eating bad cards and disadvantage rounds. This would average out except you should be wonging out of most of the times crowded conditions are helpful. This extremely upsets the balance that tended to even things out. So crowding is generally bad for both game speed and quality of shoes played. The nice thing about shoe games is you get to make a lot of advantage bets in a row. You don't want that to be cut in half or way worse.
    Last edited by Three; 10-01-2016 at 12:06 PM.

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    Sounds like you've been having some positive variance, always good to hear. But I'd be careful about coloring up and leaving too early, while still having a nice advantage. Ideally, you wanna play through the +EV rounds as quickly as possible and then leave. But getting a split & 2x doubles, winning 4 bets, and then leaving, IMO isn't good. The +EV situations are rare....if you get to one, you wanna attack it. (Of course, there may be times when leaving in a +EV count is better to do with extreme heat....but with no heat or light heat, I'd keep plugging away.)
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Just stay away from Harrahs in Philly and Sands in Bethlehem and youll succeed. I would be at six figures by now if it wasnt for them. They stack the deck and rig the shufflers. They refuse to show the cards when asked. They never show them face up, not even when they change the cards. Stay far away.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LoneWoLF View Post
    They never show them face up, not even when they change the cards. Stay far away.
    it does not seemed right . The casino that i have played all showed/inspect both sides of cards when changing cards. It does seemed strange and out of the norm , but it does not mean i agree that they cheat.

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    You won those big bets you gave as successful incidents. You will also lose doing that and the glee you see on the faces around you that an arrogant show off doubled an Ace, 9 and lost will not be so pleasing. Not only does splitting 10's and doubling Ace,9 gets heat, it can often make the environment toxic on the table. You assume those folks left the table because you were changing the flow of the cards. Maybe they left because they were disgusted at the greed expressed.

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    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    The casino that i have played all showed/inspect both sides of cards when changing cards. It does seemed strange and out of the norm , but it does not mean i agree that they cheat.
    Same. The dealers at my main store have to sign off that they verified that all the cards are there when getting new cards. I see them go through each suit making sure there isn't any duplicates or missing cards. Then when the cards are retired, the dealers sit down and break the cards back down into decks and sign again to verify that all the cards are still there. It does seem odd that LW's store wouldn't inspect the decks before putting them into play. Perhaps they do it before the cards reach the pit. I find their deck changing procedures odd.

    Congrats Stevie on what sounds like a successful month.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix View Post
    It does seem odd that LW's store wouldn't inspect the decks before putting them into play.
    They show them when I play. They load the first shoe of cards in the shuffler and leave the rest face up on the table until a patron inspects them. The patron must stay for the washing for them to be inserted into the shuffler. The fact that LW gets different treatment shows he is getting heat. His play was either too obvious, too aggressive or both. They probably instruct the dealers to treat him differently. Lots of things for LW will be different because of his attitude of screw cover just be obvious and go for the highest EV possible. Countermeasures are being used that LW can't recognize because he never had a mentor to teach him the stuff nobody puts in books or talks about on the forums because the info is so valuable it needs to be guarded. LW thinks all casinos are the same and can't recognize the subtle differences that make big changes in your chances from casino to casino.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    They show them when I play. They load the first shoe of cards in the shuffler and leave the rest face up on the table until a patron inspects them. The patron must stay for the washing for them to be inserted into the shuffler. The fact that LW gets different treatment shows he is getting heat. His play was either too obvious, too aggressive or both. They probably instruct the dealers to treat him differently. Lots of things for LW will be different because of his attitude of screw cover just be obvious and go for the highest EV possible. Countermeasures are being used that LW can't recognize because he never had a mentor to teach him the stuff nobody puts in books or talks about on the forums because the info is so valuable it needs to be guarded. LW thinks all casinos are the same and can't recognize the subtle differences that make big changes in your chances from casino to casino.
    You're wrong once again. You play SP21, that's why they show it to you. I already talked to the pit boss and asked them why they dont fan the cards face up even when they change it, they said they only show the cards face up in spanish 21 games to see if there are any 10s in the pack mixed in. I suggest you stop assuming and actually learn what's going on. HARRAHS DOES NOT SHOW THEIR CARDS FACE UP IN REGULAR BLACKJACK GAMES!

    Now the reason, who the hell knows, but to me that's some sketchy processing going on. If i remember correctly, harrahs is going bankrupt, so maybe they're just cheating their way out and not giving a damn.

    Also how cna you assume im getting heat and assume im sitting at the table for 20 min to watch them change the cards. As you know im purely a backcounter at least 90% of the time, you actually think im gonna sit there for 20 minutes to watch them change it, or am i gonna be on the run to see which table is shuffling?

  10. #10
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    A different Harrah's property that I've watched switch out cards inspects them face up. If you're not going to stick around and watch them switch out cards, then why are you complaining about their procedure?

  11. #11


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    TThree, thanks for the input. For a bit I was opening with two hands. I'll definitely revisit the EV changes of doing so. It'll be a couple of years before I am able to move up to HL games and I've noticed the better rules. As for game speed, I find it oddly frustration playing at a slower or more full table, so I certainly plan to remain heads up if possible.

    LW, you've got to get this Harrahs is cheating you mentality under control. I understand it's frustrating, but it's becoming a thread derailer on almost every post here. My rotation includes a Harrahs property, and I've had no issues. Is that saying you aren't being cheated? No. Unless I'm there and witness it, who's to say? But if you are killing other shops, chalk harrahs up to the variance gods and bring down the others.

    Z, So because I made an aggressive play I'm arrogant and a show off? One of the first non-AP BS rules one is taught is that dealer 6 is his worst hand. Before learning what AP was, I didn't understand why doubling A9 wasn't the normal play against a 6 and assumed it would play the same as a 10v6. I've witness many A9 doubles vs 5-6 already. Heat aside, HiLo index play on A9 v 6 is double >4. It was the right play at the time as I had zero heat and at such low stakes they never once gave my $5 table a second glance. And they left the table, pissed off in that I messed up the "flow" and would continue to do so. But greed and arrogance are the farthest from my personality as it gets. But I appreciate the advice and quick judgement.

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    YW. You understand optimal # of hands has little effect heads up. I prefer 2 but it is a matter of preference. With others it is 2 with an advantage and one hand when you are at a disadvantage. Playing 2 off the top costs minimally but prevents heat that may be generated from spreading to 2. It is your call to spread to 2 with an advantage or play 2 off the top. The former is optimal but may make you easier to spot. Since you were already spreading to 2 at a bigger advantage the gain will not be as much as I stated as the gain from going from 1 hand all the time to 2 hands all the time.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    YW. You understand optimal # of hands has little effect heads up. I prefer 2 but it is a matter of preference. With others it is 2 with an advantage and one hand when you are at a disadvantage. Playing 2 off the top costs minimally but prevents heat that may be generated from spreading to 2. It is your call to spread to 2 with an advantage or play 2 off the top. The former is optimal but may make you easier to spot. Since you were already spreading to 2 at a bigger advantage the gain will not be as much as I stated as the gain from going from 1 hand all the time to 2 hands all the time.
    I was at a casino on Saturday night, played 4 hours, was down $1400. I read Tthree's post. On Sunday morning, I started playing 2 hands and started winning. I know variance. However, I started experimenting a bit as the casino was crowded and bigger bettors had the pit's attention elsewhere. I started with 2 hands, started with one and moved to 2 at positive counts (did piss of some ploppies), dropped to one or simply played the entire deck with 2 hands.

    I noticed that the 2 hands approach all the times seemed to work better as even at negative counts, often I would lose one bet, win the other and because more cards were being used up.

    I remember reading a post on the archives of another site where someone stated that two hands all the time is the best approach. I wonder if their are studies that show which is better, whether its both hands throughout or dropping to one hand at negative counts.

    By the way, the two hands approach helped because my two day trip netted $1700, Being down $1400 and ending up with being up $1700 was wonderful. A total of 18 hours played at wto casinos.

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