Is it still worth traveling to play Blackjack?

[Three]

A sim is a long run snapshot. You will likely play for a couple hours at a time in the casino and only a shoe or 2 when you make your max bet. Just think about what affects the number of max bets you get to make in that 1 or 2 opportunities and the number of rounds you get to play in the time you are there. That is a good start to understanding how to find a strategy to make winning on any visit more certain. If the game has great pen but you don't get many hands in during a couple hours of play and you get 1/3rd to half the max bets out when the opportunity(s) that may cut your session short arise. And what percentage of the good cards are you likely to get given varying conditions. Then you try to increase the likelihood you will have the best chance of winning by using casino procedures and player tendencies at that casino to help define when you are likely to get them. This is where scouting comes in. You don't just show up whenever you want and play for a couple hours. You do your best to make sure the quality of those hours are highest. Getting in 500 rounds while getting 3 times more max bets per opportunity and getting twice the good cards per max bet opportunity at a poor game is far more desirable than getting in 120 rounds in the same time while getting in 1/3rd the max bets and 1/2 as many of the good cards. If you can't find good conditions at a great game it isn't worth as much. If you can set your watch by when good conditions will exist for a while at a poor game it is worth a lot more. Rules are pretty standard where I play so a great game and poor game is talking primarily about differences in pen.

As an AP the move is to get in and get out with the money while exposing yourself the least. Computer sims don't take this into account at all. The sim can be used to do this but you must think about how actual casino play interacts with sim results.

[seriousplayer]

They tried to explain why I needed to leave but it wasn't until I found some of the best looking games hard to beat and poor games a gold mine that I examined the differences between playing the various casinos.

Why is the poor games easier to beat? Is it because of variance?

[Three]

Why is the poor games easier to beat? Is it because of variance?

The statement is not a general statement. It is a statement about casino specific conditions, not pen or rules. If you can get the good conditions at a great game you have a honey hole. Unfortunately that can be hard to find. You are then tasked to find the best condition windows of opportunity based on scouting at great games and the often better conditions at poorer games. EV is not about win rate per 100. That is what a sim will tell you. It is about win rate per hour and getting the highest quality sessions you can for the limited time you should be playing. The sim gives you win rate per 100. You know you will leave after 1 or 2 max bet cycles. You want those cycles to get the most bets out and have you getting the highest percentage of the cards being dealt. You have to think about the interaction between the sim results and the conditions you are considering facing. Remember your results become more certain when you play more rounds. The higher the percentage of max bets you get out when the opportunity presents itself the higher your EV/round (remember you don't have to play bad counts) but that comes with an increase in volatility. You combat volatility with getting in more rounds. There is no way to totally avoid ass kickings but getting in more rounds ups the odds that things will go well for you. That is why we talk about n0.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I will add the following:

Many casinos offer great table conditions because they trust their floor staff and surveillance.

Many casinos offer lousy table conditions because they have poor abilities to skill check us.

[seriousplayer]

The statement is not a general statement. It is a statement about casino specific conditions, not pen or rules. If you can get the good conditions at a great game you have a honey hole. Unfortunately that can be hard to find. You are then tasked to find the best condition windows of opportunity based on scouting at great games and the often better conditions at poorer games. EV is not about win rate per 100. That is what a sim will tell you. It is about win rate per hour and getting the highest quality sessions you can for the limited time you should be playing. The sim gives you win rate per 100. You know you will leave after 1 or 2 max bet cycles. You want those cycles to get the most bets out and have you getting the highest percentage of the cards being dealt. You have to think about the interaction between the sim results and the conditions you are considering facing. Remember your results become more certain when you play more rounds. The higher the percentage of max bets you get out when the opportunity presents itself the higher your EV/round (remember you don't have to play bad counts) but that comes with an increase in volatility. You combat volatility with getting in more rounds. There is no way to totally avoid ass kickings but getting in more rounds ups the odds that things will go well for you. That is why we talk about n0.

The whole thing boils down to bad casino condition at great games and good casino condition on poorer games. Now I see where you are coming from.

[Ryemo]

The problem with traveling is this; what happens when you hit a monster losing streak + all the expenses? Traveling on a low to moderate bankroll could make someone go bust. Especially if harrahs is in the rotation.

Then when you travel, try to find destinations that you can drive to at first. If you don't have room comps, you can easily find rooms for $50/night or less. Find some good DD games you can camp out. If your top bet is anywhere in the range of 2x200 to 2x300, you could probably gain $150 to $200/hr in EV (assuming good pen, fast dealers, and favorable rules). If you find really good conditions, you might even be able to squeeze out $250/hr or more.

And your comments about Harrah's is incorrect. There's two Harrah's properties in my rotation that I crushed this year. The other Harrah's properties that I've played this year, I'm slightly in the black as well...

As far as rated play goes... that's a personal decision. There are some places I play rated and some places that I don't. Depends on specific store, market, casino ownership, etc. After doing some rough calculations though, I will have made/saved about $8K this year from rated play (from free play, free food, free rooms, etc.). Just to be clear, I DO NOT count the face value of my food or room comps either. I assess the amount of money I saved based on what I would have spent outside of the casino, assuming I didn't have my rooms or food comped.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"Find some good DD games you can camp out."

If you "camp out" surveillance will designate you a "headstone"

especially if you are attempting to playing anonymously.

This can only partially compensated for by small frequent

tokes when the pit critter is watching.

[Ryemo]

If you "camp out" surveillance will designate you a "headstone"

especially if you are attempting to playing anonymously.

This can only partially compensated for by small frequent

tokes when the pit critter is watching.

You'd be surprised what you can get away with at some places. I'm not saying that you'll last forever using this approach, but there are certainly some good DD games out there that you can camp for hours at a time. Some may require playing rated and some don't. But for someone who is working off a smaller BR, this might be a good option; simply because the EV will substantially higher and the N0 significantly lower. The quicker you get in the "long run" then the more you can afford to travel and play shoe games exclusively.

Traveling around on a $20K BR with no casino comps and playing shoes exclusively can be a riskier venture and much more of a grind. Think about it like this; the N0 on a good 6D game will be around 20k rounds (give or take a few thousand rounds), as opposed to a good DD game, which may yield an N0 around 8K (roughly). It also depends on your spread, pen, rules, and conditions of course. There's plenty of DD games that I've camped that yielded an N0 of 6K rounds. In the beginning, I truly believe it's all about BR survival. Once your BR grows large enough, you have a lot more options.

[Three]

The problem with traveling is this; what happens when you hit a monster losing streak + all the expenses? Traveling on a low to moderate bankroll could make someone go bust. Especially if harrahs is in the rotation.

The casinos pay all my expenses and then some. Sometimes and then a lot.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Yeah casinos pay my airfare, suites, r f b, etc. most of the time.

so I travel extensively, to understate the case.

BUT ... in reference to this thread ~ Longevity trumps all.

[Zaal]

As an AP the move is to get in and get out with the money while exposing yourself the least. Computer sims don't take this into account at all. The sim can be used to do this but you must think about how actual casino play interacts with sim results.

This really resonates with me as there's so much outside of keeping count and managing your bets that can cause an AP grief. I'm no where near at the level of dealing with these outside factors that I need to be but I'm trying.

[LoneWoLF]

You really need to read my post I told you was important for you to see why each casino is different and why winning in a casino is far different than winning on a computer. I didn't want to give the casinos a way to make it harder to win so it was necessarily vague. The information was there to figure it out. Some of the best looking games have been the hardest to beat. Other crappy looking games have been easy. Sims would tell you different but actual casino play is different than the typical sim. Many factors that aren't simulated can be very important to the likelihood of success even though they may not seem to be. By know I think your alienating any possibility of a mentor teaching you these very, very important parts of success to be almost nil. That means you have to figure it out for yourself.

I was dragged out of places I was getting my ass kicked at by my mentors. They tried to explain why I needed to leave but it wasn't until I found some of the best looking games hard to beat and poor games a gold mine that I examined the differences between playing the various casinos. Then it became clear why I was not winning much at the great looking games and doing extremely well at some of the poor looking ones. Until you figure it out you are doomed to only win were you coincidentally have what you need. If you can't learn just play the casinos you win at. You don't understand why you are losing at better games so you can't change what you do to win. The solution is obvious, just don't play the casinos you are constantly losing at, since you don't understand why you are losing which would tell you how to win. Many other AP's make lots of money at the casinos you lose at. That should tell you enough to start down the road to understanding or simply stop playing them and limit your potential as an AP.

The reason your advice is irrelevant is because I already do everything I can to maximize my ability to extract money from each casino. I wong in and out aggressively, avoid anything lower than -1, i backcount 95% of the time, i leave table while backcounting at optimal points such as -1 to maximize my ability to get certain number of tables per hour to backcount etc. I avoid backcounting full tables, and backcount only 2-3 max spots per table so i can jump in always with two hands. Harrahs is just like everywhere else where i win in terms of conditions so you're already wrong on that. Face it, it's just horrible luck. There's nothing else i can do. I started losing when it was 6 decks as well and my deck estimation is much better with 6 deck games than 8, so the deck estimation is bs. And now they even have regular sized 6 deck trays and still got hammered.

[Three]

Face it, it's just horrible luck. There's nothing else i can do. I started losing when it was 6 decks as well and my deck estimation is much better with 6 deck games than 8, so the deck estimation is bs. And now they even have regular sized 6 deck trays and still got hammered.

The post I suggested you read had nothing to do with deck estimation. You need to learn the difference between actual casino play and computer play. You said it can't be luck. You said you are always perfect and never make a mistake. Others have no trouble beating these casinos. Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. I listed what wasn't eliminated by you (mistakes and variance) and by others results (cheating). The truth lies in the post. You seem to want to pay a much higher cost than necessary to learn anything and insist on learning everything the hard way. That is no way to go through life.