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Thread: More indexes more scrutiny, no?

  1. #1


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    More indexes more scrutiny, no?

    I made a separate post of this. On this forum, two topics are often discussed. One is heat and avoiding it and the other is the increased benefits of learning more indexes beyond the I-18. My question then is whether one leads to the other,mwhether playing with more indexes leads to more heat?

    Would it not seem strange for a person to make different decisions when faced with the same cards each time? One time you take insurance, another time you don't, one time you hit your 15 against a 10, another time you don't, one time you stand on a 14 against a 10 and another time you hit a 16 against the same 10.

    i would think using more indexes leads to more playing variations and this leads to more differences than the average ploppy an AP is trying to appear like and thus more heat, less longevity etc.

    is this not a factor when we analyze benefits of more indexes?

  2. #2


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    Potentially yes. The more departures you are making from basic strategy and the variations within a particular play, the more noticeable it is. Departures with a big spread and wonging and you can be picked off by someone experienced. A lot of it is knowing the casino and how other ploppies play. Try to fit in!

    When the count is in the tank and you have a min bet out, you can make the same departures as when you have a big bet out for cover purposes. Take insurance when you have 20 with a low bet out as some cover. By replacing the obvious trap indices (splitting 10's v 5,6) with doubling 8 vs 5,6 you get about 40% of the lost value back in 2D. You could also replace the hitting 12 v 5,6 with some soft double down hands and you have a set of indices that are almost as valuable as the original I18 and brings less heat from the pit and less confrontation with the ploppies.

    Don goes over these concepts in BJA3, notably pages 207, 208 and 374,375 (catch 22 discussion). I'm sure Don discusses it in other areas as well.
    Last edited by gutshot; 09-28-2016 at 09:29 AM.

  3. #3


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    That is an interesting way of looking at it. I always assumed that the playing variations helped me with cover. I suppose it depends upon your act. The variations in play go along with my desire to look like like I am going with "my gut" or trying something crazy in order to "mix up the cards." When I sit down with others who tell me that they don't care what I do as long as I do it consistently, I just smile and make a crazy play when the count goes up. Of course, I never play for more than 45 minutes to an hour at most, so it is difficult to pick off the 16 vs. 10, etc. differences.

  4. #4


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    Other arguments/justifications to go with your act:

    It's more fun to mix things up by playing the same hand different ways. Doing the same thing each time is boring, and there are slot machines for that.

    You need to mix things up to have a chance to win. Otherwise, the house just grinds you down.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat View Post
    You need to mix things up to have a chance to win. Otherwise, the house just grinds you down.
    I like that quote - it just might work if someone calls you out on inconsistent play. Makes no sense so it sounds like perfect ploppy logic...

  6. #6


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    The notion of "mixing it up" may or may not work, and for two different reasons. First, departures per hour is a vastly overrated concept. People write about the advanced counts with 100 indices as if an opportunity for a departure comes down the pike every other hand. Nothing could be further from the truth. You can play for an entire hour and make maybe one departure. And, it will be the exception and not the rule that, for any given hour of play, you will actually get to play the same hand two different ways, to show how you like to "mix it up." Clearly, 16 vs. 10 will be the most likely candidate.

    Finally, understand that whether you say anything to the pit boss or not, and whether he even sees your departures, ultimately, it's the EITS that gets you. No one can hear anything up there; all they can do is see how you're playing the hands and how the plays correlate with the count, which, in turn, is what can get you in trouble.

    So, I think the jury is still out on whether using more departures helps to make you look less skillful or more. Sure, a good act is crucial, but in the end, I've never been able to play the role of the idiot at a blackjack table, so I don't even try. And, of course, that can be a problem, because, if I do something, it's not because I'm dumb, but because it's the right thing to do.

    As with all these things, YMMV.

    Don

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post

    As with all these things, YMMV.

    Don
    Exactly. It all depends on which casino you're in, which casino employee is on shift, etc.

    Don is right though. The EITS has no ears, only sight. But... if the EITS is sleeping on the job, a good act could POSSIBLY prevent the pit from making a call upstairs. But again... assuming your betting level passes the casino's comfort-threshold, then a call will be made anyway, no matter how good your act is. That's why one of the most important aspects to advantage play is to search for tolerance.

  8. #8


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    Playing BS can bring scrutiny as well. Try hitting a 12 v 2 at third base.

    I think everyone knows HiLo Ill 18 departures, so if that's what you're doing, it's a big tell. I sometimes think MORE indices make you look more like a gambler. But, the best cover--hit it and quit it. Don't give them time to analyze hours of your play.

    ***I love my dad, but have to share a story. We're in Vegas, playing green chips at Bellagio. Dad is getting killed playing basic strategy. He decided to stand on all stiffs, and won like none other. He's not a counter, and in that moment he decided basic strategy cards were invented by the casino to make more money. I tried to explain to him later that the count was so high he was playing correctly, but to this day he doesn't believe me. Moral of the story--ploppies make playing departure all the time for whatever reason.



    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  9. #9


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    The most important index is insurance. The decision occurs every 13 hands on average and more often when we bet large. This is the only index play that I know has resulted in heat and back offs for me. If the pit is going to call EITS it's more likely for insurance or 16 v 10.

    As long as you're not splitting 10's or hitting hard 17, I wouldn't worry about scrutiny for more obscure index plays.

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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Ho hum.

    moses has maintained his absurd position for years.



  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    "If I have two 20s, the count will still be even or positive.
    The count can't go negative unless you are getting extreme deep pen."
    W. T. F. ?

    I swear that the above makes no sense to me.

  12. #12
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    1D is greatly different than shoe games, that's what Moses is referencing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mofungoo View Post
    1D is greatly different than shoe games, that's what Moses is referencing.
    Most of what Moses says is only true in games that very few people play. He only plays single deck. Even double deck is different enough that his comments aren't a good fit.

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