Option of playing 14 versus 5

[20 to 1 Spread]

Dealer made a mistake. I had the option to play or not to play my hand of 14 versus their 5.
If the 5 busts around 40%, I should not be playing.

However does the math change, at TC-4? At what count does this become profitable for me to keep and just pray dealer bust.
Or never?

I wasn't sure so I just declined it. However I said yes to my other hand (she didnt notice I moved to two hands and only dealt me one). Unfortunately she dealt me a 14-15 or something and I lost!

[Phoebe]

14 vs 5 isn't here but by instinct and analogy I would not have played.

For instance 12 vs 5 need TC+10 to break even.
Of course 14 vs 5 could be different but I doubt because usually 14 is worse than 12.

[Gronbog]

The EV of 14 vs 5 when standing increases with the true count for HiLo, becoming +EV at about +8, depending on the rules and conditions.
The EV of 14 vs 5 when hitting increases as the true count drops, but not enough to ever reach +EV.

[Phoebe]

Where do you found +8 ?

[Dog Hand]

Where do you found +8 ?

Philippe B,

If you look at the "Bust Rate" figure in this post, you'll see that the dealer 5-upcard busts 50% of the time at a HiLo TC of +9.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[Gronbog]

Where do you found +8 ?

My own sim results of a 6 deck S17 game.

[stopgambling]

Look at scavenger plays by james grosjean . i just go by the easy ones .I have not remember all the situations.

[Phoebe]

If you look at the "Bust Rate" figure in this post, you'll see that the dealer 5-upcard busts 50% of the time at a HiLo TC of +9.

Thanks. Very interesting.

My own sim results of a 6 deck S17 game.

From CVData ? If yes how do you do ? Even with "Full report", CVIndex give me only EV from -14 to +2

[20 to 1 Spread]

Curious. If you instead have a 10. And the dealer shows a 10.

At what TC would you need to play the hand?
My thought process is, dealer cant make 21 easily anymore. You can spike an Ace with a double down in TC-4+.

Or do we never play the hand in this situation since we're playing to chop a lot of the times and when we miss, we're gonna die?

[DSchles]

Can someone translate this for me, please?

Don

[Gronbog]

From CVData ? If yes how do you do ? Even with "Full report", CVIndex give me only EV from -14 to +2

From my own simulator.

[Gronbog]

Curious. If you instead have a 10. And the dealer shows a 10.

At what TC would you need to play the hand?

For a 6 deck game (H17 or S17 doesn't matter here), using HiLo, hitting this hand is +EV at TC >= -5. Once the TC reaches the H/D index at +4, you should double.

[20 to 1 Spread]

For a 6 deck game (H17 or S17 doesn't matter here), using HiLo, hitting this hand is +EV at TC >= -5. Once the TC reaches the H/D index at +4, you should double.

No I meant, in the situation of whether or not we want to play this hand or not.
Dealer misdeals, we have the option of keeping our 10 versus a dealer's up card of a 10.
Do we want to be put in this situation?

Is there every a TC where we say, yes we want to play our hand of 10 versus dealers 10.