Wondering what's the edge betting dealer has a T hole card being paid 2-1 when count is +6 or better using Zen II?
You don't have an edge in SP21. Kat wrote you could play a lifetime and never see a true advantage insurance bet. It wasn't an exaggeration. I wouldn't quote my fuzzy memory numbers but when simmed the number of times you have an advantage with the insurance bet is something like 0.00001% of the time the dealer has an ace up. Don't trust my fuzzy memory. Look at the stats.Originally Posted by Jabberwocky
In an 8 deck shoe there are 3 T's for 12 ranks or 96 T's in 384 cards with 288 non T's. You would need to remove 96 non-tens (1/3rd of all the non-tens) to get insurance to be an even money proposition. For each T you removed in the process you would need to remove 2 additional non-tens. To get insurance to be a plus EV just think about what the count would need to be. If the count is ace reckoned it would need to be even higher. If you used a perfect insurance count with each T tagged -3 and each non-T tagged +1 removing 96 non-tens without removing a T would leave exactly 6 decks left and RC of +96 for a TC of exactly +16. Think about that.
Of course insurance would become 0 EV bet far more frequently. Instead of having 96 multiplications of between 3/4 and 2/3 you would only have 24. You start with 24 T's and 72 non-tens. You would need to remove 24 non-tens (1/4 of the cards being used) leaving 48 non-tens without removing a T just to make the insurance edge 0. That would leave 1.5 decks remaining and a RC of +24 for the perfect insurance count for a TC of +16. To get an idea of the odds that this will happen you start with a 3/4 chance of drawing a non-ten. By the time you draw out the 24th non-ten the odds are about 2/3 chance of drawing a non-ten.
The actual odds are:
72/96*71/95*70/94*69/93*68/92*67/91*66/90*65/89*64/88*63/87*62/86*61/85*60/84*59/83*58/82*57/81*56/80*55/79*54/78*53/77*52/76*51/75*50/74*49/73 = 0.0003045. which is 1 in about every 3,284 times off the top of the deck. To get a general idea of the 96 multiples for the same calculation for 8 decks we can take this to the 4th power and get 0.0000000000008597. Or less than 1 in every 100,000,000,000 times (less than 1 in every 100 billion times).
Of course there are other ways to get to +16 TC than just removing that many non-tens in a row (removing 1/3rd of all the non-face cards) but it is impossible to get to 0 EV insurance until you remove at least 1/4 of the cards being used. And for every face card removed you must remove 2 additional non-faces. I am not sure how deeply dealt a DD game of SP21 is because the fewest decks I am aware of being used is a 5 deck game. That is very rare. The H17 version typically deals 6 decks and the S17 version 8 decks.
Yesterday I got dealt two 20s on two maxbets against a dealer ace and the TC was about +10.
Of course she got a blackjack.
I really thought about insuring. But then I thought, the last time I did that in similar conditions, the dealer didn't get blackjack but drew to 21 (after getting to hard 16).
I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!
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