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Thread: A different way to look at money management

  1. #1


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    A different way to look at money management

    I'd like to suggest that for a recreational counter, like myself, looking at money management in a somewhat non-conventional fashion may be useful. Traditionally, a counter might choose a bankroll based on how much he could lose without feeling devastated. Then, based on this bankroll and a chosen risk of ruin, he can calculate a bet spread and see what his long-term EV would be. I think there is great utility in looking at things in exactly the opposite direction as my example below demonstrates.

    As a recreational green-chip counter with one year of counting under my belt, I'm trying to determine if this counting thing is worth it for me to pursue. I've only made about $1,300 after 100 hours in my first year which I don't consider worth it ($13/hr). Should I continue? Here's my analysis. For me, I could see myself counting for another 15 years and I'd like to average at least $100 per hour. I would consider anything under $50/hr as a bust and anything over $100/hr as gravy. I then looked at CVCX for the game I play to determine what bankroll I would need to accomplish this goal. It turns out that if I play two hands and spread from $30 to $360 (Wonging out at -2), I can expect an hourly win rate of $129/hr. I chose a number above $100 because I think it will be difficult/impossible to achieve the same results as the sim in real life, mostly due to cover play. If I play around with bankroll, I find that a 40K bankroll gives me a 3.5% ROR. Furthermore, if I look at my chances to accomplish my long-term goals, I find that after 15 years (1500 hours) I have a 95.89% chance of being up 75K ($50/hr) and a 73.71% chance of being up $150K ($100/hr). Even if these numbers are overly optimistic (which I'm sure they are), they give me confidence that I can achieve my goals. Assumptions: 100 hands/hr, 6D H17 DAS LS, 3players, 78% pen HiLo with 50 indices WI @ shuffle, WO at -2.

    So now the question is, am I willing to double my bankroll commitment to make this venture worthwhile in the long run (in year 1, I was only willing to commit 20K to my BR)? Also, can I play 100 hours per year at my two local stores at these levels without getting backed off?

  2. #2


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    What's your bankroll right now. With 1 year under your belt, it's really not clear how seasoned you are. It appears that you floated your bankroll. So, I would be reluctant to float further funds since I don't know how sound your business plan us when analyzed against your level of expertise.

    In other words, go slow and earn your bankroll. I guarantee that substantial bankrolls have been built off small amounts of seed money. Consider the current low EV as an education cost which will pay future dividends, provided the skill level us there.

    As for backoffs, I don't know your local stores or your level f comportment. Frankly, considering the current law earnings, I wouldn't worry about it. It does appear also, that you are using some siftware such as CVCX. Keep referring to that and keep your eyes open to other scenarios.

  3. #3


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    Thanks for the reply Freightman. I allotted 20K for my bankroll in year one. I could definitely afford a much larger bankroll but chose to start small until I felt more experienced. Basically, I think I've been doing exactly what you recommend (low EV to start is the cost of education). I've spent many hours on CVBJ and CVCX. I'll admit that in all my hours in the casino, I have never recognized "another scenario". I assume you mean hole carding, shuffle tracking or other advantage plays? I have never once seen a hole card. I briefly looked into shuffle tracking but concluded it was far too difficult to master to be worth investing my limited time to try to learn. Basically, I'm just a straight counter with no other bells or whistles.

  4. #4


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    So, if I understand, firstly, you are playing off the top with a 30-360 spread with Wong out at -2. Your below par results may be nothing more than a small sampling. It could also be indicative of a deeper issue. Do you know any other competent counters that can audit your game. Look for leaks and or flaws in your approach.

    I wouldn't put any more money into the experiment at this time. You are not playing with chump change. By other scenarios, I'm simply referring to good games. Learn the craft first.

  5. #5


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    Looks like you understand the math/CVCX/sims well enough. But I wouldn't spread $30-$360, using red chips, as that'll slow the hell out of your game. $25-$300 would be better.

    No idea about your local stores. Depends what they are. But 1 hour a week at a casino should be doable, especially if you can play on 2 different shifts (swing one week, day the next week).

    Be careful about CVCX sims, at least with Wong-in/Wong-out stuff, as that'll change your rounds/hour as well as EV & variance per hour. If your sim says 100 rounds per hour but you're only observing 60 rounds per hour IRL, then that $100/hour is more like $60/hour.....then throw in cover/mistakes/down-time/etc. and even expenses and it could be much lower.


    I would continue with caution, i.e.: keep doing what you're doing. But I wouldn't quit my job or move to LV or do whatever other stuff people wanna do after 6-12 months experience (I don't think you mentioned this stuff, just throwing it out there).
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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