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Thread: Tracking EV

  1. #1


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    Tracking EV

    Im posting this to get other people's thoughts on how they track their EV. Im looking for a better way to track my EV so it can be as precise as possible. I have heard of Steath tracking how many positive shoes his team played, but this seems hard to do, unless he has some sort of tip of how to keep track of all these shoes in a convenient way.

    What I have been doing is just tracking the hours from when I get to a store and when i leave the store. This is obviously not that accurate, due to all the time walking around from table to table and people buying in and confusing side bet payoffs or spilled drinks etc. What Im thinking of doing though is buying a stopwatch for my wrist and every single time I backcount or join a table and play ill start the timer and whenever someone buys in ill stop it and resume it again once dealer is ready to deal. Whenever I am walking table to table trying to find a shoe to backcount, ill stop the timer and start it when a fresh deal begins. I wont do it every single second of downtime though, such as at the end of each round where dealer does payoffs and collects the cards as that's just way too much to be worried about, but nonetheless this seems to be a decent strategy. With this being said, ill be tracking the hours while 'assuming' 100 rds an hour.

    This strategy to track EV to me seems to be the most convenient and and practical way. In regards to keeping track of every shoe, I guess it's possible if you just keep a tally on a notepad on your phone after every shoe you play, but i dont know that doesn't seem very convenient and practical. By doing my strategy of assuming 100 rds an hour and buying a stopwatch for your wrist, it lets you easily stop/start the timer anytime theres downtime such as walking from table to table or when people buy in or a confusing side bet payoff or spilled drink etc.

    What do you guys think? Im really trying to get serious about where my EV really should be. I probably been overestimating my EV to date. Maybe being at only +10k since last july with the hours i played probably is roughly where i should be. I still think im way under EV even if i put conservative numbers in CVCX so i dont know, but I really want to start tracking my EV more accurately. So please post any ideas or what you guys do to track your EV.

  2. #2


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    I used to be a lot of detailed records. After all these years, I know what's going to happen.

    Don't micromanage. I didn't do it in business - I no longer do it at blackjack. Don't think EITS can't figure out what you're doing, if they want to, by recording those shoe results after every shoe. Key your eye on the ball. Don't distract yourself with admin.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LoneWoLF View Post
    By doing my strategy of assuming 100 rds an hour and buying a stopwatch for your wrist, it lets you easily stop/start the timer anytime theres downtime such as walking from table to table or when people buy in or a confusing side bet payoff or spilled drink etc.

    What do you guys think?
    I think that is a terrible way to track EV. First, it is about rounds not hours. Ploppy tables with side bets never hit 100 rounds per hour and then you have Don's 6 round lag each time you switch to a new table. He has the backcounter observing 8 different tables an hour. That lag is 42 rounds per hour. So even if the tables you observe are going at 100 rounds per hour the perfect backcounter is only averaging observing 58 rounds per hour. If the games observed are even slower then he observes correspondingly fewer rounds per hour. The way you are trying to figure rounds observed for a backcounter will be way off. So your EV will be garbage in garbage out. Your EV is probably about half of what you have been believing it to be with your approach. Read the sections in BJA on backcounting. When you get to the part about the lag in hands observed while you switch tables you will start to understand. I am sure Don can chime in if he wants with the exact pages of the most interest.

  4. #4


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    I've only been doing this a year but I try to keep very good records to see how I'm doing. Here's what I do:
    When I finish a session, I write down how long I was there, my planned bet spread, my actual min and max bets, how much I won or lost, and I try to estimate how many rounds I played. This last part is the hardest. Often times I'll estimate based on how fast or slow it felt but more often I'll try to remember exactly how many shoes I played and with how many other players. If I played 1 full 4.5/6D shoe with 3 other players then I figure that each player (and the dealer) played an average of 2.7 cards per round. So 4.5*52= 234 cards/5 players (me, dealer and 3 others) = 47 cards for me / 2.7 cards/rnd = 17 rounds for me in that shoe. If I wonged out after 3 decks then it would be 3*52 = 156/5 =31/2.7 = 12 rounds and so forth. I also track my tips and my car costs. After 100 hours, I'm averaging about 70 rounds per hour. For longevity reasons, I only backcount occasionally but I usually Wong out at -2. T3's recent posts have convinced me that I need to be more aggressive in playing more hands per hour (less crowded tables) and I hope to get up to at least 100 rounds per hour.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by LoneWoLF View Post
    What do you guys think? Im really trying to get serious about where my EV really should be. I probably been overestimating my EV to date.
    I built a tracking system that uses the frequency, win loss and standard deviation for each game that I may want to play. This data was sourced from CVCX. This needs to be done for the count system and index set you are using. My system has over 650 games definitions representing about 5 counting systems.

    Then I track the following data for a session:

    Date/Time
    Actual Results
    Game played (example: 6D H17 das sr and this is selected from a library of games I have created.
    Bet ramp (defined library of bet ramps by unit)
    Unit $
    Spots played
    Rounds (optionally report shoes and system will calculate estimated rounds)
    Casino (system tracks sessions and win/loss numbers by casino)

    With this information, I can construct a comparison model of the game and its EV along with SD and other data used for analysis. This data is also used to create cumulative data with the ability to evaluate from various cross sections.

    Data collection is somewhat onerous but with shortcut methods for in casino reporting using Groupme messaging APP, it works well.

    It is my stated opinion that there is much to be learned about your (or others) game by following, understanding and analyzing the performance data.

    Because the CVCX models assume perfect play, the use of your actual session and number of rounds at the bet ramp using this system will generally overstate your EV because we don't play perfectly. Even so, I believe it is more accurate than any other method I have seen.
    Last edited by Stealth; 09-12-2016 at 09:22 PM.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  6. #6


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    I estimate rounds per hour for the various games I play based on how many players on average were at the table, type of game and dealer speed. So for instance, If I was playing for 1 and 1/2 hours at my favorite DD game and there were 3 players on average during the session, then I know I got about 115 rounds for that session, calculated as follows: 1.5 hours x 90/rounds per hour x 85% (due to wonging out).

    Then I determine my average bet based on the bet spread employed - you can get this number from a CVCX sim.

    I use 1% for my expected win rate. It sims higher than that, but I drop the estimate to 1% to account for tipping and errors (probably eats about 20% of EV).

    So EV = rounds played x average bet x 1%.

    I also note the standard deviation for the session based on CVCX sims for the game and spread employed. So I can compute z-score for any session or cumulatively.

  7. #7


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    You guys take he fun out of BJ. Why not just believe in the math, play knowing that you will win in the long run and stop making a fun game into work. If you gotta keep records, just keep notes on casinos, dealers and penn.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    You guys take he fun out of BJ. Why not just believe in the math, play knowing that you will win in the long run and stop making a fun game into work. If you gotta keep records, just keep notes on casinos, dealers and penn.
    Pros dont play for fun and they keep records if not very detailed records. You are simply showing your ignorance. At the very least, you should be recording the wins and losses after each session in a store. Tracking EV/hours isnt just about knowing how much you won or lost, but knowing which hours you were at a particular store, so you know when you can attack it next so you're not always going on the same shift, etc and thereby letting you playing longer with less heat. If you're not keeping records, you're simply just a recreational player if not just a degenerate gambler, because you'll never know how you're really doing throughout the year; unless of course you have a set bankroll in cash inside your house and never take out of it for any expenses other than playing blackjack and you can simply calculate what your starting bankroll was from the beginning.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by LoneWoLF View Post
    Tracking EV/hours isnt just about knowing how much you won or lost, but knowing which hours you were at a particular store, so you know when you can attack it next so you're not always going on the same shift, etc and thereby letting you playing longer with less heat.
    I am thinking I am keeping records to know when to be there to get the best conditions so I don't have to play as long to make the same EV thereby increasing longevity. I can make the same EV in a couple hours that I can make in 8 at poor conditions. If I were to try to play more hours by playing shifts with poor conditions I would be getting a BIG hourly pay cut. Then I would have to play a lot more hours to make the same amount of money which would increase my exposure at the casino and decrease longevity. I think what you aren't getting about this is you want to play short sessions and win tolerable amounts. If you want those tolerable amounts to be just under tolerance with fewer loses you need to play good conditions that allow you to get enough rounds in during that short session to get closer to long run results. I believe you are better off not playing just to get in more hours at the same place. The idea is to get as many quality hours as you can. These are your high profit hours. They have a higher degree of certainty because you play so many more rounds in the same amount of time. They have higher EV for the same reason. If you keep good records you will soon see that some games you thought were the best because of rules and pen are not when the game slows too much. What your records will indicate is a much lower EV and more random results due to the small number of rounds in each session.

    I keep forgetting you are trying to be a backcounter rather than what gets most of the EV and a whole lot less heat. You should really read BJA3, Chapter 13, "New Answers To Old Questions" very slowly, while ruminating on all that is written. Just summarizing the graphs at the end for Pa rules the White Rabbit earns more than the backcounter with no lag between shoes at typical pen by 0.7%. At great pen the backcounter by 0.52%. Now with the the 6 round lag the backcounter does a little better, 4% at standard pen and 4.72% at great pen. Now aren't you one who keeps saying 15% gain isn't worth it even when it reduces heat and increases longevity by breaking the correlation between bets and plays. But for hardly any gain backcounting over White Rabbit you want to assure lots of backoffs and decreased longevity. Do you see that not only are you are talking out of both sides of your mouth, which is bad enough, you argue the weak argument in both cases. If the gain is worth it you should also opt for the larger gain with more longevity rather than decide the the minimal gain is worth it but 3 to 15 times the gain is not even though the minimal gain will severely decrease longevity while the big gain will increase longevity.

    I recommend rereading each chapter of BJA3 individually very slowly while thinking about everything Don wrote. Then before going on think about all the aspects of what was discussed in the chapter and how to use it to increase both EV and longevity in the casino. Then go try to implement it in play before rereading the next chapter you choose to reread. You seem to have read the chapters too quickly to understand how to use the information to maximize the desired combination of EV and longevity. You have often written that you don't care about longevity. If that is true why are you trying to play crappy conditions during different shifts you may want to avoid because of what your scouting tells you? It seems you are trying to mimic what posters you decided to idolize have written rather than understand why their approach works so you can modify it and apply it to different scenarios than the poster faces that you face. You could really use a mentor to help you think on your feet to beat what you face at any given time. Sometimes that means not playing at all.
    Last edited by Three; 09-13-2016 at 07:24 AM.

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