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Thread: Sharky's NFL play-o-the-weak 2016

  1. #27


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    For crying out loud... 6 pages and not yet one single pick from Sharky.
    Why dont you all go post your crap somewhere else and leave this thread alone?

  2. #28
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    Thank you Sharky. I used to love reading TThree's picks and his match ups. I would love to see more educated picks from anyone who would want to share, MOST OF ALL I WISH THERE WERE A THREAD ON BETTING THE MONEY LINE, avantages/disadvantages.

  3. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    If the line is -110 you can either bet $1100 to win 10 dimes ....
    again, I never heard of a 'dime' being $100...it is ALWAYS $1k bet, to win....so when I call a bookie and say "give me a dime on ...." that's COMMON knowledge that I want to wager to win $1000...so if it's -110, I am betting $1100 to win a dime, or $1000.

    ....since i never heard of it being only $100, I googled it:

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/dictio.../dime-bet.aspx

    http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/g...rms/g/dime.htm

    all say it's $1000

  4. #30
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    Thanks Sharky. I was just going by the terminology the Bickersons were using. It would be a horrible mistake for someone to use dime and think they meant $100. I either booked in person and said the actual amount or online and did typed the same. I never used an illegal bookmaker. Hopefully you just prevented someone's either costly mistake or big windfall error.

  5. #31
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    The 2015 AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) visit the NY JETS (10-6) who aside from their OT win over the Patriots, where the Pats won the coin flip, yet ‘the Genius’ choose to kickoff (3 passes later TD!), all of the JETS wins last season came against teams with LOSING RECORDS…. (OK…technically the Redskins 9-7 record is ‘winning’ …but 9 wins in that Div IS a losing record)….also, the JETS week #6 win over the Skins sent the Skins to a 2-4 record…the combined record of the 10 teams the JETS beat was 58-96, or just 46-92 when you take away the 12-4 Pats – exactly a 0.33 win rate - so they basically beat a bunch of 5-11 teams…the likes of Titans, Browns, Jaguars, Cowboys, NY Giants, Colts, & Miami (2)….sort of like who’s who at the top of this year’s draft board…LOL…perhaps that’s why even the JETS don’t have confidence in giving Fitz a contract…the BENGALS will be looking to start fast again this year (8-0; 7-0-1 ATS 2015)… they are more talented, deeper, and better coached…Take the BENGALS -2.5 for an EZ win to kickoff 2016

    GOOD LUCK!

    Sharky

  6. #32


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    "If the line is -110 you can either bet $1100 to win 10 dimes"

    NO! For Crissakes, a dime is $1,000!

    Sheesh!

    Don

  7. #33


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    "again, I never heard of a 'dime' being $100...it is ALWAYS $1k bet, to win....so when I call a bookie and say "give me a dime on ...." that's COMMON knowledge that I want to wager to win $1000...so if it's -110, I am betting $1100 to win a dime, or $1000."

    Of course it is. It's what I said all along. You are correct. (YOU'RE the one!! :-))

    My God, people can be dense here.

    Don

  8. #34
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    Sorry Don. I didn't pay much attention to the pissing contest but I thought you two were using the same terminology. My apologies.

  9. #35


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    I'm going to bow out of this thread. Too many egos here. I had been monitoring Dan Gordon's picks for 20 years, and there's no one in his league. Discussions of picking 60%-65% is just plain ridiculous to me.

    Don

  10. #36
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    The art to early season picks is finding the value. There is a lot of value in early season lines because each year the teams can be quite different than they were the year before but the lines are set by what the books think public perception is. The public is slow to see the new team that is very different than they were last year. Finding value in the early season is about spotting what teams are quite different than they were last year and getting the value of the lines that are more reflective of who the team was last year than the completely different team they are this year. This is something that is very difficult to do and takes a lot of research but some are very good at it. I never picked early season because I was not good at it. I like Sharky's pick but his posted reasoning is about who the teams were last year. If one or the other changed significantly this year the logic is faulty. I have paid 0 attention to the changes teams have had to make to their rosters or the injury situation.

    The obvious change is the Patriots are without Brady for 4 weeks. They should be fine because they still have Gronk. It is the absence of Gronk that makes them look mortal not the absence of Brady. Brady just has the glory position that gets the credit. I would look hard at NE +6 this week. Az was a great team last year and did amazingly well despite many injuries so I am sure they are still great especially if they are healthy again but the line most likely reflects the loss of Brady to heavily. Az never had much of a home field advantage. Knowing Garoppalo will start for the entire pre-season should have him much better prepared than if he comes off the bench. Don't forget NE has a very complete team (as does Az). What makes them great is a lot more than Brady. I have always be impressed by their depth and their next man up success when key players are out. Their only kryptonite is when Gronk is out. Nobody can replace him. I am not saying to bet this because this is totally off the top of my head. I am saying it makes sense that you might find value there and it makes a great example of possible value due to perception that may be misweighted. Whether or not it is there is for research to determine.

    I haven't paid any attention to the NFL since last season. Until we see what the teams gel into the value will be betting with or against the teams that have changed the most since last season that have lines more based on who they were last season than the team they are now.

  11. #37
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    Makes me think of a certain star quarterback, still wet behind the ears, whose anxiety
    on the big stage of the Super Bowl was his downfall. It was his "first rodeo" of course.

    I imagine that he has had a long time to reflect on his "choking"
    and will be awesome in his opening games, at home or away.



  12. #38


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    Makes me think of a certain star quarterback, still wet behind the ears, whose anxiety
    on the big stage of the Super Bowl was his downfall. It was his "first rodeo" of course.

    I imagine that he has had a long time to reflect on his "choking"
    and will be awesome in his opening games, at home or away.


    I dont think the result of that game had anything to do with anybody choking.

  13. #39
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    It is hard to pass when you are laying flat on your back.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

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