Sharky's NFL play-o-the-weak 2016

[DSchles]

"As a barometer at - 140 You have to win 57% of your games just to break even."

58.33%. Don't be sloppy with math statements!

Don

[Three]

16 weeks is 5 months? Stones in glass houses. Lol

Don't forget the post season.

[Three]

I'm sure he did. But readers won't have to. You didn't get that?

I just didn't want anyone to think it is done well with anything other than diligent research.

[DSchles]

"16 weeks is 5 months? Stones in glass houses. Lol"

Sigh.

Season begins Sept. 8. Super Bowl 2017 is February 5.

Let's all try to count to five together: 1) October, 2) November, 3) December, 4) January, 5) February.

The full NFL season is more than 21 weeks long.

Oh.

Don

[DSchles]

"Point was, the surprise of handicappers thinking they are making money but betting larger spreads."

Point was to break even at -140, you need to pick 58.33%. Was it really too hard for you to hit up 140/240 on your calculator and quote the proper percentage?

PLEASE don't try to defend sloppiness of thought.

Don

[DSchles]

I understand all of that. But that's just the point. Trying to extrapolate that to the entire year makes the endeavor very, very difficult.

Don

[DSchles]

How did he manage to go 14-6 stopping after week 16? You can count to 20, right?

Don

[DSchles]

"Please forgive me for making a typo and not extending out to two decimal places."

It wasn't a typo. Admit an error.

"Do you really think there are 16 weeks in 5 months? It's okay. Don't defend slop."

You're the one who insists on 16 weeks. There are 16 GAMES in a season, and every team has a bye week. There are 17 weeks in the REGULAR season. There are 21 weeks in the entire NFL season. Please don't profess to teach me how to count.

Don

[DSchles]

"Post 18. 10 dimes ($1000) per game works out to 16,000. 11 dimes ($1100) is 17,600. 9 wins and 7 losses work out to a profit of either $1,100 Or $1,300, depending on which dime we are to interpret from your meaning.

I really hope you're better at handicapping than you are at math. Are you really in the habit of betting $1,000 to win $909.09? Who in the world does that? And the 9-7 profit that way isn't $1,100; it's $1,181.81.

Don

[Three]

Today' NFL with instant replay and constant rule changes is clearly the most difficult sport to handicap. I used to tear it up in the 80s.

I picked over 60% every year for decades but the last 2 years my results were ploppy-like. That game changed too much and what I was so successful with no longer worked. As the game heads toward flag football it has become a different game. It is now a waste of time for me to try to handicap. It is still the best spectator sport though. That is why I respect those that are still successful.

[Three]

A total of 16 picks at $1,100 or $17600 (Or 10 sloppy dimes) will likely happen between September 11 And December 24, if Sharky plays 1 game a week as he stated. That's 105 days. Of course, this means there is now 21 days in a month.

If the line is -110 you can either bet $1100 to win 10 dimes or you can bet 10 dimes to win some odd amount that works out to the right odds. Most books and bettors prefer to be paid 10 dimes and not pay or be paid in cents.

There are 17 weeks to the regular season and the last 2 or 3 are tougher due to some teams bing eliminated and having nothing to play for and others having their post season future locked in already and not wanting to get their starters hurt. Sharky still picks those weeks. Then there are wild card game week, division round week, Conference Championship week, and the Super Bowl. That's 21 weeks to bet on pro football. Sharky only posts picks for the 17 weeks of the regular season. This thread is up to 47 posts and Sharky hasn't posted a pick yet. Show some respect and stop bickering.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Betting the favorite (in the NFL), something that I rarely do,
I certainly prefer the Money Line to the Point Spread !

[Three]

I would much rather get points than lay points for the reason Drunk stated (except for a point or 2). As for money line the book I was using seemed to use it to balance the action at a certain point. That made the line movement predictable if you correctly assessed the imbalance in action. The window was usually a brief few hours before they had enough action to suit them. It was on the morning of the game if I remember right. I often found moneyline value during this window. I am not sure that this was universally a practice by books or just a peculiarity associated with that book. If you pay attention to the lines you will spot trends like this one that may help you get the best lines for the week.