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Thread: Sharky's NFL play-o-the-weak 2016

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    Sharky's NFL play-o-the-weak 2016

    For those who are not familiar with my picks, I handicap the NFL games each week and post 1 “play” each week here on “tape”. For the record…I do put my money where my mouth is as I bet the same amount on each play each week… I have had great success using the same technique over the past 30 or so years….I started posting my picks on the old BJInfo discussion thread and continued offering them here (Thanks, Norm!) ...it is my ‘giveback’ to you cats

    “Tape” allows me review my picks….and opinion of teams at the time....take week 1 last year…I recall being SO high on that week’s play…Vikings -3 @ SF…only to have them promptly get waxed 20-3 on that 2nd MNF game….so even though I lost that bet, my system “won the war” IMO as justice was eventually served…in the very wise words of the now late, always great Dennis Green, “they are who we they were, that’s why we took the damn field!” (lol….it never gets old)…..Minnesota went on to 11-5 record and won their division, while 49ers went 5-11 and “were who we thought they were”….point is 1.) how any given Sunday….and 2.) what a difference 1 game makes…(10-6 vs 9-7)

    My “tape” on this site the past 3 years indicates records of 11-8, 14-6, and just 9-7 last year….for an impressive – if I do say so myself – 34-21 record….that’s a documented 62%...sure hope I didn’t just jinx myself..lol. ..keep in mind, of course, past results are no guarantee…
    Stay tuned for my play this week….I know who it is…just haven’t put in the bet yet…like to get it in b4 posting here changes the line…joking

    GOOD LUCK,

    Sharky

    PS: before I get asked again this year…”weak” is not a typo, or poor grammar…some 20 or so years ago a bookie friend of mine called my plays “weak”….LOL…but to this day…he still calls every week to ask for it…least it keeps us in touch

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    What's with such a low volume of plays?
    Not everything in life is gonna end up Jack, Deuce, Nine.

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    I will be relaxing at Saratoga Race Track today with some friends.

    There its a 12 race card. I will be betting between 3 and 5 races.

    Like Game / Table / Dealer Selection in blackjack, eh ?

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    That MIN/SF game was one of the stranger results of last season, when looking at the season as a whole. Really the only time SF looked like a real professional football team.

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    While what you've written is surely true, the problem is that there has to be some balance, in handicapping, between overall win percentage and volume. Taken to the absurd extreme, you could choose your Game of the Year, hope to win it, and then boast 100% winners, at 1-0!

    Going 14-6 is quite wonderful, but playing a whole year of the NFL (almost five months) to generate (at -110) 7.4 winners averages to, well, 1.5 net winners per month. So, to make any serious money, you have to be betting huge amounts on each game, which, for some, may be problematic. And, of course, the variance is enormous.

    The Westgate contest requires five picks per week, and, of course, although there are different winners each year, and last year's hero is this year's bum, the 2015 winner went 59-23 (for 33.7 net winners), picking 72.0%! The year before was even more remarkable, at 64-20 (42 net winners!) and 76.2%.

    And yes, I know very well that they get to pick on Friday against Tuesday's lines, but that isn't what makes a guy go 76.2%!!

    So, the bottom line is that, while one game per week is fun, and can be profitable, no one gets rich that way, even betting 10 dimes a game (last year would have grossed Sharky $1,300 for five months' work), so don't quit your day job. 64-20 at $10K per game? Well, that's an entirely different story! :-)

    Just sayin'.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    "Good luck Flash."
    I had not been to the track in a long time.
    I live close enough to Saratoga Race Track.
    I took friends, including my best buddy
    (since 1989), a true genius, as he had
    never been to a racetrack although he is
    >40 yrs. of age. In a matter of minutes
    he saw opportunities to arbitrage the
    place and show pools. He immediately
    watched changes in money wagered
    relative to the horse's win odds, while
    I generated ratios of money wagered
    between horses with similar win odds.

    We played more races than we didn't
    and only one horse was favored.

    We lost on 2 races. We won on 6 races.
    We left the track. It was a 12 race card.

    We did real well.

    There were sequential years when I earned
    more money than I was earning as a medical
    professional. It was pre-personal computers
    and it was pre-internet as well. The extensive
    paper work and travel simply burned me out.




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    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    Hey guys, let's not hijack Sharky"s thread. Start a horse racing thread.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

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    Yeah, you are right about this. I must apologize.
    I am 'guilty' of an egregious unintentional "hijacking"

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    ...no one gets rich that way, even betting 10 dimes a game (last year would have grossed Sharky $1,300 for five months' work), so don't quit your day job....
    in my parts, a "dime" is $1k...and an academia citing a subset of data???...why not use the whole enchliada?...or cite the 14-6 year => $74k over 5 months - not chump change to a lot of people.

    just sayin'

    Sharky

    ps: i would not advise anyone quitting their day jobs, or AP, either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    That is a pretty damn good return considered the low amount of work involved.
    I would be willing to bet Sharky puts a lot of work into it.

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    My point was that this is what would be required to make decent money and that, once again, this would be "problematic" for many people.

    I did quote your 14-6 record. But, you don't do that every year, and so I was simply pointing out that, in the years you won't pick 70% -- which is virtually all of them! -- people betting lesser amounts are not going to make anything meaningful, no matter how good your picks are.

    Don

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    "Let's look at it another way. An investment of 16k over 4 months

    $17,600 over five months. But I get the idea, and you're absolutely right. It's a 7.4% return for the period, which is fine. It would annualize to 17.7%, if he could do it all year, with other sports. Surely nothing wrong with that. However, yet again, I mention that quoting percentages is wonderful, but it can be very deceiving, unless you also mention the absolute amount of money made. Any time you see me, I will promise to take a single dollar bill that you give me and match it. So, you will instantly get a 100% return on your "investment," which now annualizes to 365%. Knock yourself out! :-)

    "yielded a return of $1,300. That is a pretty damn good return considered the low amount of work involved."

    Right again. Now, add that to all the rest of your money and the amount that that returns, and you'll find (I hope!) that this "pretty damn good return" doesn't do a helluva lot to move the overall needle.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    " ... it can be very deceiving"
    Yep. I am up a super-amazing 36% on all NFL bets in 2015

    but that is from carefully selected picks and resulted in a net

    win of under $400 ! I do not bet NFL, other than for fun.

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