Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 14 to 26 of 49

Thread: Spanish 21 Standard Deviation

  1. #14
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    A large chunk of the Spanish 21 EV comes from 777+7 super bonus. That is 0.036%, but it takes about 1373 days of daily playing to get this super bonus, so in this respect, Spanish 21 is really a lot more gambling than blackjack. This is discouraging.
    Last edited by aceside; 08-24-2021 at 08:47 AM.

  2. #15


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    If 0.036% is a "large chunk" of your Spanish 21 EV, then you're doing something wrong. Also note that, because the Super Bonus is a fixed amount, its contribution to EV gets smaller as your bet gets larger. Somewhere in Walker's book she shows the bet size beyond which going for the Super Bonus is no longer +EV.

  3. #16
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    If 0.036% is a "large chunk" of your Spanish 21 EV, then you're doing something wrong. Also note that, because the Super Bonus is a fixed amount, its contribution to EV gets smaller as your bet gets larger. Somewhere in Walker's book she shows the bet size beyond which going for the Super Bonus is no longer +EV.
    I recently calculated the EOR for the Stand-17 Spanish game myself. Here is the result:
    2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
    0.32% 0.42% 0.61% 0.76% 0.43% 0.09% -0.19% -0.08% -0.31% -0.94%
    Can you verify if this is correct? Based on this result, I just don't see any hope of HiLo for this game.

  4. #17


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Also note that, because the Super Bonus is a fixed amount, its contribution to EV gets smaller as your bet gets larger. Somewhere in Walker's book she shows the bet size beyond which going for the Super Bonus is no longer +EV.
    I imagine something like Lucky Ladies or Kings bounty betting $50 scoring 1000-1 win with max 25k payout. That relationship is pretty easy to figure out from a -EV perspective.

  5. #18
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I imagine something like Lucky Ladies or Kings bounty betting $50 scoring 1000-1 win with max 25k payout. That relationship is pretty easy to figure out from a -EV perspective.
    But the Lucky Ladies 1000:1 odd is a lot better. You are supposed to get it once in every 166 days of daily playing.

  6. #19


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    But the Lucky Ladies 1000:1 odd is a lot better. You are supposed to get it once in every 166 days of daily playing.
    You missed the point. Ma Nishtana.

  7. #20
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    You missed the point. Ma Nishtana.
    Sorry, I am learning English.

  8. #21


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Ignoring potential subtle differences in rules, your EORs are approximately 10 times too high. Think about it. According to

    https://wizardofodds.com/games/spanish-21/

    the entire house edge for a typical 8 deck S17 SP21 game is about 0.40% - 0.036% = 0.364%. Many of your single card EORs above are greater than this. They can't be correct.

    Erroneous data aside, your conclusion is also incorrect. With EORs this large, the game would be extremely countable but Wonging out would be critical!

  9. #22
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    Ignoring potential subtle differences in rules, your EORs are approximately 10 times too high. Think about it. According to

    https://wizardofodds.com/games/spanish-21/

    the entire house edge for a typical 8 deck S17 SP21 game is about 0.40% - 0.036% = 0.364%. Many of your single card EORs above are greater than this. They can't be correct.

    Erroneous data aside, your conclusion is also incorrect. With EORs this large, the game would be extremely countable but Wonging out would be critical!
    My EOR result is normalized to per deck. It is correct. Let me think about your suggestion of countability for a awhile.

  10. #23


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    My EOR result is normalized to per deck
    That's not how EORs are used.

  11. #24
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    0 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    That's not how EORs are used.
    Why do you say so?
    Last edited by aceside; 08-25-2021 at 05:47 PM.

  12. #25
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I have no idea how you calculated your EoRs or came to your conclusion. But, please stop posting stuff like this here.
    Last edited by Norm; 08-25-2021 at 05:40 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  13. #26
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Posts
    1,154


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I edited it out. Sometimes I post something to have fun.

Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. MJ: Standard Deviation
    By MJ in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 29
    Last Post: 03-09-2005, 03:30 PM
  2. newtobj: Standard deviation
    By newtobj in forum Blackjack Beginners
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 08-14-2003, 11:52 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.