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Thread: Critique my play

  1. #1


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    Critique my play

    I've been counting for a year (100 hours or so - recreational) and I'm always looking to improve. Any suggestions would be welcome.

    The game I play the most is 6D H17 DAS LS 20-25% pen $25 min. I play HiLo with about 50 RA indices (including 13 surrender indices) and I've logged many hours on CVBJ. I'm very concerned about longevity. My bankroll is 30K. I Wong in occasionally when I feel I can get away with it (haven't had to stand there too long) and I Wong out aggressively at TC-1 or -2 depending how much of the shoe is left. I spread 1:16 but only rarely will I raise my bet after a loss/push or lower it after a win. I never jump my bets. I almost never play two hands. If I show my max bet and I'm winning, I usually leave at the end of the shoe. I rarely play for > 2 hours at a time. I try to talk to others, yell "Monkey", hit the table and bitch when I lose, celebrate when I win. I buy-in for $400-500 but bring 3K with me to the table. I look for uncrowded tables with fast dealers who offer good penetration. I don't rathole chips cause I never fricking remember to do so and I'm scared the EITS will see me doing it. I always stand on 16 v 10 and I never split 10's; otherwise I play the indices correctly (including insurance). Haven't felt any heat... yet.

    How am I doing?

  2. #2


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    You are a loser with this game. You might as well just throw your money on the floor for the janitor. No more be said. (20-25% pen)

  3. #3


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    Are you winning? (that's the point)

    Sent from my LG-H955 using Tapatalk

  4. #4


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    "The game I play the most is 6D H17 DAS LS 20-25% pen."

    I assume you mean 75%-80% pen! We express penetration by what percentage of the cards we see, not by what percentage is behind the stop card. This, no doubt, is what led to the comment about your playing a vile game.

    Don

  5. #5


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    Yes, my bad. Pen is 75-80% (20-25% cut off). I'm up about 3K right now. Obviously, 100 hours is far too small a sample size to judge though. Just looking for any tweaks.
    Thanks

  6. #6
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    At 100 hours of play with a $30K BR I wouldn't be concerned with actual results. I would take down my bets after each payoff or push and then replace then after the cards are cleared. If you return them to a larger stack changing bets on a push doesn't look odd unless you are going from 1 chip to 2 chips. A bet ramp constructed properly allows you to jump a betting bin with only a double of your bet. This is a heat averse ramp. Think about it. You have 2 diametrically opposed things that you must balance. One is you don't want to move your bets much so the fewest bets in the ramp that is practical is best. The other is you want to be able to move bets with the count without large jumps in bet. Find a practical compromise that works well for both. Playing 2 hands is important in advantage situations especially with others at the table. Heads up it is more of a matter of preference. I prefer 2 spots. For a consistent RoR you should bet around 75% of your one spot optimal bet on each of 2 spots. Spreading to 2 spots can generate heat so 2 spots off the top can help with that if it is an issue.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cardguy View Post
    If I show my max bet and I'm winning, I usually leave at the end of the shoe. I rarely play for > 2 hours at a time.
    It is about limiting your exposure. Leaving shouldn't have anything to do with your current results. It should have to do with exposure. It is all one big session and as long as you don't base when to leave on results your individual sessions will be as the expected random distribution for your play. By enforcing goals you can skew those results by playing when you should have left or leaving when you should have stayed. When you leave should be about exposure and casino tolerances.

    Exposure can be how long you play. But if you pretty much flat bet you have had almost no exposure. So time by itself is not an indicator. You must factor in what you have been doing. If you show your max bet and your min bet you have exposed your spread. If you buy in for a lot for cumulative buy-in you have exposed that you have a big BR. They are much more tolerant if they believe you are underfunded for your bets. At some point you should make it look like you ran out of money and had to get more from an ATM, your room, your car or a bank. This maintains the possibility that you are underfunded and vulnerable to swings. The it is one big session is a reason to post a loss for a session or a day. If you have bought in for a lot it feels great to win it all back and have a little profit but it looks really bad. Leave a obviously happy loser that made a nice comeback from way down. They love these kinds of players. They keep coming back and losing more and enjoy it. Obviously you don't want to be red flagged by winning too much. Just understand the casino may view your win by how much you left with from your low point. They can even view leaving a loser as a big win if you were down bad enough. You showed you are capable of winning that much. If you use a win tolerance goal you should also have a point where you leave when you have no advantage and are down bad enough (I know I will catch some flak for this one). It should also be coupled with other influences like deteriorating conditions. If you expect good conditions soon due to the casino rhythms it may simply be time to take a break and wait. If your scouting leads you to believe conditions will deteriorate or not improve it is time to go.

    Everything you do should be done smart. What I mean by that is not following just the general rule but factoring in all other variables. You know when you have really been looking like what the catchers hunt and when you don't. Any decision should factor this into the calculation. It should factor everything you have to consider into the decision to stay or go. Sometimes you find rare opportunities that make staying a more attractive option. That must be factored in.

    As to blending in, there are things they expect counters to do when blending in. In my opinion betting and playing like a counter and acting just the way they expect a counter to act is not good. They either expect a singular focus and quiet demeanor or the talk a lot high 5 type persona. The latter is better than the former but you can pick any of dozens of types of people that play in a casino. Just study the other patrons and decide what would look the least like what they expect a counter to do and would be the most welcomed. You can be the asshole ploppy that always complains about how people play their hands constantly pointing out what would have happened if ... But they are generally not liked. They may be tolerated but they aren't liked. The art to getting away with card counting is just that. Playing in a way that the employees like having you there and that allows the suits to tolerate you. They usually don't want to back people off but if you make it so they will get grief at work for not acting they will always act. Notice the cues from the suits that you have overstayed your welcome. They are usually happy to get rid of you this way rather than the trouble of backing you off. Backoffs almost always happen on your return visit before you even play a hand. Leave at the first hint when your advantage is gone. This can often abate the process that follows you leaving and causes the BO on your return. Eventually you learn the limits for each shift for each casino. Note the suits that are quick to give you heat, make it clear it is time to go. Avoid their shifts.
    Last edited by Three; 08-26-2016 at 11:27 AM.

  7. #7


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    T3
    Relapse
    Brevity

  8. #8


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    it shows how some people are quick to judge without putting more thoughts into reading info. there is always a possibility of an error . In this case a communication error.

  9. #9


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    IMHO, that is a reasonable game to play. Your style of play appears rational. I would consider a couple of things. First, play 2 spots and get higher EV at the same variance. Occasionally, take insurance on a minimum bet when it can be seen by the pit and set the mindset so that when you need insurance at a high count it will be less of a give away. It generally takes EITS about hour to verify you as a counter AFTER they have been notified, so know that your 2 hour session increase your exposure. They are generally notified by the Pit, so watch the pit, if he/she makes a phone call and glances at you, then get up and leave. Your "show" needs to be directed at the Pit, dealers have protocols (they may or may not follow) for "black action", checks play, etc., pit people will refer potential threats to EITS.

    Not sure how large you bank is but remember that they are looking for you moving the bet with the count. So, reduce the number of bet changes to be less obvious. Flat betting can be useful in this case if you bank is large enough to support it but using it in this type of play will likely raise you variance. Plan and sim the plays before taking them to prime time. Measure your results against the sims to get some feedback on your game. Understand Zscore and use it as measuring stick. Review sessions with Zscores beyond +/-2 to validate a reason (had high number of splits and double and go them beat at high counts which is different than played two hours at moderate count movement and not many splits/double/BJ's but lost over 2SD) for the variance while understanding that you have too little samples to draw a true conclusion. Having confidence in your "game" with the results providing feedback will serve you well in tolerating those SD events, like losing 20 sessions in a row, that will drive you nuts. Just ask Lone Wolf........no don't, he will tell you soon enough.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  10. #10


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    I can't help thinking that you might be using more betting and playing cover than needed . If you're only frequenting one store then I can see that as a prudent strategy for longevity at that store. But if you have a decent rotation of stores, I would drop the cover and hammer away with a little shorter sessions.

  11. #11


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    Thanks so much for the feedback! T3, while Freightman likes to chide you for the lengthy posts, I would like to thank you for taking the time to give such a thoughtful reply. I confess I don't know how I could change my ramp to be more heat averse without costing a bundle. My current ramp is TC 0-$25, 1-$50, 2-$100, 3-$200, 4-$300, 5-$400. I generally try to leave after I've shown my max bet mainly because I don't want to drop from $400/hand back to the table minimum when the new shoe starts. I've wondered if I'm paranoid about this. Don't ploppies often start every shoe with a minimum bet until they get a feel for the "flow"? I also try to be liked by the staff as you recommend.
    Stealth, I assume that flat betting requires either Wonging in/out (backcounting too long scares me), or a big bet jump. Are you suggesting something like this: TC<2 $25, TC 2-4 $200, TC 5 or more $400. While I would be making far fewer bet changes, I would worry that the big jumps would raise red flags.
    Bigdaddy, yes this is my home store where I play once or twice a week, so longevity is key!

  12. #12


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    Cardguy,

    Are you using software? CVCX, CVBJ, CVData?

  13. #13


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    Yes, I use CVBJ and CVCX regularly (but not CVData).

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