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Thread: What kills the progression player?

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    Member Picasso's Avatar
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    What kills the progression player?

    If you’re a progression player, you need to know the enemy, namely, why your progression failed

    Top 3 reasons:

    #3 Bankroll
    You didn’t bring enough money with you at the table to see your progression thru. Born looser

    #2 Playing conditions
    Rules and table limits are crucial, and when these are poor, so are the results

    #1 Variance
    I have seen 22 hands without a single win. There were pushes and surrenders, but no wins. Variance will kill you.

    Now, now, I know that the peanut gallery here will say only stupidity kills the progression player, but I’m not too sure about that
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    Last edited by Picasso; 08-19-2016 at 02:37 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Peanuts are better for you than progressions. What kills progression players is progressions.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Peanuts are better for you than progressions. What kills progression players is progressions.
    I see, said the blind man - how about progressions within a bucket? (Or what look like progressions)

    Meanwhile, here I am 8 hours from home attending a wedding of a friends son. Somehow, wife left the suit bags at home. No dresses, no pants. Anyone know the protocol of attending a wedding in boxer shorts and Italian leather shoes. She's out shopping. Oh, almost forgot - have a nice dress shirt.

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    What kills progression players is time. In the long run they lose more than flat bettors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Peanuts are better for you than progressions. What kills progression players is progressions.
    It is interesting that betting progression post keeps coming up. Just yesterday I was reading the chapter on "roulette" in Exhibit CAA: Beyond Counting and it talked about using a betting progression to crush the game of roulette when the "en prison" is in effect. Without the "en prison" is in effect a more powerful betting progression is needed. The progression involves decreasing you bet by one unit after each win, loss, or push. This way the the betting progression is anathemn to the table limit. It mention about the Fuchs Progression invented by the creator of KnockOut blackjack. I guess that roulette is a game vulnerable to betting systems. Page 446 in Beyond Counting.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Yes, James does have a sense of humor.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    table limits(short run), bankroll(long run), and house edge(long run)

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    Member Picasso's Avatar
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    You are correct LoneWolf, table limits and bankroll are technical issues for the run, but important ones. When developing my progression, variance was (is) the tough one to beat. I mean, if one is playing a progression and loses many more hands than he/she wins (or no long winning streak), there goes you ‘positive’ progression, and when you don’t get a win for 10-15-20 hands in a row, that’s a bye-bye to your ‘negative’ progression. There is a way to conquer variance, but it does take a bit of imagination and simplicity. Thanks Mr Wolf for taking part in the discussion in a positive way.

    (please, I do not need to be preached «progressions don't work», I've heard it all before...)


    preacher.jpg
    Progressions don't work

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    Quote Originally Posted by Picasso View Post
    You are correct LoneWolf, table limits and bankroll are technical issues for the run, but important ones. When developing my progression, variance was (is) the tough one to beat. I mean, if one is playing a progression and loses many more hands than he/she wins (or no long winning streak), there goes you ‘positive’ progression, and when you don’t get a win for 10-15-20 hands in a row, that’s a bye-bye to your ‘negative’ progression. There is a way to conquer variance, but it does take a bit of imagination and simplicity. Thanks Mr Wolf for taking part in the discussion in a positive way.

    (please, I do not need to be preached «progressions don't work», I've heard it all before...)


    preacher.jpg
    Progressions don't work
    There is no way to conquer or take control of variance using betting progression. It is a gimmick to say using a progression you can take control of variance.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    You can change the variance. You can't change the EV.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    You can change the variance. You can't change the EV.
    How do you change variance using betting progression?

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    "How do you change variance using betting progression?"

    Different progressions advocate different bet sizes. The average squared result of the bets determines the variance, so if you change the bet sizes, you change the variance, per x bets made. But, you can't change the average rate at which you lose your money (e.v.) for those bets.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    "How do you change variance using betting progression?"

    Different progressions advocate different bet sizes. The average squared result of the bets determines the variance, so if you change the bet sizes, you change the variance, per x bets made. But, you can't change the average rate at which you lose your money (e.v.) for those bets.

    Don
    If you had unlimited bankroll and there were no table limits, martingale would bankrupt a casino. The problem is both those dont exist. So people saying table limits is not one of the factors, is completely wrong. But you also need an unlimited or HUGE bankroll to overcome a massive losing streak such as roulette having 9 of the colors every 100 spins for example. Just figure out the computation in the game you're attacking and have enough money to double up all the way until the highest possible losing streak and you cant be beat. Thats why table limits are in place in case Bill gates comes marching in and martingales the roulette wheel all day every day. I also want to take back my original point about house edge. The edge doesnt matter if you have unlimited bankroll and no table limits. Martingale would win out.

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