REPOST Dealer Upcard Probability, Bust Rate, and Bust Frequency vs. HiLo TC

**Dog Hand** · 07-26-2016, 06:03 AM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

Folks,

Below are three figures derived from three two-billion-round CVData sims for a 6D, H17, 75% pen game.

The first figure, "Upcard Rate", shows the probability for each rank to be the dealer's upcard. Note that the "X" has a separate scale on the right of the figure. No surprises here: as the TC rises, the "Smalls" probability falls, the "Neutrals" probability changes very little, and the "Large" probability increases.

The second figure, "Dealer Bust Rate for All Upcards", shows the probability of a dealer bust given the indicated upcard. If you're having trouble reading the legend, at TC=0 the lines, from the top down, are for 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 7, 8, 9, X, and A. This information might be helpful if you're playing some of the new sidebets like "Dealer Bust 21" (see http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackj.../8/#dealerbust).

The third figure, "Dealer Bust Frequency for All Upcards", shows the probability that the dealer will get the indicated upcard and then bust. Here at TC=0, from the top down, the lines are for X, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 7, 8, 9, and A. The X dominates, due to the plurality of X's compared to the other upcards.

Hope this information is useful!

Dog Hand
Attachment 1293 Attachment 1294 Attachment 1295

Folks,

I'm reposting this from the Subscription Area by request.

Dog Hand

P.S. I don't know why the Attachments appear only as links: in the original post, they are visible. #1293 is the Upcard Rate, #1294 is the Bust Rate, and #1295 is the Bust Frequency.

**Three** · 07-26-2016, 06:42 AM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

The X dominates, due to the plurality of X's compared to the other upcards.

If you divide the X percentages by 4 you see what they are for each of the 4 ten value cards. Not much of a surprise unless you were thinking X was always the next worse upward if you are hoping for a dealer bust like after a double that got a crap card giving a total less than 17.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 07-26-2016, 07:09 AM

Thanx muchly

**21forme** · 07-26-2016, 08:32 AM

When I click on each of the 3 attachment links, I get "Invalid Attachment specified. If you followed a valid link, please notify the administrator"

**Three** · 07-26-2016, 08:37 AM

They work on my Mac

**21forme** · 07-26-2016, 10:18 AM

Maybe the attachments are still part of the subscription area. Norm?

**Frank Galvin** · 07-26-2016, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by 21forme

When I click on each of the 3 attachment links, I get "Invalid Attachment specified. If you followed a valid link, please notify the administrator"

Good to see you post here again!!!

**21forme** · 07-27-2016, 08:48 AM

Thanks Frank. Since Norm hasn't responded and and still can't view the grpahs, I will return to the other forum. Give my regards to Laura Fischer.

**Norm** · 07-27-2016, 09:01 AM

Contrary to the claims of some, I do not read anywhere near every post. If someone has a problem, they can e-mail me. I have no idea why 21forme cannot see the attachments. They are not protected. But, I have moved the original post to the non-subscriber area: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ity#post114461

**21forme** · 07-27-2016, 10:40 AM

Thank you, Norm. My apology. Based on this, I now no longer believe those claims. Your response time to support email is legendary, so I just assumed...